US Deploys F-35s in Finland along Russian Border

According to the Washington and Helsinki press, the United States has begun negotiations with Finland to secure F-35 deployments along the Finnish-Russian border.

Following Finland's formal accession to NATO on April 4, 2023, the United States is negotiating a Defense Cooperation Agreement with Finland that would allow the country to establish a comprehensive military infrastructure to facilitate the forward deployment of American F-35s. The agreement is expected to pave the way for the large-scale deployment of elements of the US armed forces on Finnish territory and facilitate the use of Finnish facilities, including the storage of pre-deployed weapons and ammunition.

The negotiations are not expected to conclude before 2024, but are expected to proceed smoothly with Helsinki seeking greater integration and interoperability with US military power and to host a larger American military presence.

While Finland sided with the Axis powers during the Second World War, it maintained a strictly neutral foreign policy throughout the Cold War from 1945 onwards, but now NATO membership marks an abrupt change.

Finland's accession to NATO has significantly doubled the length of the alliance's border with Russia, and Russia has responded by significantly increasing the number of asymmetric mobile missile systems, such as the Iskander ballistic missile systems deployed on the Russian-Finnish border.

The deployment of American F-35s on Finnish territory is likely to be seen as a major threat by Russia and will lead Russia to deploy more troops to the Finnish border.

Developed under the Joint Strike Fighter program, the F-35 is primarily designed for strike operations and, accordingly, is equipped with advanced stealth and electronic warfare capabilities well suited to penetrating advanced air defense networks.

The F-35's deep internal ammunition bays allow it to carry a wide range of munitions, including penetrator munitions to neutralize hardened fortifications and B61 nuclear bombs.

About 200 B61 nuclear bombs are currently stored at six air bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey for use by the United States and its allies as part of nuclear sharing agreements.

Within range of the Finland-based F-35s will be critical targets in Russia, including Moscow itself. These F-35s will significantly increase the pressure on the Russian air defense network, which is currently facing F-35s on other western, northern, eastern borders.

The US has escalated F-35 deployments not only to Central Europe but also to East Asia and the Arctic, so that F-35 deployments to Finland are in line with broader efforts to increase the presence of this stealth strike aircraft along all possible borders.

In 2022, the Finnish Air Force placed an order for 64 F-35A fighter jets, which are expected to begin deliveries in 2026 and replace the country's fourth-generation F-18 Hornet fighters.

The F-35 was selected by Finland in a tender over multiple competing European-designed aircraft, including the Swedish Gripen and the Eurofighter Typhoon, and is the latest in a series of multiple tenders in which the American stealth-capable jet has consistently won due to its unique capabilities.

Lockheed Martin F-35A

The F-35 is one of four fifth-generation fighter/bombers in worldwide service today, along with the American F-22, Chinese J-20 and Russian Su-57, and is therefore the only NATO-compatible stealth strike fighter in production. We observe that the scale of production continues to increase, with the Russian rival Su-57 being extensively battle-tested in Ukraine, including complex missions such as air defense suppression and air-to-air combat. 

However, the Su-57 lacks a number of key technologies seen in the F-35 and J-20, and with only 10 aircraft currently in service, it does not have a significant and appreciable force multiplier effect. However, the increased presence of the F-35 on the Russian borders makes it imperative to develop and increase the number of Su-57s.

Sukhoi Su-57

Lacking a comprehensive and adequate fifth-generation fleet, Russia instead relies heavily on both surface-to-air missile systems for its air defense, such as the S-400, which was developed specifically to overcome stealth targets, and offensive assets such as the Iskander missile system, which can strike key air bases and neutralize fighter jets on the ground.

While the F-35 itself is promising, it is still seen as far from ready for high-intensity warfare, with nearly 800 major and critical system failures that will take a long time to fix, and its all-weather combat readiness rates, especially when problems with its engine are included, are by far the worst in the US Air Force, a fact acknowledged by the US Air Force and Congress. 

However, once the wide-ranging issues limiting its performance are resolved, the F-35, with its presence on Russia's borders, will represent one of the main and most capable security threats facing the Russian Armed Forces. We will watch and see how Russia responds to this threat.