defense

Why is the Western World, which sells F-35s and Rafales to Greece, not selling F-16s and Eurofighters to Turkey?

It is quite meaningful that while NATO member Greece easily purchases F-35 and Rafale jets, the United States and its like-minded allies apply ‘double standards’ against another NATO member and Western ally, Turkey.

As of 17 July 2019, Turkey was prevented from purchasing fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets from the United States due to its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defence system. Since then, Turkey has been in the process of procuring fighter jets to replace the package of 100 F-35s, which was expected to be owned by the Turkish Air Force in the next 10 years, but which has now been definitively shelved, accompanied by the mehteran march.

Is Greece Turkey's Rival?

The Russian Federation is the primary threat to Turkey when acting together with the allies under the umbrella of NATO. But Russia is not the issue. Although Russia-Turkey rivalry is a historical reality, in the current circumstances, a peaceful bilateral relationship based on foreign trade should continue to be the fuel of the Ankara-Moscow line. Developments in Turkestan and trans-Caucasus geographies, on the other hand, should be carried out in a sweet rivalry by observing mutual balances as it is today.

On the other hand, whether we accept it or not, the first traditional threat, let's not call it a threat, rival for Turkey in its region is definitely Greece. The second is Israel. Iran, Syria and Iraq, on the other hand, are countries that are occasionally fuelled as ‘artificial threats’ to Turkey, but none of them are or can be of Turkey's calibre. Iran, a paper tiger whose policy is based on ‘managing the situation’ with its neighbours, cannot be a rival for Turkey. Although fears of a regime export from this country to Turkey after 1979 are pumped up, Turkey's ‘imperial culture’ and Anatolian civilisation will not allow any religion or sect to become dominant in these lands. Especially in a Turkish economic model that has turned tourism revenues into a lifeline for itself, no regime can take root in these lands when the people's priority is ‘money’.

Therefore, the countries that Turkey will take as a reference for its own self-security and partly see as rivals are Greece and Israel. Both countries, which in reality are not on the scale of Turkey, are flourishing under the patronage of the West. For this reason, relations with these two countries are mostly dependent on certain dynamics that go beyond bilateral relations. It is not only Greece or Israel, but sometimes the entire Western world. For example, it is not possible to maintain a Turkey-Israel relationship independent of the Palestinian Question. Nor can there be a Turkish-Greek relationship isolated from Cyprus or the problems in the Aegean! First of all, history tells us Turks that it cannot be. Even the NATO alliance does not make sense at this point.

The Western World Plays a Game of Double Standards between Turkey and Greece

Despite the fact that Turkey's ‘traditional rival’ Greece had the Russian-made S-300 air defence system long before Ankara, Athens was not offended by Washington and agreed to sell the F-35. And this after having shelved the sale of the F-35 to Turkey under the pretext of purchasing the S-400 system. While US Department of Defence officials claimed that the F-35 fighter jets could not ‘coexist’ with the S-400, which Washington classifies as a Russian ‘intelligence gathering platform’, the S-300, the inferior version of the S-400 in Greek hands, was ignored and not even on the agenda.

In 1999, Turkey joined the F-35 Lightning II development programme and was to purchase 100 F-35As from Lockheed Martin. As a development partner, Turkey contributed a sum of $1.4 billion to the programme. In the context of the industrial production partnership, around 900 components were already being produced by Turkish defence industry companies. However, due to its insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 air defence system, Washington officially ‘kicked’ Turkey out of the F-35 programme in 2019.

In contrast to Turkey, which was pushed out of the F-35 programme, Greece is now being drawn into it. The other day, Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias announced that the Biden administration had approved the purchase of 20 F-35 fighter jets worth $3.5 billion to create a strong and deterrent air force in the region. It is known that negotiations with Lockheed Martin have begun. The signing of the purchase agreement is expected to be finalised very soon. In this framework, Greece is expected to receive 20 F-35 jets by 2028, four years after the purchase agreement, and the option to purchase an additional 20 jets can be activated at any time.

The US had previously approved the sale of 40 F-35 fighter jet packages totalling $8.6 billion to Greece. The purchase aims to further strengthen Greece's air force, which already uses French-made Rafale fighter jets.

While the United States and another important NATO country, Germany, prevent Turkey from purchasing modern fighter jets such as the F-35, F-16 Viper and Eurofighter Typhoon, the full support given to Athens by Paris, led by Biden and Emmanuel Macron, to modernise the Greek Air Force with advanced jets such as the F-35 and Rafale naturally disturbs Ankara. And it should.

Turkey is undoubtedly continuing to endeavour to find alternative courses of action. First of all, in order to compete with the 20 F-35s that Greece is expected to add to its inventory by 2028, Ankara aims to produce at least 20 units of the fifth generation fighter jet MMU KAAN, which is currently under development at TAI, by 2028.

It is quite meaningful that while NATO member Greece easily purchases F-35 and Rafale jets, the United States and its like-minded allies apply ‘double standards’ against another NATO member and Western ally, Turkey. Turkey, which has no objection to hosting NATO's only Allied Land Command Headquarters in the Şirinyer neighbourhood, is now being prevented from purchasing both the F-35 and the Eurofighter Typhoon on flimsy pretexts. Although Turkey's efforts to purchase the 40-aircraft F-16 Viper package have only recently been ‘approved’ after years of delays due to US political manoeuvres, the light at the end of the tunnel has not yet been shown.

In January, Washington agreed to sell Turkey 40 F-16 Block 70 jets, along with 79 modernisation kits and a variety of missiles and ammunition worth $23 billion (at a price tag almost three times the normal price tag), conditional on Ankara's approval of Sweden's NATO membership.

Washington took no action against Greece, which also uses the Russian-made S-300 air defence system. It authorised the sale of 20 F-35s to Athens. Thus, the gap in air force capabilities between ‘traditional enemies’ Turkey and Greece has widened.

Why is Germany preventing Turkey from buying Eurofighter Typhoon jets?

The F-16 deal with the US has not yet progressed despite ‘approval’ statements. The content and price of the package continues to be a matter of debate. ‘Maybe 20 Vipers can be purchased instead of 40 Vipers’, it is said. In the final analysis, the Turkish Air Force needs at least 40 advanced fighter jets. Despite the high unit cost among the options, Ankara's preference was Typhoon, a joint German, British, Spanish and Italian production. Despite the active support of the British and the consent of the Spanish and Italians, according to the news leaking from the negotiations, Germany is not yet ready to approve this sale. Berlin, which had previously blocked the sale of Typhoon to Saudi Arabia, later announced that it had approved the sale. Undoubtedly, this sale was realised as a result of the negotiations between Riyadh and Berlin. We now understand that a London-centred bargaining process is being conducted between Ankara and Berlin. Last week, Air General İsmail Güneykaya, Commander of the Combat Air Force, was in the UK. With this visit, the discourse of ‘Eurofighter is coming’ started to be spoken in the defence diplomacy lobbies.

On the other hand, when Eurofighter CEO Giancarlo Mezzanatto met with journalists at the Farnborough International Airshow (FIA) in the UK last week, he stated that ‘Turkey was interested in Eurofighter, but the sale was blocked by Germany’. I believe that Mezzanatto did not mention anything new, but rather summarised the situation so far, and that progress has been made in London, but that Germany is not yet ready to announce that it has ‘authorised the sale’ for various reasons. Therefore, it seems that the German mystery in the Eurofighter sale will continue for a while.

Why Turkey's Eurofighter Insistence?

Turkey was acting within the framework of a force development plan to integrate the MMU Kaan into an F-35 and F-16 based air force structure. In parallel with the developments I have summarised above, both the F-35 and F-16 procurement/modernisation process has been jeopardised. A dead end is seen. The wall has been built by Washington's senseless regional policies, and its collapse seems destined in due course, again at Washington's whim. In the meantime, Turkey continues to seek to procure the modern fighter jets needed by its Air Force from other sources, taking into account regional balances.

Ankara was unaware that its insistence on buying the S-400 would turn into a Washington paranoia. Unable to convince its ally, Turkey inevitably had to resort to the purchase of Russian-made fighter jets. However, the possibility of Turkey turning to Russia for fighter jets after the S-400 defence system has deeply shaken the reputation of Russian weapons in Turkey's eyes after their poor performance in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, the option of purchasing Russian fighter jets has almost completely disappeared. Ankara was also worried about the possible imposition of Western sanctions on the Turkish defence industry in the event of signing any purchase agreement with Moscow, possibly leading it to close the Russian book.

This led the Turkish Air Force to consider the Eurofighter as an interim solution and a kind of insurance policy against the possibility that the US might slow down or block the F-16 sale and modernisation package.

While the Biden administration appears to be in no hurry to move forward with the $23 billion F-16 deal, and to have tied it to the Turkish parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO bid, alternatives are being sought through the Ministry of Defence. In a way, Ankara's request for 40 Eurofighters went hand in hand with the procurement process for 40 F-16Vs. Turkey's procurement plan became clearer when Yaşar Güler, the Minister of National Defence, stated in parliament during the budget negotiations last year that Ankara was interested in purchasing both F-16s and Eurofighters at the same time. The Typhoon procurement process, which means adding a new cost of more than 10 billion USD to the F-16 purchase cost for Turkey, was considered as a costly and unexpected commitment by the outside world.

Minister Güler said: "We want to buy the Eurofighter. It is a very effective aircraft. These aircraft are jointly produced by the UK, Germany and Spain. Both the UK and Spain say ‘yes’ and now they are trying to convince Germany." ‘The UK and Spain say “We will solve this problem”,’ he said, declaring that Turkey was continuing to negotiate the deal with the UK first. Thus, Ankara's choice to procure the Eurofighter pointed to an orientation that kept Turkey on the side of the ‘West’ in terms of turning towards a European solution instead of Russian or Chinese options, and saving Turkey from being exposed to American sanctions or diplomatic pressure in the field of defence.

While Ankara's contacts with London have always been positive, one of the biggest obstacles to a possible supply agreement remains Berlin's opposition. Since the jets are produced by a consortium consisting of Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK, the German objection must be overcome. The German government does not favour the use of German-made weapons in the hands of the Turkish army, such as the Leopard tanks of the past, for internal security and/or operations in Syria. The Green Party in Olaf Scholz's coalition is waiting to be persuaded as the front-line party against exports to Turkey. Germany had previously blocked a similar Eurofighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia, angering the British authorities. The German trade union IG Metall also held a demonstration in Manching to remind the German government that it was a mistake to oppose large-scale purchases from non-European countries and the termination of programmes such as the Eurofighter.

Conclusion

In 2019, Turkey was removed from the F-35 programme by the United States. The reason given was that Ankara had acted at Moscow's behest and purchased the S-400 defence weapon system. In this sense, let me underline that I am one of those who did not favour Turkey's purchase of the S-400 from Russia in the past. This strategy was a mistake, and although it may have had some palliative gains, I believe that it did no more than serve to keep Turkey oscillating between the West and Russia like the pendulum or pendulum of a cuckoo clock.

On the other hand, what is done is done. The West has imposed a disproportionate bill for the F-35 on the Turkish defence industry. Washington, which is busy creating obstacles to the F-16V package , seems to continue to stall Ankara until the new President comes to replace Biden. In this situation, there seems to be no other way for Ankara to hold on against Washington and its supporter Paris, which upgraded the F-16 Block 50/50+ fighter jets in Greece's hands to Viper level and gave 24 Rafale and 20 F-35s, than to combine its interests with London, which is the only branch in the Western pillar. Our recent history tells us that the British pursue an ambivalent and, when the time comes, a ‘sell-out’ foreign policy. Without forgetting this reality, I believe that the continuation of a London-based fighter jet procurement process will ultimately ensure the functionality of the bridge between Berlin and London.

Germany's obstacle will surely be removed one day. As far as we know, Berlin wants to maintain its mortgage on the weapons it sells. Probably, it does not want Turkey to use the Eurofighters against the PKK or its extension YPG elements. What a great alliance. I find it hard to understand how a German arms sales policy that stands side by side with terrorists against Turkey, which is fighting against terrorists, can be justified. I am one of those who think that no one can threaten Turkey with the sale of fighter jets and Ankara can find other countries for such purchases. However, I also believe that we can move forward by correctly reading London's post-Brexit policies that overlap with Turkey's. I do not find it right that the West applies a double standard in arms procurement between Turkey and Greece. I also do not see it necessary to make Moscow the kibla by using this double standard as an excuse. In the final analysis, I also think that we are not yet at the point where we can part ways with the West once and for all. Despite some of its dilemmas, I see the benefit of continuing to go through London in terms of our expectations in the short term.