Why won't the US give F-16s to Turkey?

According to The Washington Post, the relentless geopolitical competition with China and Russia has forced the United States to bend the line in its relations with President Erdoğan. The US has agreed to sell F-16s to Turkey. Europe also made some concessions to Turkey. As a result, Sweden received Ankara's approval for NATO membership. But what actually happened?

At the 2022 NATO Madrid Summit, Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral Memorandum of Understanding outlining a roadmap to membership to make progress in addressing Turkey's security concerns. Following Finland's accession to the alliance on 4 April 2023, the US and other NATO member states began to press Turkey to accelerate Sweden's ratification before the Vilnius summit. It is likely that the negotiations were initially positive, as on 7 July the Hungarian Parliament was informed that Sweden's membership ratification would be discussed. Before Vilnius, there was talk that the issue of Sweden's ratification would also be discussed in the Turkish Grand National Assembly on 8-9 July. However, whatever happened later, the Hungarian Government had to announce that it would discuss Sweden's status in its Parliament at a later date instead of 7 July. Therefore, this announcement by Budapest automatically cancelled the need for Ankara to play the parliamentary card.

On the other hand, on the eve of Vilnius, on 9 July, Erdogan brought to the agenda another discourse other than the PKK and the F-16 issue when he said "pave the way for our EU membership (and we will pave the way for Sweden)" in relation to Sweden's membership. Erdoğan's approach was read as a sign of a hard bargaining in Vilnius before the summit. Nevertheless, the expectation that Turkey would give the green light for Sweden suddenly increased in Western capitals. As a matter of fact, this is what happened. 

On the evening of 10 July, NATO's outgoing Secretary General Stoltenberg joyfully announced that a trilateral agreement had been signed between Turkey, Sweden and NATO and that Sweden's membership was now imminent. After 3-4 days of traffic, the so-called "agreement" was based on Sweden's fulfilment of its commitments to meet Turkey's expectations in the fight against terrorism and Washington's delivery of the F-16s, although there was no clear text.

The main issue I would like to emphasise here is not Sweden's membership but the ambivalent policy pursued by Washington. Ostensibly, the Biden administration brought to the agenda in Vilnius that it could approve the procurement of 'F-16 fighter jets and modernisation kits'. As you know, Turkey, which has been an F-16 manufacturer since 1984 and a user since 1986, was excluded from the F-35 programme by the Trump administration on the pretext of purchasing the S-400 missile defence system from Russia. Moreover, the US administration did not fail to activate the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) against its ally Turkey. Despite this, Ankara, for some reason, knocked on the door of Trump's successor Biden with a 40-aircraft F-16V procurement package on 30 September 2021. With this move, Turkey became a voluntary soldier in a process in which it was almost dragged to become a pariah at the American door. And why?

The biggest capability deficiency Turkey needs for deterrence is to meet its need for advanced fighter jets. Turkey needs to procure 40 F-16s from the US in order to reach the 2007 fleet size of 270 F-16s, which is the third largest fleet in the world, but which is now classified as obsolete. Whoever in Ankara made this calculation, it was predicted that Washington, which did not give the F-35s, would have no difficulty in giving the F-16s. Some even predicted that these F-16s could be easily purchased from the US in return for the USD 1 billion 450 million Turkey had paid to the US authorities, some of which was left over from the F-35 programme. But that was not the case. 

In the last two years, very little progress has been made in the F-16 procurement package, which is now estimated to be worth USD 20 billion. By the way, as a parenthesis. When Turkey joined the F-35 programme as a co-producer for a package of 100 aircraft, the amount Turkey had to pay was estimated at USD 16 billion. Now, despite paying 4 billion USD more than this amount, it seems unlikely that I can make sense of the acceptance of this payment for 40 F-16 Vs, which are far inferior to the F-35. Nevertheless, members of the US Congress have added the condition that Turkey must approve Sweden's accession to NATO as a condition for the sale of the F-16 package. The official source of this condition was a joint letter signed by Republicans and Democrats in February of this year from Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), co-chairs of the US Senate NATO Observer Group, to President Joe Biden requesting that "F-16 fighter jet sales to Turkey not begin until NATO protocols [for Finland and Sweden] are approved". Meanwhile, some members of Congress have gone even further, stating that Turkey's acceptance of Sweden's participation would not be enough for them to approve Ankara's request for F-16s.

The summit was characterised by positive signals of real progress in the fight against terrorism, in the F-16 negotiations and in Sweden's eventual accession, but in reality no progress was made. Nevertheless, in Vilnius the parties declared that they had reached a certain degree of consensus on what to do in these three pillars. Could this mark the beginning of a positive new phase? I don't think so.

Biden, who met Erdogan on the sidelines of the summit, said to the cameras, "We have reached a historic agreement on the admission of Turkey and Sweden to NATO. President Erdoğan, thank you for your courage, leadership and diplomacy. This summit has reaffirmed our commitment to NATO defence, and I hope we can continue to make it even stronger." Look, there are neither F-16s nor PKK/YPG in it. 

Meanwhile, we don't know much about some things. Ankara and Washington have not even closed the book on the F-35 programme partnership. They have not settled the account. Technically, I do not think that the US will financially approve the F-16V package until this account is closed. Probably, the US is putting the purchase of the S-400s from Russia as a justification for Turkey's exclusion from the programme, and therefore, as a justification that Turkey does not meet the criteria for programme partnership, in front of its interlocutors in Ankara. This may be seen as an American-style approach, but in technical terms, for example, due to the exclusion of Turkish defence industry companies from the production chain of F-35 parts, the programme had to make new agreements and open new production facilities in order to produce these parts. This imposed an additional financial burden on the F-35 programme. They may be insisting that Turkey, which caused this financial burden, should compensate for this loss. It is impossible for me to know what the reality is from a financial perspective, but this is my guess. 

Beyond all these, the Biden Administration is not sincere towards Turkey on the F-16 V package. The evaluations of the members of the Congress may be intended to bind the sale of F-16s to certain conditions. Even if the Swedish condition is met today, as they have previously raised in Congress, there may even be a condition that these aircraft should not fly close to Greek islands in the Aegean airspace. Therefore, the attitude of the Congress should only be seen as a "Congressional Notification", but the Biden administration should have taken the initiative and approved the sale of the aircraft to Turkey by now. Instead of doing this, Biden used Congress as a shield, or rather, he followed the policy of 'adjusting' Ankara under the pretext of Congress, and he still continues to do so. Just as the White House had previously sold arms to Saudi Arabia in spite of the Congress, a similar attitude could have been very valid for Turkey, a NATO ally that was expected to act as a shield against the Russian threat. 

Currently, Biden's policy of making Congress happy has evolved into a policy of upsetting Turkey. While flattering Erdoğan with his last statement, he did nothing more than trying to save the agenda and the day in Vilnius. Unfortunately, under these circumstances, I do not expect Washington to approve the sale of F-16s to Turkey in the near future. We need to see and accept this. 

Two contracts were signed between ASELSAN and TAI on 13.07.2023 for the modernisation of F-16 Block 30 aircraft, worth TL 2,618,751,172 and USD 132,078,069, and TL 18,073,289,646 and USD 1,065,303,880, with a total value of TL 20,692,040,818 and USD 1,197,381,949. Within the scope of these contracts, aircraft deliveries are expected to take place between 2023 and 2033. 

In the meantime, I foresee an improvement in the F-16 Free Package, and then a Viper-equivalent modernisation of all Block 30/40/50 aircraft as the primary remedy. In the meantime, I see it as an imperative need for the F-16s expected to come from the USA to be tied to a final schedule in terms of whether they will come or not, for example, if they cannot be purchased until the end of 2024, then the purchase of at least 40 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft should be scheduled. Moreover, even in this case, the number of active aircraft we have will be around 270 based on 2027. Of course, I am not one of those who are thinking of replacing F-16s with armed Hürjets and combat UAVs such as Kızılelma, which are still in the development phase. I would not even want to think that the top management of the Turkish Air Force could be involved in such a blunder. 

Traditionally, I believe that the Turkish Air Force needs to keep 400 fighter jets in its inventory and add as many more combat UAVs to its inventory. I also believe that we need to reach the level of combat readiness that can produce 7-8 sorties instead of three sorties per day, and the logistics infrastructure to support this. I foresee that the TF-23 Kaans can enter the inventory as fighter jets with the desired competence and proficiency after 2035.

Ultimately, 2040 should be taken as the target year, accordingly;

220 F-16 Özgür II

40-80 F-16 Viper or EF Typhoon

100-140 units TF-23 Kaan

180-220 units of the Redwood Advanced Versions

180-220 Anka III Advanced Versions, 

The ability of manned combat aircraft to operate in the combat arena according to the swarm UAV concept, 

Acquisition of modern warfare support capabilities, including space support,

I would like to express that I see these as priority targets for Turkey's survival and defence.