Will Pakistan Be Able to Produce Fifth Generation Fighter Jet AZM on Its Own? Will Pakistan Buy MMU Kaan from Turkey?

Pakistan's Need for a Strong Army Continues Due to Pakistan-India Hostility

Pakistan and India; They are two countries that declared their independence in 1947, after the British withdrew from the region after the Second World War. Pakistan emerged in the lands where the Muslim majority existed (except Kashmir) and Bangladesh, which later separated from Pakistan, emerged. Pakistan; Since its establishment as an independent state on 14 August 1947, it has found itself in the Pakistan-India hostility and rivalry inherited from the British. As a result of the war between the two sides to capture Kashmir between 21 October 1947 and 31 December 1948, when a ceasefire was achieved under the supervision of the United Nations, one third of Kashmir belonged to Pakistan (Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan) and the rest to India. (Jammu and Kashmir, Kashmir Valley and Ladakh) became its territory. However, since a final border agreement could not be signed, this problem remains 'unsolvable' between the two countries.

Likewise, the British hand was also involved in the Greeks landing in Izmir on May 15, 1919, and despite the Lausanne Treaty, the seeds of an 'unresolvable' hostility between Turkey and Greece were sown. In this respect, Turkey and Pakistan, the majority of whose population is Muslim, are two countries with a similar unity of destiny and see each other as 'brother countries'. Just as Turkey always feels the need to have a strong army and a strong defense industry in its region, Pakistan forces itself to stand on its own feet and equip its army with products largely based on its own defense industry in order to maintain its presence against India. In this context, the lion's share of defense investments in the Pakistan Army is allocated to the Air Force.

After independence, the Pakistan Air Force used mainly British aircraft until 1957. In 1957, as a result of the good relations developed with the USA, it added 100 F-86 Saber and F-104 aircraft to its inventory. After the Second Kashmir War between Pakistan and India in 1965, the USA imposed an embargo on Pakistan. Thereupon, Pakistan turned towards French and Chinese planes. Thus, French Dassault-made Mirage III and Chinese-made Shenyang F-6 aircraft entered the Pakistan Air Force inventory. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 resulted in the USA's rapprochement with Pakistan again, and as a result, Pakistan; It purchased 40 F-16 Block 15s from the USA in 1982. Pakistan, which wanted to purchase an additional 71 F-16s in the following years, encountered US obstacles. However, the USA needed Pakistan in the context of Afghanistan after September 11; It deemed it sufficient to allow the sale of an additional 23 F-16 aircraft. With the 9 F-16s subsequently purchased from Jordan, the number of F-16s in the inventory currently stands at 85.

By purchasing from France in 1967, 36 Mirage III and subsequently 60 Mirage V warplanes between 1970 and 1979 were given to the Pakistan Air Force. Afterwards, 50 Mirage IIIs were supplied from Australia, 39 Mirage Vs from Belgium, 13 Mirage IIIs from Spain, 50 Mirage Vs from Libya, and 36 Mirage Vs from Egypt in 2020. Some of the French Mirages supplied were subjected to avionics, electronic warfare and weapons modernization over the years. Currently, Pakistan has 50 Mirage III and 60 Mirage V aircraft in its inventory as nuclear-capable Dual aircraft.

How Did Pakistan and China Jointly Produce the Fourth Generation JF-17?

Pakistan, which also exchanged warplanes with the Chinese in the same years, procured A-5C tactical bombers and F-7 fighter planes from China in addition to F-6s. Afterwards, the two countries took steps to jointly produce warplanes and started the development and production process of the JF-17 Thunder light, single-engine, fourth-generation multi-purpose warplane. This aircraft, jointly developed by Pakistan Aviation Complex (PAC) and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) in China, was the first combat aircraft produced in line with Pakistan's needs. Approximately 170 JF-17 Block I/II/III have been produced since 2002. The production process continues. In addition, while these aircraft are sold to Nigeria and Myanmar, sales are also possible to other countries.

Meanwhile, the production of the Hongdu K-8 Karakoram, an advanced jet aircraft (T-38 equivalent), was also carried out jointly with China. 38 aircraft have already been delivered, and a total of 60 K-8s were aimed to be produced. In addition to joint production; After India purchased Rafale warplanes from France, Pakistan decided to procure a total of 36 J-10C warplanes from China. I believe that Pakistan, which considers it necessary to have a more powerful, high-performance aircraft against the Rafale, is aware of the need for aircraft with higher performance than the JF-17s and is looking for new supply and production ways.

In this context, Pakistan; It pays attention to the development of its own aerospace industry and to ensure that its own unique platforms are the primary platforms of the Pakistan Air Force. It seems that he wants to protect his borders with Pakistani-made warplanes, if not now, then in the future. Because Pakistan, which has been subject to American embargoes and sanctions for years, knows that it can act together with China to a certain extent, but there is a limit to this. Ultimately, Pakistan; It draws the profile of a country that seeks to solve this problem and strives to implement aircraft projects designed by its own engineers.

Pakistan Launched the Fifth Generation Fighter Project, Project AZM, in 2017

With this understanding and future perspective, Pakistan launched a project called "PROJECT AZM", which means "project resolution" in 2017. Pakistan; Within the scope of this project, it plans to produce 5th generation fighter jets and advanced unmanned aerial vehicles in Kamra. Planning was made with the foresight that the aircraft would have three design evaluation cycles. Nowadays, information from various sources has begun to be found that the first cycle has been completed.

Pakistan envisaged a period of 10 years for the development of the fifth generation fighter jet. If this prediction in 2017 comes true and everything goes as planned, the first prototype of the aircraft is expected to appear in 2027. However, it is said that preliminary studies regarding the feasibility of this have not been completed yet. Therefore, it may not be possible to see the first prototype of a fifth-generation national combat aircraft produced in Pakistan in 2027.

Meanwhile, there are rumors on social media that the Pakistani defense industry is cooperating with Ukraine for some critical technologies. On the other hand, it is known that China is definitely a strategic partner for Pakistan. Meanwhile, according to some sources, the national combat aircraft Kaan, which is under development by the Turkish aerospace industry (TAI), is also seen as an important cooperation option for Pakistan. The fact that Turkey and Pakistan have very close relations and that Turkey has been in close contact with Pakistan in the defense industry from past to present, especially in recent years, makes the possibility of cooperation at the Kaan level theoretically possible.

On the other hand, Pakistan Defense Industry; They must be considering that, with the self-confidence of being able to build their own advanced trainer aircraft and JF-17 fighter jet, even with the support of the Chinese, they can now carry out the project of developing a fighter jet on their own. As a matter of fact, Project AZM, which was launched in 2017, I understand that steps have been taken in this direction and that the Pakistani authorities have shown a will in this direction. Although the J-10C purchasing card has been activated, I evaluate that from now on, Pakistan will not want to purchase ready-made warplanes, even from China, and will continue with a warplane that it will build with its own defense industry infrastructure and capabilities.

Will Pakistan Buy Fifth Generation Fighter J-31s from China?

Contrary to this assessment, I find remarkable the statement made by the Commander of the Pakistan Air Force, in a speech he made during his recent visit to an air base, regarding Pakistan's purchase of J31 fighter jets. Although time will tell whether this statement, which has not yet been confirmed by the Pakistani Government and not confirmed by China, will be followed up, it is clear that at least the Pakistan Air Force has this intention.

Some experts; They state that Pakistan will continue its own fifth-generation fighter jet project, and in the meantime, it may have to take a step towards purchasing either the fifth-generation J-31 from China or the Kaan from Turkey in order not to be weakened against India. While Project AZM continues, the biggest factor that could lead Pakistan to this decision is shown to be not to become weak against India.

Requirements for Pakistan to Design, Develop, Produce and Sustain the Fifth Generation Aircraft

Pakistan has undoubtedly implemented the JF-17 project jointly with China, and this has also provided a certain amount of technology transfer and experience gain for the Pakistan Aerospace Industry. This project; We can say that it played a role in developing Pakistan's own engineering know-how and contributed to the construction of an aerospace industry capable of climbing the technological readiness level required to produce a fifth-generation aircraft. I believe that if Pakistan can continue its upward momentum, it will definitely reach the level where it can produce a fifth-generation fighter jet with its own talent and experience.

Pakistan Needs to Spend 2 Billion USD Every Year for Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft AZM

If we focus on some critical requirements for the fifth generation aircraft design, development and production processes, it will be better understood that the job of Pakistan and similar countries is not that easy. First of all, it must reach an economic size that will cover the high cost of producing a fifth-generation aircraft. When we look at the F-35 program, we may be able to say something about the financial need awaiting Pakistan. Considering the production costs and life cycles of F-35 aircraft, it is possible to reach a total defense program size of 1.7 trillion USD for now, but 2 trillion USD with the needs that will arise in the coming years. If we assume that approximately 4,000 F-35s will be produced, then the production and life cycle cost per aircraft will be around 500 million USD. It is out of the question to expect that Pakistan will be able to produce its own fifth-generation national combat aircraft (let's call it AZM) at a unit cost much higher than the unit cost announced for the F-35.

However, if we take the unit cost of 500 million USD as basis and assume and accept that AZMs will be produced as many as the number of JF-17s, then Pakistan will allocate a total of 100 billion USD over the years for the production, maintenance, modernization and use of this aircraft for 200 aircraft. will be required. In its 50-year life cycle, a portion of 2 billion USD must be allocated from the Pakistani budget every year for this aircraft. Pakistan's gross national product is around 350 billion USD. Today, the Pakistan Army requires annual defense expenditure of 7.5 billion USD. Based on this, it is almost impossible for an army with a financial need of 7.5 billion USD to allocate 2 billion USD each year only for the production of fifth generation fighter jets. I do not find it realistic that the priority of a country like Pakistan, which has an inadequate infrastructure in every aspect and a young population exceeding 250 million, could be to produce fifth generation aircraft. However, I consider that the traditional Pakistan-India competition for defense and security may force Pakistani governments to find this money.

The Technology Readiness Level of Pakistan Aerospace Industry Needs to Increase to the Level That Can Produce Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft

Low Visibility (Stealth) Structural, Formal and Systematic Body Design

Stealth or low visibility technology requires achieving product integrity that includes many factors. In order to achieve general low visibility in a fighter aircraft, a design suitable for low visibility is used in the aircraft body (structurally and formally), as well as materials suitable for low visibility, radar, electronic warfare systems, etc. needs to be used.

In order to reduce the radar cross section (RCS) to the smallest values in the fuselage design, the waves and rays emitted from enemy radars must be 'absorbed' by the aircraft fuselage or reflected in another direction, and these waves must not reach the radar location back or reach them at the lowest rate. The method used for this is to ensure that the intersection of the metal plates and frames used in the construction of the aircraft fuselage with the plates and frames on the other plane is 90 degrees, and that the corners are formed in accordance with the orthogonal structure requirements. When we look at fifth generation aircraft such as F-35 and F-22, we can see that structural integrity has been achieved on the surfaces of these aircraft by using double (dihedral) or triple (trihedral) orthogonal layers. In the tail section of such aircraft, a different arrangement is made by tilting the tail surfaces of the vertical stabilizers at oblique angles, which will reduce corner reflections and reduce the surface area. Even in 'flying wing' profiles such as the B-21, the tail section is completely eliminated for greater low visibility.

The aim is to provide a smooth fluidity in the area where the aircraft body and wing meet, leaving no clear separation line. Likewise, 'snake-like folds' are used at the engine air intakes to prevent the engine blades from being seen by enemy radar waves. In the engine nozzle section, an attempt is made to achieve an orthogonal structure by using a saw-like design. In short, fifth-generation aircraft need to use a more advanced jet engine that supports low visibility, has a design that does not give IR reflection to the outside as much as possible, and is made with appropriate materials. In addition, in order to contribute to low visibility in such aircraft, ammunition must be carried in the internal weapon bay, and weapons must be avoided as much as possible in external stations. Because every protrusion on the aircraft fuselage plays a role in naturally increasing RCS.

In addition to the formal requirements of the fuselage, coating it with radar absorbing material (Radar Absorbent Material - RAM), using suitable carbon composite material instead of metal or metal alloys on suitable surfaces as much as possible, making aircraft paint have RAM properties, etc. It is necessary.

Use of Low Visibility Supporting AESA Radar

The radar to be used in fifth generation aircraft must be more advanced than classical radars. As they approach enemy radar positions or aircraft, they eventually become 'visible', even though fifth generation aircraft are being produced for low visibility requirements. For this reason, it is desired that these aircraft can see the enemy from long distances before the enemy sees them. In this context, sophisticated AESA radar that supports low visibility must be used in such aircraft. Being able to produce AESA radar requires reaching a more complex technological competence that can produce a more advanced radar than classical Doppler and PESA radars. Because AESA type radars require more power, heat up is high, so they need a sophisticated cooling system. AESA antenna elements can change their operating frequency approximately 1,000s of times per second. AESA Radar energy spreads over a very wide band instead of a single frequency. The adversary country mostly ignores this signal, thinking it is just background noise. In short, being able to produce an AESA radar with low RCS requires having a sophisticated technological infrastructure and knowledge.

Sensor Fusion Architecture and Use of Advanced Avionics

Sensor fusion is also a must in fifth generation aircraft. This technology serves to 'integrate' the information collected and provided by all friendly air, ground, space or other systems in a pool, putting a single tactical air picture in front of the pilot. Sensor fusion, which greatly improves the pilot's situational awareness, also effectively serves low visibility. Because the aircraft's radar is a system that makes the aircraft visible with the energy it emits. Therefore, fifth-generation aircraft with advanced sensor fusion must give the pilot the option of using the aircraft radar in the lowest mode in hostile airspace, even if it is a low-visibility AESA radar. Again, electronic warfare systems used on such aircraft must be designed as a mechanism that supports low visibility and must work in harmony with sensor fusion. Additionally, in line with sensor fusion, integrated avionics, aircraft warfare damage repair capabilities, use of low visibility cockpit and canopy glass, etc. is in need. Developing each of these technologies requires serious research and development processes and a long time. In this sense, developments in digital design tools bring great benefits to design engineers, classical methods are now on the shelf. We can say that design works are completed quickly, three-dimensional prototype production can be carried out faster with 3D printers than before, but the engineers who will do these need to have serious knowledge, be specialized in their fields, and the aerospace technology infrastructure in that country needs to be sufficient to support such studies.

Using the Digital Flight Control System

As can be seen, the biggest problem in the production of fifth generation aircraft is low visibility, which is expected to be achieved in structural, formal and systemic integrity. In addition, the aerodynamic design expected from an advanced fighter aircraft is 'unbalanced' in terms of stability. Warplanes produced in less stable structures mean aircraft with superior maneuverability.

For example, the F-16 is an unstable yet agile aircraft. It is almost impossible for the pilot to fly this type of aircraft like a conventional aircraft and to have the aircraft perform all three-dimensional maneuvers properly. The pilot needs to be supported in this sense. For this reason, in most of the warplanes produced in the last fifty years, a digital flight control system (fly-by-wire and even its more advanced version, fly-by-optics) is used in order to keep the plane 'balanced' in all situations and to fly it in a stable structure. This is not a simple technology. Very complex software required for flight control laws needs to be designed and numerous system, ground and flight tests must be carried out. It takes many years for an error-free system to emerge.

Use of Advanced Jet Engine Compatible with Low Visibility

Ultimately, fifth generation aircraft must meet both maneuver and performance requirements and be able to fly at super cruising speed (in short, the ability to reach supersonic speeds without using afterburners). For this, there is a need to use low-visibility powerful engines as well as variable-angle nozzle systems compatible with thrust-vectoring. Naturally, the weight and size of the engine are a factor that limits the size and fuselage shape of the fifth generation aircraft. Producing a jet engine that is both high-power and low-visibility is a beyond-dream reality for many countries.

Conclusion

Pakistan is a country founded by the Muslims living in this country who left India during the independence of India, which was a British colony, in 1947, as a result of Great Britain losing its former power with the end of the Second World War. This separation; It was a development that left a legacy of Pakistan-India hostility that continues to this day. For this reason, Pakistan, with a population of 250 million, has the profile of a country that considers it necessary to feed a large army and put defense and security needs at the top of its priorities, despite its weak economy. In this context, Pakistan, which had equipped its Air Force with American and French aircraft in the past, preferred to cooperate closely with its neighbor and, in a sense, India's 'enemy' China, during periods when its relations with the Western world deteriorated, and resorted to supplying Chinese warplanes. As a further stage of this cooperation, the two countries have succeeded in producing the JF-17 fighter jet to meet the needs of the Pakistan Air Force.

Pakistan has made a certain progress in fighter jet production technology with the JF-17 development process; As the next step of this project, Project AZM was launched to develop a fifth generation fighter jet. Although the stages achieved in this project, which was launched in 2017, are not fully disclosed in open sources, I evaluate that the progress desired by the Pakistani authorities has not yet been achieved. The first prototype of this aircraft is planned to appear in 2027-28. However, if Turkey's national combat aircraft project Kaan is taken as a reference, I believe that the Pakistani people may have the chance to see AZM in the air in the early 2030s at the earliest.

On the other hand, every country that attempts to produce a fifth-generation fighter jet must have reached the highest levels of technology readiness. Pakistan, which needs China's support while producing the JF-17, which barely meets the fourth generation criteria, will be very difficult, if not impossible, to produce a fifth generation fighter aircraft with a complex structure, which includes many factors, especially low visibility, on its own. I evaluate that governments need to bear an annual cost of around 2 billion USD, and that even if there is no direct support from developed countries in critical technologies, there is a need to receive finished products (for example, the supply of AESA radar) and highly qualified personnel support and consultancy.

The magnitude of effort that Pakistan and similar countries need to make for the detailed design, development and production of a fifth-generation low-visibility fighter jet is clearly visible. Low visibility is an important capability, but it is not a technology that is sufficient on its own. I believe that achieving the integrity of the design philosophy of the fifth generation fighter jet is the key. As a prerequisite, it requires having years of engineering experience, gaining experience in the fourth generation fighter jet design-development-production processes, covering high costs, carrying out countless trials, enduring possible failures, and achieving good management integrity.

I do not expect any country, including China, that has learned and developed all of these on its own and has eventually reached an advanced level to produce its own fifth-generation fighter jet, to transfer sensitive and critical aerospace technologies, which are considered strategically important, to Pakistan. No country will share such technologies. It would be a dream to expect this. Lockheed Martin, which is expected to directly assist South Korea's air and space company KAI (Korean Aerospace Industry) in the production of the KF-21 fifth generation fighter jet, does not transfer some of the needed critical technologies (including AESA) to KAI. is an example. Therefore, the only thing that Pakistan or any other similar country can do is to develop the critical technology for fifth-generation aircraft production domestically, based on its own means and capabilities, even if it is very difficult. It's not really an easy job, but I guess there's no other way.

In the meantime, I believe that Pakistan's ability to produce its own fifth-generation fighter aircraft will be quite challenging in the near term given its technological and financial constraints. Therefore, I believe that Pakistan may take steps to produce for Pakistan as an interim solution, possibly depending on the progress of Turkey's MMU Kaan. According to some reports, the two countries are already in talks in the context of Kaan and are evaluating cooperation opportunities. I believe that the same is true in the J-31 dimension between Pakistan and China, and that Pakistan has not yet reached the stage of choosing between Chinese and Turkish aircraft, but TAI should also consider that if delays similar to the postponement of the expected flight of the Kaan on December 27, 2023 occur frequently, the Pakistan side may turn the needle towards China as an option.

References

Muhammed Ayyıldız, “Pakistan Hava Kuvvetleri (PAF) Analizi”, 23 Mart 2022, https://www.savunmasanayist.com/pakistan-hava-kuvvetleri-paf-analizi/

https://twitter.com/Huseyin_Fazla/status/1707761708549189763

Hüseyin FAZLA, “F-35 Programından Çıkarılmak Türkiye İçin Kayıp mı/Kazanç mı oldu? Bölüm-9 (Son)”, STRASAM, 28 Ocak 2023, https://strasam.org/savunma/havacilik-ve-uzay-sanayii/f-35-programindan-cikarilmak-turkiye-icin-kayip-mi-kazanc-mi-oldu-bolum-9-son-1608

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-Pakistan-Air-Force-PAF-getting-for-its-6th-generation-fighter-jet/answer/Daniyal-203?ch=3&oid=1477743659385595&share=16c92840&srid=usBSds&target_type=answer

Jeffrey O. Grady, System Requirements Analysis, Second Edition, San Diego, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-417107-7.00011-