How can the foreign expansion of a country's defense industry be achieved?

A country's defense industry is the guarantee of its independence in many senses, as it reduces its external dependence. Although the defense industry produces many materials from uniforms to fire extinguishers, many defense-oriented capabilities are not actually systems sold on the shelves. Especially materials that are of low use in civilian life are subject to the control of the authorized bodies of the states. Therefore, states use the transfer of these capabilities and technologies as an element of political power to protect their rights and interests.

On the other hand, although the amount of money allocated to defense in the world decreased from 6% of GNP in 1960 to 2% in 2015, it is still at a very high rate (https: //databank. worldbank. org). Moreover, the amount of military expenditure around the world, which was 1.139 billion dollars in 2001, increased to 1.922 billion dollars in 2019 (https://www.statista.com/). Although there has been a relative decrease in defense expenditures in the world due to the epidemic that started in 2020, it is anticipated that there may be an increase in defense expenditures in the coming years, considering the political conjuncture in the world. Therefore, many countries in the world, especially the USA, Russia, France, Germany and China, get a share of this cake (SIPRI Fact Sheet March 2021). Türkiye ranks 13th on this list.

However, it has been known for many years that the development in the defense industry positively affects economic development. However, there are two necessary conditions to create this effect. First, the rate at which military technology supports civilian sectors must be increased. For example, even if a rocket technology cannot be used directly in the civilian sector, it can be a source of space and aviation studies. Or devices used in military communications can be marketed to be used in disaster situations. Moreover, the technology used in the tools, tools and sub-parts of the devices in question constitutes a resource for the production of other devices. The resulting eco-system creates transaction volume and employment not only for the main material but also for all support products. Thus, countries gain an industrial competitive advantage over their rivals.

On the other hand, when defense industry products are exported to friendly and allied countries, the contribution of indirect costs per unit decreases depending on the production amount, and therefore the total cost decreases. This decrease naturally leads to a decrease in the investment budget in the expenditures of the armed forces and the allocation of more resources to items such as education and health.

However, considering that the customers in defense planning are governments, it will not be possible to use the strategies and methods currently developed for marketing. Therefore, considering that there is such intense competition in the defense industry worldwide, achieving competitive advantage can only be achieved through joint work of the state, sector representatives and companies.

It is a known fact that all institutions of states and defense industry companies make every effort to increase their transaction volumes with friendly and allied countries. For example, it is known that Trump led the agreement to sell 150 Blackhawk helicopters to Saudi Arabia, which amounted to a large sum in May 2017 (https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-39987397). In addition, outside the platform, many heads of state take businessmen on their international trips and enable them to make commercial agreements. As is known in Turkey, such efforts are generally coordinated by the Presidency of Defense Industries.

On the other hand, it has been observed that the institution in question has produced technology transfer projects that brought together the defense industry through universities in Turkey in the past, in order to achieve sustainable competition based on R&D and to direct the defense industry. However, although a visible acceleration has been created in technology transfer and production activities related to the defense industry, it is considered that the social sciences side is lacking.

Need definitions for defense industry products around the world are made according to some basic principles. This process, defined as defense planning, comes into play after defining the rights and interests of the state, determining priorities, and selecting the military national power element as the main instrument. In other words, states can choose to protect their national rights and interests with different elements of national power. The most notable of these elements are the political power, which draws attention with international relations, and the economic power, which draws attention with embargoes and boycotts.

However, when it is decided to defend or develop a right or interest with military force, defense planning comes into play. Unfortunately, this concept, which has developed in parallel with the strategy literature in the world, has not received the attention it deserves. Sad events in the past and the boundaries of the concept of national secret leads the process and therefore a limited the number of academics working and publishing on this subject. However, the planning, programming and budgeting system - PPBS, developed in accordance with the instructions given by US President John F. Kennedy to Defense Secretary Robert McNamara in 1961, has become a standard defense planning tool in almost all West-oriented countries. While it is possible to access many sources in the world literature on these subjects, the number of publications in our country is not sufficient.

Also in the USA, the US Defense Acquisition University (Source: https://www.dau.edu/) started its operations on September 1, 1992 and tried to meet the need for information on this subject. As far as I know, there is no foundation or state-owned higher education institution in our country that deals with this issue at an academic level, except for a few institutes within the National Defense University.

In addition, many US-based independent or semi-independent think tanks operate in 50 different countries of the world and direct defense planning studies. However, unfortunately, there is no such national or international structure in our country that would support the academic side of defense planning. Eliminating this deficiency will take our country, which wants to be a playmaker in its region, to a different position in its own sphere of influence.

Another area of improvement regarding defense planning is making economic, technological, political, demographic and commercial predictions and forecasts for the future, which will cover 20 to 50 years. At first glance, it may seem that this horizon and beyond cannot be predicted. However, the defense industry works with long-term projects. For example, the first delivery of the F-16, which was produced upon the order of the US Air Force in 1972 for a light, cost-effective fighter jet equipped with air-to-air strike weapons, was made in 1978 (Source: https://www.britannica.com/technology/F- 16). Considering today's year 2020, it has been in operation for 42 years. Considering the preliminary R&D and subsequent activities of the weapon in question, it is clear that its design would have been made with a foresight of approximately 60 years.

In this context, a new method, also known as scenario-based "la prospective", which will form the main core of advanced strategic foresight studies, was largely developed by the "Future Studies" department within the Anglo-French SEMA Metra Consulting Group between 1974 and 1979. His works, which left their mark on the 1980s, became very popular in the following years, especially in France, with the support of the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, the French Ministry of Defense and global oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and ELF. As far as is known, these studies, which examine trends affecting world oil prices, have provided effective support for the decision-making process of senior management, even if not all crises can be predicted.

It is not possible for these strategic foresight and forecasting activities, which require a collective effort, to be carried out by individual companies alone, due to both cost and expertise. Moreover, there is insufficient knowledge and experience in techniques used in these studies, such as morphological analysis, matrix of cross-effect products (MICMAC) applied to mactor and classification. Therefore, 20 to 50-year forecasts regarding national power elements that will directly affect the global and national defense industry and planning should be determined through workshops to be held under the leadership of the state. Subsequently, the results obtained should be published with predictions made in the sector. Thus, defense industry companies and relevant institutions of the state will have the opportunity to determine their own vision and strategies. However, defense industry studies are currently carried out in many countries that do not use these methods, based on personal guesses and under intense uncertainty, without analytical future predictions.

However, knowing the principles and methods of defense planning can give defense industry companies the opportunity to establish long-term sustainable relationships with their customers. Defense planning principles enable the identification of the target customer, analysis of their needs and subsequent product satisfaction. On the other hand, although knowing defense industry procedures does not guarantee the completion of the sale, it makes it easier to be in a more advantageous position compared to competitors.

For example, the main factors that trigger defense planning are the concepts of risk and threat. Risk includes the possibility of damage to the rights and interests of a nation, including its independence and territorial integrity, by an adversary. This damage may be the usurpation of the rights and interests in question, or unfortunately, it may be deprivation for a long time. Threat constitutes the intention and ability of the adversary to cause this damage. Therefore, countries invest in defense in order to eliminate these enemies, threats and risks. This distinction constitutes the main criterion for the defense industry to determine possible target customers.

However, it depends on geographical factors. Therefore, the geography of the countries determines the defense planning products they will invest in. It is certain that a country with a long coastline will attach particular importance to its maritime capabilities. On the other hand, the clothing products purchased by countries with desert, extremely cold, swamp and forest structures will be different. Again, the demographic structure of the countries determines the type of products used. For example, a country with an uneducated population must choose products that are easy to repair and maintain. A longer training period will be envisaged for the operation of the product in question.

One of the most important parameters affecting defense planning is economy. Countries that do not have sufficient resources to obtain the economically desired talent generally either downgrade the qualifications of the talent, foresee a multi-year procurement program, or resort to outsourcing. These types of loans, known as state-company loans, are operated through a tripartite mechanism between the purchasing state, the international creditor and the exporter. The examinations have shown that the credit opportunities provided as well as the qualifications of the talent are an important reason for preference.

On the other hand, it is thought that countries may offer raw materials and some privileges instead of cash in return for talent packages, especially in trade with African countries. Although there are clearing institutions working in this regard in the world, it is thought that the establishment of a national clearing exchange in our country may also benefit the defense industry in the long term. Another effort that can be made in this regard is to enter into such tenders through multiple agreements, similar to state company loans. For example, a state may want to transfer the operating privilege of a mine for 40 years in exchange for the purchase of an armored personnel carrier. When looked at quantitatively, the mine in question may be cheaper than its peers. However, the defense industry company will either transfer the privilege it has received to third parties. Or the miner must take on a partner. On the other hand, in such countries, infrastructure services such as finance, transportation, port management and customs clearance cannot be provided at an adequate level. Therefore, similar infrastructures will need to be established in long-term commitments.