defense

IDEF-25 Impressions; Dancing with Rockets

As a former soldier and academic with experience in this field, I will share my impressions of the IDEF-25 Defence Industry Fair, held under the patronage of the Presidency of the Republic of Turkey and organised by the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (TSKGV) between 22 and 27 July 2023, under two headings. First, I will provide a general assessment of the fair, followed by a discussion of the key topics and products that stood out. According to information obtained from the IDEF-25 website, the numerical values related to the fair are as follows.

Dancing with Rockets!

As the headline suggests, Roketsan was the star of the show. The rocket family it showcased, particularly the TAYFUN Block 4 ballistic missile, captured everyone's attention. Another significant system was the ŞİMŞEK Satellite Launch System. The system's payload capacity was stated as 1,500 kg. Given that I am aware of the initial payload of this project, it can be said that the progress made so far is truly significant. It is anticipated that the launch facility to be constructed in Somalia, which has been featured in the media, will be used in conjunction with the national global positioning system currently under development. However, I believe that the long-term security and protection of this facility in Somalia should be reassessed.

This is because we have experience with the naval base we started building on Sevakin Island in Sudan, which was left unfinished due to the turmoil in Sudan. Roketsan's emergence in this way was perceived as a message from Turkey in the rocket war between Iran and Israel in previous months.

In fact, President Erdoğan's reference to Israel and Gaza in his opening speech and the official parade of important land and air platforms at the fair were additional messages. It can be said that Israel's statements targeting IDEF-2025, or rather the Turkish defence industry and Cyprus, were a reflection of these messages.

Turkic States Organisation (TSO) and Defence Partnerships

Within the scope of IDEF TALKS, I delivered a speech on ‘Turkic States Organisation (TSO) and Defence Partnerships.’ The presentation summarised that:

The defence industry is one of the most important instruments of foreign policy, Turkey is the leading country in defence industry partnerships within the TDT, it is necessary to establish the Turkish Foreign Military Sales System (Turkish-type FMS) as soon as possible in order to take the lead in this area, the TDT does not yet have a permanent organisation (Agency/Secretariat) is still lacking, that this is important for other projects, particularly defence partnerships, that a permanent defence industry organisation should be established within the TDT for procurement and uninterrupted logistics, that the necessary international legal grounds for the aforementioned partnerships exist for members and third countries, and that a detailed roadmap (Defence Planning Programming- DPP process) is needed, other member countries may develop the necessary technological infrastructure based on their own dynamics, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) could emerge as a leading centre for education, research, and conferences, and defence industry partnerships could contribute to the TDT becoming a new pole centre in a multipolar world. The full speech is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dreHgpOZkGU.

Increasing Defence Expenditure in the EU

The level achieved by the Turkish defence industry is recognised worldwide. However, the sustainability of this level is also very important. The most important issue for sustainability is the sale of manufactured products to other countries. With the support of relevant ministries, SSB continues to seek new markets in Africa, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Asia. Due to the Ukraine-Russia war, 16 EU countries have announced that they will increase their defence spending in the coming period, both out of a desire to be self-sufficient and due to pressure from the US within the NATO framework.

Within the scope of this decision, it is estimated that European countries' expenditures could reach hundreds of billions by 2030. The European countries in question can meet these needs in four ways: through their own national resources (they can meet part of their needs in this way), through foreign purchases, through cooperation with foreign companies within the country, and through cooperation outside the country.

Therefore, Turkish defence industry companies must, so to speak, ‘take the initiative’ in Brussels to meet the needs of EU countries and secure the necessary share of this budget to contribute to their sustainability. The EU's European Defence Fund (EDF), the Ammunition Procurement Act (Act in Support of Ammunition - ASAP), the Military Mobility Strategic European Strategic Initiative (SESI), and the European Investment Bank, which reflect the EU's defence expenditures and projects during this period, should be closely monitored.

Current Status of Domestic Engine Development on Platforms

Looking at the products presented at the fair, it is anticipated that it is important to reassess the issue of engine shortages in the defence industry.

Although providing a specific percentage does not offer clear information, the local content ratio in the Turkish defence industry has consistently been reported as 80% in recent years. In fact, President Erdoğan reiterated this figure in his opening speech at IDEF-25. Currently, the products that cannot be produced domestically in the defence industry are primarily engines required for tanks, naval, and air platforms. The inability to use domestically produced engines in certain platforms prevents the export of some systems, such as the Fırtına howitzer and the ATAK helicopter, due to ‘end-user’ restrictions. However, at the current stage, we can confirm that engines for the ALTAY tank and other ground vehicles have been developed. It is also anticipated that engines for naval platforms can be produced by further developing tank engines. According to information provided at the fair, significant progress has been made in engine development for the GÖKBEY helicopter, HÜRJET, and KAAN by TUSAŞ for air platforms. Therefore, it is clear that once the engine issue is resolved in the near future, the defence industry will advance to a higher level. However, it should be noted that a collective effort is still needed in the engine sector.

Entry of Systems into Inventory and Changes in TSK Personnel, Units, and Logistics Organisation

The air, land, and sea systems and equipment exhibited at the exhibition were so diverse that I tried to count them but could not. It is probably difficult to determine an accurate number. However, there is one issue that is relevant to foreign users in particular.

Have these weapon systems been added to the TSK inventory? Is the TSK using them? As a former soldier who worked in procurement processes, I am curious about how planners in the TSK manage these processes.

First, the usage concepts and doctrines for new systems entering the inventory must be determined. Then, the locations where these systems (drones, drone defence systems, kamikaze drones, TAS, missiles, etc.) will be deployed within unit structures and organisations must be specified, from platoon to army level. Subsequently, personnel must be procured and trained according to this organisational structure. Of course, it must also be taken into account that the trained personnel will be transferred to different positions after a certain period of time due to reasons such as reassignment. Then there is the issue of how the maintenance and upkeep of these weapon systems will be ensured once they are added to the inventory. This is because there are currently many different models, especially in land vehicle systems. For this reason, I am among those who believe that the real effects of the weapons displayed at the fair will only be seen after they are added to the TSK inventory. Perhaps the Turkish Armed Forces will follow the example of other countries' armed forces and use certain systems without adding them to their inventory, through service procurement (leasing, use when necessary, etc.).

All of these issues must be studied in detail.

Naming Products

It would be appropriate to name products manufactured in the defence industry according to a specific logic, international standards and a specific coding system. In other words, when a name is used, it should be possible to at least roughly understand which weapon system it refers to. In the near future, only those working on the project, those manufacturing the product and those involved in its marketing will know the names. For example, TAYFUN BMS indicates that it is a ballistic missile system. Sometimes, instead of names, codes consisting solely of numbers may be used. This allows for the understanding of the missile weapon system family from largest to smallest (as in some Soviet systems, such as S-200, S-300, S-400, etc.).

Agreements made

During the fair, 270 sales, purchase, and cooperation agreements of various sizes were signed, following the completion of negotiations. The most important of these are the sale of Hürjet to the Spanish Air Force, the Eurofighter Typhoon agreement with the United Kingdom, and the agreement to sell 48 KAANs to Indonesia. This agreement had actually been discussed and criticised before. It is considered important because it also includes programme partnership.

BAYKAR's Participation in the Fair and Display of Loyalty

BAYKAR also participated in this year's fair. Why is this important? Because its absence from previous IDEF fairs had been criticised. Therefore, this participation has put an end to such criticisms. During the fair, unfortunately, retired Brigadier General Paşa Özen (Lieutenant Colonel Paşa), who was one of the company commanders of the 1988 class at the Military Academy, where I am also a member, passed away. He had suddenly fallen ill approximately 2.5 years ago and did not have the opportunity to recover.

When Paşa Özen fell ill, he was working as a coordinator at the Ankara office of BAYKAR. After his illness, BAYKAR provided him and his family with every possible support and was always by their side. As someone who is closely familiar with the matter, I would like to express my gratitude to them. I would also like to emphasise that such humanitarian behaviour is very important in terms of fostering institutional loyalty.

Another issue concerns Mr. Selçuk Bayraktar, who is currently one of the leading figures in the defence industry. He either visited or briefly looked at the stands of almost all the companies participating in the fair. In other words, he is still searching. This gives us a separate idea of how development should take place in the defence industry. The number of companies participating in the fair this year was 1,491. This is truly a large number. While some companies may have had smaller booths due to budget constraints, the work they do is truly significant. In this context, I believe it is essential to establish a system that institutionalises the efforts Mr. Selçuk personally made at IDEF and supports these companies.

Noteworthy Projects and Topics

As a tank enthusiast, one of the topics I was most curious about at every fair was the latest status of the ALTAY tank. This time, BMC officials finally announced that the tank is now ready and that mass production will begin soon. It has been learned that the first ALTAY tank will be delivered to the Turkish Armed Forces by the end of August, that the first tanks to be produced will be manufactured with the Korean package (engine + transmission), and that the BATU engine produced domestically for the ALTAY tank, along with the transmission, is nearly complete. However, considering the tank's weight, the complexity and dynamics of the battlefield, and the threat architecture, some changes to the ALTAY tank may be anticipated in the coming years. Additionally, it has been learned that the VURAN vehicle developed by BMC is being produced with a domestically produced engine, and preparations for mass production are nearly complete.

NUROL Makina attracted attention at the fair with its state-of-the-art and innovative land vehicles. The company's efforts to expand its market in European countries with different configurations of its Ejder vehicle and its allocation of resources to R&D projects in this area are noteworthy. The company's 100% electric eNMS-L vehicle immediately raises the question of how a military vehicle can be recharged (refuelled) on the battlefield. However, in addition to operational activities in the field, units also carry out administrative activities in the rear. Additionally, security forces such as the police and gendarmerie, which are law enforcement agencies, operate in areas with electrical grids. Considering the EU's ‘Green Deal’ and the UN's 2030 goals, it is anticipated that such military vehicles will be incorporated into the inventories of the United States and European Union countries in the coming years.

Detailed information about the vehicle and other equipment was obtained from the company's Defence Advisor, Retired Brigadier General Recep ÖZDEMİR. HAVELSAN, one of the important companies of TSKGV, previously announced that it had established the security and safety system for the presidential complex in the TRNC, which was opened in May.

HAVELSAN announced at the fair that it will establish coastal security systems in the Eastern Mediterranean and Romania. This indicates that another nail will be driven into the Eastern Mediterranean, further strengthening the ‘Blue Homeland.’

One of the topics that piqued my interest the most at the fair was the FPV (First Person View) and fibre optic cable-controlled drones, which have come to the forefront due to the Ukraine-Russia war and their ability to operate without being affected by jamming. Indeed, companies have responded to this trend by producing various types of FPV drones. However, it seems that there is still some way to go in the production of fiber optic cable drones.

Another noteworthy aspect of the fair was China's interest in the event. China had practically closed off an entire island at the fair, which it had designated as the China Pavilion, with state support and the participation of both public and private companies. In addition to China's state-sponsored participation, various Turkish companies also took part in the fair as representatives of Chinese companies.

Miilux OY, a company owned by OYAK and based in Manisa, meets all the armour needs of the Turkish defence industry. It has been learned that the special steel required for the submarine being developed under the National Submarine (MİLDEN) project to be a ‘resistant hull’ will be produced at the company's facilities in Manisa, that the steel produced has successfully passed factory tests, and that the company is awaiting notification to proceed to the mass production phase of the developed product. This development is an important step for the MİLDEN project. Generally speaking, OYAK currently produces products directly for the defence industry through its Miilux OY subsidiary. However, given its potential and its status as a ‘company of the military,’ it could establish additional companies to directly supply the defence industry, thereby increasing its profitability while providing greater support to the sector. Of course, identifying project areas that will increase and sustain profitability is essential for this. Perhaps the newly appointed OYAK management will take steps in this direction.

This year, it was observed that participation from the academic world was low at the fair. Even in the IDEF TALKS sessions, there were more representatives from the industry. We had the opportunity to tour part of the fair with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hakan Arıdemir and Dr. Ramazan Güreşçi from the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Kütahya Dumlupınar University. I also had the opportunity to discuss developments in the defence industry with Emekli Tnk. Alb. Murat Kaymakçılar, Secretary General of DASA (Defence, Aviation and Space Association), of which I am also a member.

I would like to extend my sincere congratulations to the TSKGV staff responsible for management and organisation, as well as to Retired Brigadier General Erhan Sipahioğlu, Specialist Nur Hatun Koca, and Retired Colonel Murat Dirican, whom I met due to my activities, for this flawless organisation. I would also like to thank Ms. Kübra Yiğit for her assistance during my IDEF Talks presentation.

I would also like to express my gratitude to Mr. İbrahim Özdemir, General Manager of AKG, a leading company in the heavy vehicle and machinery cooling system (intercooling) sector based in Izmir, and Mr. Gökay Türker, Sales and Design Manager, for their support during my three days at the fair, both in terms of stand usage and logistics.

Conclusion

Within the scope of this fair;

Highlighting missile systems at the fair to send a message about the missile wars and threats surrounding us is important for understanding the role of the defence industry in international relations.
The establishment of defence industry partnerships at TDT will contribute to TDT becoming a power centre.
The EU's increasing defence spending is an opportunity for sustainability in the defence industry.
It is encouraging that the ALTAY tank is finally approaching serial production, with the first tank to be delivered to the Turkish Armed Forces at the end of this month.
Considerable progress has been made in meeting the engine requirements of land, air, and sea platforms in the defence industry with domestic capabilities,
The interest of the Chinese state and companies in the fair is noteworthy,
It is understood that it is important for the products manufactured to enter the TSK inventory in a form whose concept, organisation, personnel, and logistics principles have been determined, as well as their production.

See you at the next IDEF.