Is War Changing Microprocessor Architecture?

Lessons to be Learned from the Saddam Regime:

In the process after the first gulf war of 1992, a news that appeared in many press organizations was quite remarkable. It had been 8-9 years and Saddam was struggling with many sanctions against Iraq. In this process, it was not possible to supply the microprocessors that form the brain of all guided systems. However, Iraq had to develop its own technology and produce its products, as the channels for purchasing weapons from outside were closed. The extremely powerful Sony Playstation 2 processor, which was very popular at the time and had enough resources about it, had the potential to meet the need.

This move of the country, which bought Playstation 2 through wholesale channels from Iran and with individual purchases from many other countries, was caught in the US intelligence network. Thus, taking into account not only the commercial sales channels but also the individual movements in the consumer market, all channels for the country's access to this game console were put under pressure. In this way, a huge military industry was prevented from producing domestic products, especially smart missile systems, by using a new microprocessor architecture. Because at that time, digital and analog electronics were much more intertwined. This goal was achievable with more modest knowledge and human effort compared to current times.

Will Russia Follow in the Footsteps of Saddam?

This is a story that has turned into an urban legend over time and you can find it in many sources. But for some reason, when the international sanctions on the Russia-Ukraine war were being announced, it immediately came to my mind. Because US President Biden's initial goal was to cut off Russia's access to all modern digital technologies.

I have been following Russia in terms of technology for a long time. It also had unique microprocessor architectures, different hardware and software approaches from the West, and a unique logic. In fact, this country, which lost a significant part of its qualified manpower in years when economic prosperity was low, experienced a migration of ideas that would affect the roadmap of Western companies, especially Intel. However, it has not been able to recover itself in terms of both modern processor dump and architectural development. In the field of defense, although Elbrus has seen the use of some original architectures, it has not been able to save itself from being dependent on western processor architectures and hardware manufacturers in general.

Russia's Chip Impasse:

In this article, I do not want to prolong the subject with extensive bibliography and give it a taste of a scientific article. However, the point I want to emphasize is this: Russia; Can no longer work with foundries such as TSMC, Global Foundries, Samsung. Even if it forgets its own architectures, it cannot procure high and low quality commercial chips from any manufacturer. In fact, while many Western-influenced manufacturers cut off the trade of products with advanced microprocessors, especially mobile phones, Chinese manufacturers have declared that they will no longer export premium segment products with High End chips and will only continue to ship simpler commercial products.

Modern microprocessors and high-speed computing solutions are present in many parts of our lives, even if we don't realize it. It may not be an issue to continue using the product or solution that one is using especially in civilian life for a while. This seems possible, especially when considering a durable and suffering society infrastructure like Russia. But the field of defense industry is something else entirely. No matter how high-capacity computing units you feed it, with its mouth always open, like a bird, the defense industry will never be satisfied. He always wants new things. He always wants more, and his resistance to starvation is not very good.

Russians and Digital World Facts:

Today, it is not possible to completely disconnect any country from the digital world. This includes Russia. Likewise, it is not desirable to completely cut off a country from digital technologies. Because for the owners of this world, it means the loss of the biggest source of information and intelligence. It brings with it the loss of instruments that will affect and direct the social structure. For this reason, we can say that even though the fog of war prevents the west's plans and programs from being fully revealed for now, enough data will be seen to make more qualified determinations soon. In this context:

- What is clearly and unequivocally blocked.
- What is allowed to persist.
- What can continue to trade away from the eyes, etc. awe may emerge more prominently.

Russians Are Familiar With Cyber ​​Warfare:

The limit of what Russia can actually do, which has a distinctive talent and ability to direct the world public opinion in areas such as digital army, cyber attack, and information warfare, is currently being tested. In this area, just as in the ground and air operations in the Ukrainian war, a marked exaggeration and a remarkable uncertainty / incompetence towards the Russians are striking. But the most striking aspect of the memory is not this superficial determination, but the nakedness of the situation lying in its depth.

Will Sanctions End When the War Is Over?

The benefits and harms of the possibility of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war for the Western Bloc, especially the USA and England, is a topic of current discussion. Likewise, it is a stated fact that even if the hot war ends, the sanctions will not end easily. Well, what could be the Russians' moves in such a situation? This is really a layered thing to think about, even to divide into civilian and military compartments.

For example, can Russia make its entire mobile communication infrastructure a unique internal structure with the technology support of China? Can it separate its internet, social media, digital state from the entire Western society and the world in general? Can it ensure internal data security and information flow, or even make it more convenient and efficient for itself? Can AI-powered China re-establish another version of the digital state model as the Russian one?

How can Russian urgent military needs be met?

But what about the obvious military urgent needs? For example, what kind of a solution will be developed for the vulnerabilities faced by the Russians in air operations? What kind of a solution can Russia offer to the problems of ammunition and targeting pods that provide precision strikes from a safe distance? A few days ago, Turkey came to the fore with the promotional advertisements of the Pebble missile family. Many other families of weapon systems, similar to Turkey's Gravel, have already formed, and new ones are on their way. It is clear from their costs that such weapons are not something that can be spent in the event of a war, like chickpeas. The use of sensitive ammunition naturally requires precision, it is used as a result of precise calculations. You don't want to use precision ammunition for a target you can hit with conventional unguided ammunition. Given the high cost of war that compels a country, no operational planner would adopt a cost-effective form of weapon use. The storage of such weapons, which are expensive to manufacture, is also subject to special conditions. Special repositories need to be built.

Using Civilian Solutions for Russian Needs:

From this point of view, it would not be an understatement to expect Russia to consolidate into commercial microprocessors and sensors, primarily embedded software, by using the accumulation of manpower working in the civilian field. If the Russo-Ukrainian War is short-lived, Russian solutions will certainly not catch up with this war. However, considering that the sanctions may continue to a certain extent after the war, it is obvious that the Russians have no choice but to develop their own national system. The debut of the first products based entirely on Russian technology in this field will take several years. With the Russian basic science accumulation and past experience, there is a possibility that much more radical moves can be seen in the medium and long term. We can say that both moves have a key component: Time.

Russians Like to Take Risks:

Russian culture has a classic rhetoric: Russians prefer to appear criminal, barbarian and murderous, rather than appear impotent or powerless. Whatever the method to be chosen, the question "How much time will it lose or gain?" The question is important.

to the Russians; Rather than relying on a long-lasting war environment and what it will bring, it may make more sense to do the 'soberness' attributed to him in a short time, then wait for the fire to cool and continue on the road. Because, it can be expected from the Russian corporate mind to measure time by opening all its perceptions, to manage the rise of long-term pressure tools such as immigrants to the ideal level during this time, to finish the job before the full consolidation of the opposite front. The Russian 'final action' may also have a nuclear, chemical and biological nature. Because the conventional means of warfare cannot break a people's will to fight, similar to the example of Japan that we know from the second world war.

Can Russian Microprocessor Architectural Infrastructure Be Created?

Another possible move that can be expected from the Russians is the creation of a new microprocessor architectural infrastructure. This architecture, which will spread to both civil and military uses, can be realized with unofficial support from China. In order to block the Russians, the Western world may turn to impose license requirements even for free market products, if necessary. As a matter of fact, just as the British ARM (RISC) architecture is licensed to dominate all mobile platforms, it is said that the American Intel X86 (CISC) architecture, which has been carefully protected for a long time and dominates the desktop computer and server market, will begin to be licensed. Because the only move that can prevent China and Russia from transitioning to a new microprocessor architecture in the future is the expansion of the X86 architecture in other countries, so that it can be constantly updated and customized. In short, in terms of the information and communication sector, 

Looking from the side, we can say that the West is playing a hard and offensive game, while taking measures to prevent the ball on the field from escaping out of bounds.

Conclusion:

The biggest threat for Western countries, especially the USA, is the proliferation of new and unconventional processor and communication architectures. This is a deep move that may cause all the knowledge and experience of the West to be wasted and lose its value as a commercial commodity. However, in our age, creating a new microprocessor architecture and creating an alternative and completely different communication infrastructure to the different and secure TCP/IP protocol with all its layers is seen as a higher possibility than in the past.

Questions that come to mind:

The first question to be answered is: Is there such a purpose? Will high knowledge and computing power be used for this purpose?

Of course, there is another deep question: Have those who ignited these processes already matured alternative technologies such as quantum computing, behind closed doors?