Being Ready for WAR in the Air

In a friendly assembly, “We were going to buy F-16s from the USA. What is your opinion?" A question was posed to me. We told our friends as much as we could. Then, towards the evening of October 10, we sent a tweet series from the STRASAM account and shared the part of our ideas that could be shared with the public on Twitter. This post is an extended version of that tweet series.

Events centered in our region, and risk-increasing discourses and actions that develop beyond our control occupy Turkey's immediate agenda. Now, our days pass around a "security" agenda that occupies more or less the time of our shepherd on the mountain, our people who are concerned about harvesting their crops in their fields, those who are chasing bread in their factories, in short, everyone. Sometimes we are faced with events that are so hot that we say 'war has come to our door'. We live in a geography where great powers such as the USA, the Russian Federation, and China cannot pass without contact, almost 'stuck on their feet'. It is not possible for us to close our eyes to the hot developments around us. We find it useful to briefly touch upon these developments without going too deep.

France, which has extended a branch to Greece, which is swimming in debt up to its throat; He is eager to bring the 'old game' mentality to our field. Instead of dealing with the UK, which is moving away from the European geography with Brexit and AUKUS, it has made it a priority to muddy the waters in the Aegean by arming Greece and saying "keep going, I'm behind you". European Union member countries, including Germany, give approval from afar to this disruptive attitude of France, and exhibit an attitude that leaves the subcontracting to the French.

The "forward deployment" of the USA, which extends to Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and the Baltic countries under the pretext of the exercise, especially the Greek section, is also noteworthy. Before the First World War, although we paid for it, the British; Today, the USA has not stopped showing an approach similar to the seizure of our warships "Sultan Osman" and "Reşadiye", which they were going to deliver in the summer of 1914. Like the UK, which usurped warships, the USA gave up on actually handing over our F-35 warplanes, of which we were partners in the production process, even the delivery ceremony was held, and our pilots and technicians were given combat readiness training. While it was possible to start the so-called US sanctions by giving at least 10-15 planes in return for the "one billion four hundred million American dollars" transferred from the taxes paid by the people of our country to the USA within the scope of the F-35 project, even these planes were not wanted to be given to Turkey, its ally. Subsequently, the increase in the US military deployment in the Greek territory west of Turkey made it necessary for us to reevaluate the American foreign policy, with which we really started our warm relations in 1947, and we did not hesitate to take almost every step we took together. From now on, closely monitoring/preventing the US's military power projections in our region and possible political and military agreements with other countries; It has become a foreign policy and security issue that our country should prioritize.

We do not consider it necessary to repeat the ancient problems between Greece and Turkey here. It is known enough. Here is the issue that we need to focus our attention on; The natural gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean, together with Cyprus, continue to heat the south of Turkey like an ember ready to burn this region at any moment. In addition, the deteriorating relations with Israel, despite the positive course in the commercial field, especially the increasing contacts between this country and Greece, Egypt and the Greek Cypriot Administration, considering the Israel-USA axis, can always invite developments that deserve to be watched carefully.

Syria was dragged into instability with the Arab Spring. However, while in other places the spring gave way to the desert heat, Syria could not achieve the desired stability. The instability overflowing with the influx of 'immigrants' from this country to our lands can be kept under control to a certain extent with the partial financial support received from the Europeans. However, the presence of Syrians, who are about 4 million in total, including Afghans, in our country invites sociological tensions between 'people who were forced to leave their homeland' and our own people. This 'temporary shelter' incident, which has been going on for about ten years, has made the people of the country in trouble. This instability on our southern border has compelled Turkey to take preventive interventions on Syrian territory, and even confronted it with the courtesy of shooting down a Russian plane in the air. The "belt of effort" that Kurdish-origin formations in Syria are trying to knit, taking advantage of this gap, has stretched to the point of being around our necks.

Iraq; In the state-building phase, as expected, there are some difficulties in moving forward. The void in the north and north-west of this country reflects on us as PKK and ISIS terrorism, a kind of nest in a risky structure in our southeast. continues to do its job. Central Iraqi Government; It does not seem possible under the current conditions for Turkey to close its eyes to what is happening in Iraq until it takes control of all Iraqi lands and reaches the competence to fight terrorism.

Iran has moved away from stability since the so-called Islamic Revolution of 1979. Today's Iranian State; he has become the standard bearer of a policy that creates instability for himself and the region. The US-led Western society's sanctions on this country, in the context of "preventing the production of nuclear weapons", in a way that also considers Israel's policies towards Iran, both hinder the normalization of Iran and make it difficult for Turkey to contact the east. While the presence of the Azerbaijani population in the northwest of Iran causes tension in the Iran-Azerbaijan relationship from time to time, it also confronts our country, which is in close contact with Azerbaijan, to the search for new equations. In this context, Iran's close stance to Armenia and Iran's foreign policy that protects this country can play a role in increasing tension on our eastern borders from time to time. In addition, with the 'unlimited' actions of the Armenian diaspora, the Azerbaijan-Armenia war/problems can suddenly become the hot agenda of Turkey.

Georgia, a country that we embraced together with the USA on the NATO axis until 2008, had to withdraw into its own shell after the Russian intervention. Developments in Georgia; It served as a strong stimulus for Turkey not to act arm in arm with the US in its relations with its neighbors. Along with the Caucasus, which witnessed great activity after the Cold War, Georgia continues to present a picture of a dead landscape dominated by peace and stability in the north-east of Turkey.

The Russian Federation, which, as a result of Putin's astute and consistent policies, presents the illusion of a 'greater' power than it actually is, and thus can shape regional policies; In the context of energy security, Turkey continues to be a country that should be approached with kindness. As a result of Turkey's deteriorating relations with the United States, the Russian Federation seems to be an obligatory destination for Turkey. On the other hand, historical mimics reflected from the Turkish-Russian relationship; It serves as a beacon for Turkish politicians to what extent we can be in contact with this country, leading to a 'trust-based' strategic partnership. The breaking points based on Ukraine and Crimea, the conflicts in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, probably show our foreign policy makers that behind the doors expected to be opened on the Russian axis may be dark.

In short, numerous topics that make our foreign policy and security fragile place a great responsibility and duty on the Turkish Governments, no matter who rules Turkey. In order for foreign policy to go hand in hand with a strong economy and a strong army, governments, as Turkey's maestro, must manage these risks correctly, and be able to fly peace pigeons over the country instead of dark clouds.

In the international context, to ensure the security of Turkish lands against risks and possible threats coming from beyond our country's own borders, to ensure the preparation of our armed forces for war, especially the insurance of deterrence and national defense, to add the necessary warfare weapons and tools to the army's inventory, in this context, to increase the necessary military capability pool. Creating is the primary task of the government. In this way, an arms race with Greece should be avoided. It is a necessity to produce national solutions for the existence of a strong army, without confronting our country with a SECURITY DILEMMA, without producing insecurity, without dragging it into an inevitable war trend.

Peace; it can only be possible with the presence of an army with high deterrence. OPERATIONAL INDEPENDENCE, which is the basis of the Army's force structure; however, it can be built in proportion to the development of the defense industry, which has a self-sufficient (self-help) technological analysis and product development capability. Turkey has taken and is taking important steps in this direction. However, it is naturally not sufficient. Unfortunately, the current structure is far from producing a quick solution. However, Turkey's problems are close. The "need for F-16 fighter jets", which has been on our agenda with a foreign press report recently, is not a new situation. This is a known, much talked about fixed need, only the numbers spoken may vary, the need is clear and reasonable.

Turkey is a country that historically has 400-450 fighter jets in its inventory in principle, excluding reconnaissance aircraft. Turkey is a big country. It has a vast terrestrial geography, associated seas beyond its borders, and a large airspace and depth of space above which it must ultimately establish dominance over its land and seas. Land, Sea, Air and Space fields owned by Turkey are a whole, they complement each other. Therefore, the real operational need is that these aircraft numbers It would not be wrong to say that it is on top of it.

However, each country's priorities and realities based on its economy have some constraints. Turkey is not a country that has sunk into stalemates in its foreign policy to the extent that it devotes all its strength to armament. If the conditions are in our favor and we can find a place for ourselves in the league of developed countries, Turkey's target of having around 1000 fighter jets for the coming years will be the preliminary guarantee of its deterrence in its defense.

As a result of the F-4 aircraft being out of inventory, our fighter jet count is currently in the 250-300 band. If 116 F-35s had been purchased, we would only have had around 400 fighter jets. The current political conjuncture dictates that the supply of the F-35 cannot be realized in the near future. In our opinion, S-400s and whirlwind fighter UAVs cannot replace fighter jets. However, in a possible war, all kinds of possibilities and abilities are used, and everything is used on the way to victory. This situation is different.

In the near term (until 2050), Turkey needs to see its way. If we do not take precautions and do not need to take some steps today, we may have to make sharper decisions in the future. Currently, there is no 'aircraft selection' obligation similar to the one in the early 1980s. In fact, if the procurement activities for the force structure envisaged by our Air Force had not been disrupted, the purchase and/or modernization of F-16 fighter jets would not have been on our agenda at the moment. This should also be known as a footnote. Developments beyond the borders of our country, inevitably, adversely affected the force structure envisaged by the Air Force, revised every two years within the scope of defense planning studies, reflected in the ten-year supply plans and strategic target plans, in the context of meeting the operational needs. There may be no problems for the next few years, but Turkey is a regional power. Turkish foreign policy and security perspective do not remove myopia.

In our opinion, all F-16 aircraft in the inventory of the Turkish Air Force should be upgraded to the F-16 Viper Block 70 setting or higher. The 'know-how' aspect of this modernization should be under our control, the entire design, including the source codes, should be the work of our engineering. With the awareness that F-16 warplanes will remain in our inventory until at least the middle of the 2040s, key decisions should be taken by our government. In this sense, with the modernization of the F-16 Block 30, the foundations of a FREE structure were laid. The only thing that needs to be taken into consideration here, first of all, the necessary measures should be taken to accelerate the F-16 ÖZGÜR project. A lot of time has been lost here.

In parallel, an urgent project to modernize all our F-16s as 'ÖZGÜR+' should be put into use, and the completion of this project between 2027-2030 should be closely followed by our government as a priority target (even more than the National Combat Aircraft (MMU) project). delays should not be tolerated. For this, it is sufficient to look at the lessons learned from the Blok 30 Özgür project.

Unfortunately, the National Combat Aircraft (MMU) project is progressing slowly. Even looking at KF-21 as a triangulation project can tell us a lot. Contrary to the prevailing rhetoric, even the delivery of the first aircraft to the Air Force by 2035, not 2028, should be seen as the success of TAI. With the mass production of MMUs to be launched in the mid-2030s, a minimum of 500 truly 5th Generation MMU aircraft should be produced by 2050. In parallel with this calendar, towards the end of the 2030s, the F-16s should be modernized with the 'ÖZGÜR 2+', and some capabilities gained through the MMU production process should be transferred to the F-16s as an acquisition in this context.

Until MMUs became primary aircraft (around the mid-2040s), with the F-16 ÖZGÜR + modernization, the same number of F-35 fighter jets from China or from Russia would replace the 116 F-35 fighter jets that could not be purchased for obvious reasons. The purchase of Su-75s or another equivalent fighter should be considered. Our Air Force's traditional force structure, logistics infrastructure, combat readiness training needs, English-based documentation, NATO-based operational culture and war philosophy, general personnel structure, etc. Integration of Chinese or Russian-made warplanes into the Air Force will certainly be painful. A new fighter jet means putting the Air Force into a restructuring process in a different format. In this context, it may not be accepted or desired to include fifth generation warplanes such as the J-31 or Su-75. This is understandable.

On the other hand, Turkish Politics; THE WORLD SHOULD READ THE STRAP OF THE BALANCE OF POWER TO THE EAST. "Our politics looking for both ends" may create some more problems. At the very least, it's troubling the Air Force Force Structure. Benefiting from China's military rise, according to the conjuncture, rose from the ground in the 2010s.

As we have done within the scope of avaya air defense weapon systems, contacting this country in the size of a warplane can be put on the agenda by analyzing its benefits and drawbacks. In fact, every time we turn north or east there is a danger of exposing us to a de facto situation that distances us from the West and from NATO. There will be a redemption for every choice.

Conclusion

Turkey, in air projects;

- Accelerate the F-16 Block 30 ÖZGÜR project,

- All F-16 aircraft; The F-16 must be subjected to ÖZGÜR + modernization (between 2027 and 2030 at the latest),

- At least 110-120 fifth generation fighter aircraft should be purchased,

- Possible delays of the MMU project should be foreseen, metrics should be created and followed, factors and obstacles that may cause delay should be removed,

- All F-16s should be upgraded to 'ÖZÜR 2+' for the second time (2037-2040),

- By 2050, around 500 fifth generation MMUs should be produced and added to the inventory of the Turkish Air Force.

In parallel with the WAR JET supply/production processes, the focus should be on the production of combat drones (jets), integrated-multilayer surface-to-air national air defense weapon systems, and hypersonic missiles together with electronic warfare and radar technologies. Combat UAV projects should be carried out in integration with MMU and other manned warplanes, and their use should be based on a network-based operation-based war philosophy.

The purpose of this article is to contribute to raising awareness and to share a perspective on fighter jets, based on the need for F-16 fighter jets that have come to the forefront of the public. After all, having a strong army is the pride of every Turkish citizen and the guarantee of his security. Waste of time in this area could cost us our tomorrow. With this awareness, we saw it as our duty to convey our ideas to our political and military authorities.