Power Building Based on the Strategic Autonomy of NATO's European Wing

EU's Search for Strategic Autonomy:

The NATO-European Union (EU) axis sees it as a necessity for Europe to build its strategic autonomy in a different structure from NATO, due to the constraints in the use of the NATO common talent pool. This situation pushes non-EU NATO countries (USA, Canada, England, Turkey, etc.) to take more responsibility on the NATO wing, and NATO-EU member countries to use more resources in both NATO and EU wings, in two separate lanes. It is not yet clear whether the European wing is ready to take on such a responsibility.

Are Europeans Ready to Use Their Soldiers Against the Russians?

If a European military power structure compatible with NATO is to be established, it is expected that this power will have the competence and competence to counter the Russian threat in Europe. In particular, a European structure that will guarantee the security of Eastern European countries has to be built. For this, it is considered necessary as a 'pre-condition' in terms of EU member states that the US and other members that are not members of the EU should drop their objections. At the same time, it is a necessity to increase the shares allocated to the defense budgets from the gross national product of the EU member states. In the middle of the Russia-Ukraine War, Germany's announcement that it would increase its defense budget should be interpreted as a trend in this direction.

In today's conditions, there is a necessity to reach a special cooperation agreement between European allies who accept that strategic autonomy will impose more strategic responsibilities and other non-EU NATO allies. If such an agreement is reached between NATO and the EU, it will require the incorporation of fundamental principles into the new strategic concepts of both organisations.

Is Macron's or NATO's Brain-Dead?

In fact, the need for a European approach in this context is mostly expressed by France within the union. Instead of “brain-dead” NATO, in the words of President Macron; The construction of a strong Europe is considered important for France, which does not want to be dependent on the USA and wants to have a say in the security and military context in Europe by "offering" the French defense industry products to the use of all of Europe. In other words, France; It acts with the desire to replace the USA in Europe, to sell its weapons industry products to European countries, to increase its influence in Europe, and to become the leader country of Europe in the field of defense, if possible.

In this sense, the majority of European countries expressed their discomfort with the tensions within the Alliance during the former President Trump era. In addition, due to recent flawed American consultations, such as the Australian submarine agreement (the breakdown of the submarine production program agreement signed by the French with the Australians), including its decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan from 15-31 August 2021 without even consulting the European members in NATO, Europe's strategic European countries have started to express that they need more autonomy.

EU Leadership in Eastern Europe:

The willingness to develop capabilities in the European wing of NATO will come to life in a way that will benefit the USA from now on under the new conditions. Because the USA; It has to shift its military capabilities to the Indo-Pacific region to deter the rising China, which has an "aggressive" stance towards American interests in Asia. If the European side is ready to take responsibility for the Russians and meet the required capabilities, it will be the United States itself that will benefit the most. Thus, the USA; Instead of dealing with both Russia and China at the same time, it will be able to devote all its strength to keeping China under control, together with its close allies based on AUKUS (USA, UK and Australia). A Russia that will be occupied by Europe will not find time to support China. The radical changes that started to be exhibited in the "defense of Europe" approach, which started to rise with the Russia-Ukraine War, are important in this respect. Even without Germany, Poland's taking the lead in the defense of Eastern Europe against the Russians forced Germany and France into the game. The US leadership in the person of Biden is forcing the EU countries to take a strong NATO stance in Eastern Europe. The emergence of an unified NATO image at NATO's Brussels Summit held on March 24, 2022, created satisfaction in terms of the success of the sanctions imposed on the Russians by the American leadership. Now, force shifts to Eastern Europe are considered important in terms of displaying military attitudes as well as sanctions. The US hopes to see a natural EU leadership.

On the other hand, even if the US approval is obtained in the NATO-EU capability development axis, NATO's future visions in this context, in the final analysis, will be considered as Indo-Pacific. 

The position and attitude of NATO members, such as Turkey, who have no interests in the region and are not included in the European wing because they are not members of the EU, will play a decisive role. In this respect, Turkish foreign policy and the defense community may need to be ready to make mandatory assessments, including the 'crossroads'.

NATO, A Global Security Organization:

As it is known, after the Cold War, NATO restructured itself to carry out out-of-area operations within the framework of the world policing approach, in line with global security needs, without compromising its collective defense philosophy. In this context, NATO countries are heavily dependent on American military capabilities. Without the USA, the EU cannot currently undertake a major operation on its own. In other words, without US military power, European countries do not yet have the military capabilities to counter the Russians or a similar threat to this country. All EU countries, such as Germany, need to decisively develop an EU talent pool matched to NATO over many years. Europe has never been willing to achieve this, the need for EU capabilities at the discourse level has been expressed in various platforms, reflected in some concept studies. The lack of resources for this purpose, the trust in NATO, and the avoidance of facilitation hindered the formation of the EU army.

Is the EU Sincere?

In fact, Europe has not sincerely needed such a force structure until now. Countries in the European wing of the alliance; In order to get rid of their dependence on the USA, first of all, strategic transportation, strategic bombing, aerial refueling, etc. must have skills. This indicates to the Europeans that the capabilities in the defense industry infrastructure of Europe should go to a planned union of efforts. It does not seem possible that an EU structure, in which the UK has left with Brexit, will not produce these capabilities in the short term, and it shows that the dependence of Europeans on Americans will continue for at least 10 more years.

When 2030 is targeted, it has made the synchronized and coordinated progress of NATO and the EU a mandatory choice. This trend is about to appear before the two international organizations in a way that cannot be avoided. It may be possible that the EU wing will turn to a defense planning for the Russians on the Eastern European front under the leadership of France-Germany. The consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War may force EU countries to do so. Other members may need to focus on the Indo-Pacific front under the US-UK leadership as a priority. Thus, the NATO-EU axis can become a common and truly global alliance in the context of shared interests and values, or they can strongly maintain their existence in the global balance of power as two different alliances acting jointly. As a result, NATO and the EU can implement new strategic concepts capable of waging simultaneous two-front warfare. The European wing may necessarily choose to acquire new concept-based talents. EU countries can allocate the necessary resources for this. European wealth and heritage can easily handle this.

Will the EU's Dependency on the US be Overcome?

This new approach requires Europeans to take steps towards “getting rid of US dependency”, which they have not been able to implement for various reasons for half a century. New strategic concepts to be developed depending on the two-front war scenario; It obliges European countries to take on new responsibilities and increase their defense expenditures. If Europe takes this path, the security dilemma syndrome that already exists between China and the USA will also occur between the EU and Russia. Such approaches and military power formations that will pave the way for the third world war will continue to occupy the world agenda for the next few years.

Two Fronts  Two Great War Scenarios:

Every step that NATO and the EU will take, individually or together, towards the scenario of a "great two-front war" will serve to make the footsteps of the Third World War more heard by all humanity.

Within Europe, the northern flank consciously sought to consolidate and develop its common capabilities. The conventional military threat from Russia to Europe is severely affecting the Nordic and Baltic states on the front line stretching from the Arctic to the Barents Sea and the Baltic Sea region. Some of these countries are not even NATO or EU members. These countries on the northern flank include Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland and Sweden, and they are currently living with the Russian threat. Since Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, these countries have focused on strengthening their own defenses and engaging in various defense cooperation arrangements, in concert with their other Euro-Atlantic allies and partners. The Russia-Ukraine War accelerated this process and carried the searches to a serious dimension. 

Situation of Finland and Sweden:

Standing out as two non-NATO and militarily non-aligned countries in the region, Finland and Sweden's role in regional security, their level of cooperation with other countries in the northern flank, serve to reveal new opportunities for deterrence and defense in the northeast of Europe. These two countries also encourage other northern flank countries for positive cooperation as they seek to build an interlocking network of security relations to improve defense in the region. The main regulations developed by the north wing are:

- Finland-Sweden bilateral defense relationship,
- Scandinavian Defense Cooperation,
- Scandinavian-Baltic Eight,
- Northern Group,
- NATO Partnerships,
- European union,
- Temporary arrangements such as the Joint Expeditionary Force, the Framework Nations Concept and the European Intervention Initiative
- Finland-Sweden-US trilateral and bilateral defense cooperation.

The possible NATO membership of these two countries may be on the agenda in the future, but it is not seen as a priority issue for now (taking into account the Russian reactions).

Evaluation:

Such initiatives will contribute to the emergence of a positive defense identity and synergy across Europe, but if all European Union countries do not act together, it will not be possible for a power-building process to be successful in the short term as the United States expects. It is evaluated that the existence of the problem of being 'defenseless' against Russia without the presence of the Russian Federation may continue in the 2020s.

After all, through the Alliance, Western Europe and North America not only defended their independence jointly. They also achieved an unprecedented level of stability. As a matter of fact, the global security responsibility undertaken by NATO has been defined as the “oxygen” of the environment of prosperity and wealth, which forms the basis of European economic cooperation and integration. It also paved the way for the end of the Cold War and European integration in the early 1990s.

Conclusion:

Sustainability of Europe's wealth and prosperity, which has hungrily enjoyed the fruits of its security and defense dimension, is requested to be on the taxpayers living in EU countries instead of American taxpayers. This is the basis of US discourses after the Cold War. The Russo-Ukrainian War will act as a catalyst for this, and it has started to do so.