Transition from Cold Peace to Hot War

The US doctrine during the hot war period of 1914-1918 and 1939-1945 was embodied in the mainstream of realism: to impose its power on the entire world by force of arms. Almost the entire continent of Europe and partly Asia was devastated by these two catastrophic wars. The fact that there was no direct attack on its country in either war is one of the main reasons why the United States became one of the dominant and leading actors of the Cold War period, which started in the 1950s after the end of the hot war period and continued until the collapse of the USSR in 1991. During this period, the main political goal of the US, which maintained its hegemony in different parts of the world, sometimes through controlling and sometimes through shaping policies, was to prevent the expansion, growth and development of the other bloc led by the USSR. Implementing this prevention through containment policies, the US supported countries such as Turkey, Greece and Iran through various aid schemes and organization memberships and protected them from USSR expansionism.

In the unipolar world order that began in 1991 and lasted until 2001, the US used the benefits of globalization to its own advantage, failed to ensure the fair, equal and inclusive distribution of the economic wealth created by capitalism after the collapse of communism, and became one of the main reasons for the emergence of new jihadist terrorist organizations. In 2001, the United States, which had not been attacked on its own soil even during the world wars, was startled by the attacks on its heartland by terrorists using hijacked airplanes and led the world to a new order. There was a return to bipolarity, with states led by the US on one side and states that allegedly supported terrorism and terrorist organizations on the other, neorealism policies were implemented with the concept of counterterrorism, and a decade of neoidealism was shattered.

As a result of this bipolar world order that lasted until 2011, popular movements against terrorism and oppressive regimes led to the Arab Spring and then to the Syrian crisis that would affect the whole world. The US's transformation of the fight against terrorism into a fight using terrorism, and its desire to control and weaken countries that could rival it through terrorism, led to proxy wars and the evolution of the world order into multipolarity. The era of states fighting terrorism together was interrupted due to the US's desire to preserve its hegemony and prioritize its own interests and interests, and terrorism changed its size and name and reemerged as a crime against humanity.

During the cold peace period, that is, in this new world order that started with Obama, continued with Trump and reached its peak with Biden, not only the United States, but all global and regional powers have started to use non-state organizations, organizations, powers without fighting among themselves, pitting them against each other if necessary for their own country's interests, that is, fighting their proxies.

Cold peace has been the primary policy used by global powers all over the world and by regional powers in their own regions.

The main policy of states during the cold peace period;

1. Infiltrate crisis regions by using terrorism, freedom fighters or embattled governments,

2. To make their proxies fight and

3. Avoiding absolute conflict among themselves.

The biggest problem in this period is the power struggle in crisis areas. While regional powers close to the crisis area do not hesitate to intervene in all non-state formations that may pose a problem to their security, global powers provide all kinds of support to non-state formations that serve their interests. In the case of the Syrian crisis, this situation between Turkey and the US is an indication that states in the same alliance can face a cold peace when their interests do not coincide.

What US policymakers fail to understand and are mistaken about is the assessment and grading of the effectiveness of each state in its own region. They fail to grasp the logic that every rooster crows in its own turf. Ignoring this reality and continuing to support terrorist organizations and organizations that commit crimes against humanity will cause the US great trouble in the future. Yes, the US may be a superpower, even the greatest power, but everyone has a house, a backyard and a neighborhood. You cannot implement policies there, especially those that harm the residents of the neighborhood. The fact that the United States, which claims to represent the values of the modern world such as democracy, human rights and the rule of law, continues to support terrorism and terrorist organizations and formations just for its own interests will not be accepted by any country that is negatively affected by this policy and is responsible for its own security. As these countries are forced to establish closer relations with each other for their own interests and survival, the US will become increasingly isolated and will become an unhappy, mediocre and metasensical leader state with poor relations with other states. At this rate, it is obvious that this leadership will not last very long.

This environment of political convulsion and turmoil affects not only the US but also all states, the defense reflex of other states increases against this flawed thinking and policy of the US, and the anti-Americanism is consolidated around Russia in political terms and China in economic terms. Therefore, the biggest beneficiary of the cold peace policy implemented by the US is Russia, the loser of the Cold War and the surviving state of the USSR. If the US does not give up these wrong policies, does not improve its relations even with the states it is in the same alliance with, and continues to support terrorist organizations in line with its own interests, it will accelerate the growing anti-Americanism in the world and lose its economic leadership to China and its political leadership to Russia. The mere fact of military and technological supremacy will not be enough to maintain the status of the world's greatest superpower in the future.

With Russia's intervention in Ukraine, the era of cold peace in Mackinder's heartland is over and wars between states have begun. Instead of non-state actors, states like Ukraine are now the proxy. The second act of the hot war continues in the Middle East with Israel's war against the entire Palestinian people and state under the guise of Hamas. 

The shapers of the world order have once again come into play in a new and intense way. Being militarily, politically and economically ready for hot wars is once again the main duty of states. With the rapid implementation of security policies, it is obvious that regional hot war environments will increase. If states and international organizations fail to take the necessary measures, unfortunately, chaotic years are coming when the flames of hot war will spread all over the world.

In this period when states and nations ruled by unqualified rulers will suffer great damage, only those who emphasize strategy, reason and science will survive, and authoritarian dictatorships and non-secularism will be buried in the dusty pages of history.