What is the European Sky Shield Initiative? Why Turkey, the S-400 Owner, Engaged in this Initiative? What Can Turkey Gain?

The European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI-European Sky Shield Initiative) is a project to develop a land-based system that includes anti-ballistic missile capabilities and aims to provide air defense for European countries. Currently, 21 countries have shown their willingness to be part of the project. At the NATO defense ministerial summit in Brussels on February 15, German, Greek and Turkish defense ministers announced that Turkey and Greece would join the initiative. On February 16, a signing ceremony was held. Coincidentally, these two countries joined NATO together 72 years ago on the same date.

How was the European Sky Shield Initiative born?

The ESSI was first proposed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August 2022. During the Russian-Ukrainian War that started on 24 February 2022, I believe that Germany raised the issue in the context of jointly addressing the lack of capability in the defense of Europe after it became clear that Ukrainian air defenses against Russian ballistic and cruise missiles (including hypersonic missiles) were inadequate and that the rest of the European countries did not have the capacity to counter such an attack in the event of a similar Russian attack. 

The 9 European NATO member states (Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Slovenia) have responded positively to Germany's call. At the NATO defense ministerial meeting on October 13, 2023, the defense ministers signed a memorandum of understanding to develop the Berlin-led European Sky Shield Initiative. 

This initiative is apparently a response to the perceived vulnerability in Europe to the kind of attacks that Russia has launched against Ukrainian infrastructure. Air and missile defense, once one of NATO's main concerns, was neglected as perceived threats diminished. But the Russia-Ukraine war has brought Europe's lack of defense back into the spotlight. This war showed that military and civilian infrastructure and population centers, as well as troops in the theater of operations, were vulnerable. 

Taking this reality into account, this initiative aims to facilitate the joint procurement of air and missile defense systems by ESSI member states, reduce costs, increase operational flexibility and enhance system interoperability. 

This will also strengthen NATO's integrated air and missile defense. Indeed, the German Ministry of Defense has described the goal of the ESSI initiative as "strengthening the European pillar of NATO's common air defense". The initiative also aims to strengthen the NATO Integrated Air Defense System. The initiative is attracting attention for its potential to help ESSI member states become better able to defend themselves against missile, rocket or aircraft attacks.

The ESSI plans to use air defense and weapon systems that will be integrated with each other in a multi-layered, all-encompassing and in-depth architecture against missiles. For example, anti-ballistic systems such as the German IRIS-T SLM with a range of 35 km, the MIM-104 Patriot with a range of 100 km, and the US-Israeli Arrow-3 with a range of over 100 km are planned to be used in an integrated structure within the ESSI architecture. 

German Chancellor Scholz said in December 2022 that he hoped the project would be fully developed within the next five years. Six months later, the German parliament approved the purchase of the Arrow-3 anti-ballistic missile system from Israel for around €4 billion ($4.3 billion). Therefore, at the time, it was interpreted that the most important procurement step towards the establishment of the ESSI system under the leadership of Germany had been taken.

ESSI Member Countries

In October 2022, 15 European countries (Germany, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Finland, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Norway, Norway, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) signed a declaration and established the AGKG initiative. Finland, Denmark and Sweden later joined the initiative. In July 2023, the European neutral states of Austria and Switzerland also signed a declaration to join the initiative, sparking public debate on the future and viability of neutrality policies. Finally, on February 16, 2024, Turkey and Greece signed the instrument of accession to the project in Brussels.

The absence of Italy and France in the project is particularly striking. France and Italy, claiming that this initiative for the defense of Europe relies too heavily on air defense weapons and systems developed by non-European countries (the US, Israel, etc.), react to the fact that the Franco-Italian co-production SAMP-T missile defense system is not considered as part of the ESSI initiative.

Italy and France, the two main users of the SAMP/T system, are geographically distant from the Russian threat. Both countries therefore do not need the immediate use of the modernized Block 1 missiles they already have, unlike the Eastern European countries. For these two countries, the sale of these jointly produced missile systems and their becoming a preferred system by other countries may be a higher priority and important issue.

Turkey and Greece Join the Initiative as of February 15, 2024

Last week's joint Turkish-Greek letter of intent to join the initiative comes just days after Donald Trump criticized NATO partners for failing to meet the alliance's spending targets.

As is well known, US administrations have attached great importance to two issues within the alliance since its inception. The first of these is the continuation of NATO's institutional structure and burden sharing in meeting collective defense needs. The second is the sustainability of American leadership (and related policies). However, during the Cold War, cost-sharing was not much of an issue for the US, which largely preferred to bear NATO's costs itself. In the post-Cold War era, however, as embodied in former President Trump's statements, the US now expects European countries to do more in the defense of Europe. In this context, the Russia-Ukraine war is being used by the US as a 'weapon' against European countries, especially Germany. As a result, Germany, which has been forced by the US to increase its defense budget, is leading the establishment of a European defense architecture, especially to procure air defense systems as soon as possible. 

Meanwhile, NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană said: "This initiative helps translate allied commitments on defense spending into concrete capabilities for our common defense. It also clearly demonstrates the commitment of European allies to fair burden-sharing." In a sense, this is a meaningful European response to the United States, and especially to former President Trump. On the other hand, it should also be noted. The ESSI architecture is designed as a defense capability separate from NATO, and notably includes Austria and Switzerland, which are not NATO members and joined the initiative in mid-2023.

What is Turkey's place in the ESSI architecture with its Russian-made S-400 defense system?

Turkish Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler called the participation "an important step towards fulfilling NATO's requirements," adding that Turkey is "ready to contribute to this initiative with its vast national resources."

Turkey, a NATO member, has already purchased Russian-made S-400 air defense weapons, raising questions about the interoperability of the S-400 system with Western systems owned by other members of the initiative. I do not expect the S-400 missile defense system, which has been excluded from NATO's air defense architecture and even led to Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program, to be integrated into the ESSI architecture. This is because the defense of Europe and the defense of NATO cannot be separated from each other. At the Istanbul Summit in 2004, NATO pushed the button for the establishment of a missile defense shield called 'ALTBMD-Active Layered Tactical Ballistic Missile Defense' (ALTBMD-Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense). Along with this project, Turkey has been deploying the X-Band AN/TPY-2 advanced early warning radar in Kürecik/Malatya since 2012 as part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) Program, which became operational in September 2009. Turkey welcomes the fact that NATO considers ballistic missiles originating from the Middle East, particularly Iran, as a threat to the alliance and has started to implement defensive measures to neutralize this threat, providing protection to at least 2/3 of Turkey, if not the entire region. However, the fact that the S-400 missile defense system has not been integrated with NATO systems to date remains a handicap for Turkey.

The reality is that, unfortunately, it was not possible to add a modern and effective air defense system to the inventory of the Turkish Air Force until the foreign purchase of the S-400. The S-400 purchased from Russia is far from meeting Turkey's air defense system requirements.

On the other hand, the SAMP-T, which Turkey has been considering from time to time for procurement, is a missile defense system that can meet Turkey's military needs. However, now that France and Italy have shown reluctance to join the ESSI, I expect Turkey to take the procurement of the SAMP-T off its agenda as it has shown its willingness to become part of the ESSI on February 16.

ESSI Membership Could Facilitate Sales of Turkish-Made Missile Defense Systems to European Countries

Within the scope of the ESSI, which is being developed under the leadership of Berlin, many European countries, especially Germany, are expected to invest in new generation air defense systems, and even prioritize them. In this context, the layered missile defense family that Turkey has developed/is developing has the potential to offer new solutions for European countries that are members of the ESSI. In my opinion, the fact that the Turkish air defense missile family, which is capable of providing air defense for a maneuvering army against multiple threats, has been produced in compliance with NATO standards, can play a role in increasing Turkey's export potential in the defense industry in this field.

In order to accelerate Turkey's national efforts in this field, Turkey may benefit from the Aster-based SAMP/T systems in order to overcome the deficiency in the current high-altitude layer. EUROSAM is valuable as a European project, and it is obvious that in the defense of Europe, which is part of the Atlantic Basin, European systems of its own production would be preferred over Israeli systems. At this point, taking into account Turkey's status as a European country and its NATO membership, the integration/export of Turkish missile defense systems to Europe could be possible through a cooperation model to be developed with EUROSAM. Such an approach would be preferable as it would offer additional gains to both sides. Ultimately, Turkey could catalyze France and Italy to join the ESSI. Turkey's leading role in the defense of Europe, using the European Union force pool and its capabilities for NATO purposes when necessary, could also be supported by non-European NATO members such as the United States. In a sense, Turkey could increase its influence within the ESSI, similar to that of the former Western European Union (WEU). 

Conclusion

With the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the defense of Europe against Russian missiles was put on the agenda of European countries by Germany. The basic approach of this project, which later became known as the European Sky Shield Initiative, is the joint procurement and joint operation of missile defense weapons and systems, with cooperation ideally extending to logistics, maintenance and repair. This approach is theoretically seen as a step that could reduce costs and improve interoperability for each participating country. Thus, instead of national systems being used in European defense like a patchwork of disconnected national systems, the aim is to create an LSS architecture with the same or similar systems to be procured together. This architecture is also expected to serve NATO as a new and common capability. However, I believe that it is still unclear what exactly the signatories to the ESSI are signing up for. This includes Turkey.

The ESSI is touted as an attempt to address the current lack of cohesion in Europe regarding the development of air and missile defense. At the same time, however, it stands out as an initiative that runs counter to the EU objectives of strengthening Europe's defense industrial base and developing sovereign capabilities. It is as if the US is dictating to European countries that these goals be abandoned in favor of urgent operational needs (the Russian threat). If, similar to what Germany has done, the ESSI member states are forced to install the Arrow 3, Patriot and IRIS-T SLM air and missile architectures on their own soil, especially if the SAMP-T is left off the agenda altogether, this could not only be a disruptive factor for the European Union as a whole, but also undermine the defense industries of European countries. 

Ultimately, this could hamper Turkey's efforts to develop long-range missile defense systems. Turkey should not allow this to happen. I believe that Turkey should consider working with France and Italy to ensure that European countries prioritize the procurement of French-Italian co-production SAMP-T over American and Israeli systems in the context of the ESSI. To complement this approach, Turkey should initiate an aggressive and encouraging sales policy with the ESSI countries to procure the Turkish-made Hisar and Siper families to meet the layered defense needs of European countries. 

References

NATO Website, “10 NATO Allies take further step to boost European air and missile defence capabilities”, 11 Ekim 2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_219119.htm

Douglas Barrie, Bastian Giegerich, “European missile defence - right questions, unclear answers?”, IISS Military Balancı Blog, 10 Şubat 2023, https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis//military-balance/2023/02/european-missile-defence-right-questions-unclear-answers

Linus Höller, “Turkey and Greece to join European missile shield”, Defensenews, 16 Şubat 2024, https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/16/turkey-and-greece-to-join-european-missile-shield/

Avrupa Gökyüzü Kalkanı Girişimi, https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avrupa_Gökyüzü_Kalkanı_Girişimi

Hüseyin Fazla (2022), 1952’den 2022’ye NATO ve Türkiye, Nobel Yayınları, Ankara.

Aybars Meriç, “EUROSAM SAMP/T Programı Türkiye’ye Fayda Sağlar mı?”, STRASAM, 8 Nisan 2022, https://strasam.org/savunma/savunma-sanayii/eurosam-samp-t-programi-turkiyeye-fayda-saglar-mi-685