Can ATACMS Tactical Missile System Win Ukraine the War?

Specifications of the ATACMS System 

The Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a conventional surface-to-surface artillery weapon system capable of hitting targets far beyond the range of conventional artillery, rockets and other missiles in the inventory of the world's armies. ATACMS missiles are fired from wheeled M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and tracked M270 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) platforms known as Multiple Launch Rocket Launcher System (MLRS).

The MGM-140 ATACMS enables ground commanders to engage targets with long-range, guided missiles in surface-to-surface fires that provide instant firepower to shape the battlefield. Each ATACMS missile is packaged similarly to an MLRS launch pod and is fired from MLRS family launchers.

With a range of up to 300 kilometers (190 miles), ATACMS missiles use GPS guidance. Weighing 500 pounds, the WDU18-type warheads can be either cluster-activated or can be produced with a device that provides coating on the target.  

ATACMS is one of the next generation surface-to-surface missiles developed by Ling-Temco-Vought (LTV) and modified by Lockheed Martin. Each missile is 13 feet (4 meters) long and 24 inches (610 mm) in diameter and uses solid fuel. The ATACMS missile development project was initiated in 1980. This project was later merged with DARPA's Assault Breaker missile system and the Air Force's Conventional Standoff Weapon (CSW) project in 1981 and renamed as the joint tactical missile system. Nevertheless, in the following years, the project was continued on behalf of the Land Forces under the name ATACMS.

ATACMS System Improvement Programs

The first use of the ATACMS system in operational conditions was during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. During this war, 32 missiles were fired using the M270 MLRS system and were recorded as highly successful trials. Taking strength from this, the US Army launched more than 450 ATACMS missiles at Iraqi positions during the invasion of Iraq in 2003. They hit a large number of targets. However, given its high cost, the program had to be shut down by the US Army. Nevertheless, the systems were kept operational until the ATACMS missiles in the inventory were spent. Later on, the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) was also implemented to keep the ATACMS missiles operational. 

With the SLEP modernization, the missile system's firing and guidance systems were improved. Cluster bomb-style missile warheads were integrated into the system. Different precision fuzes (proximity) were also introduced to meet the desired coverage requirements. Although the SLEP program, supported by Lockheed Martin, extended the service life of ATACMS missiles until 2022, in line with the latest evaluations, it was decided that these missiles would remain in the US Army's inventory for a while longer. 

Accordingly, Lockheed Martin was asked to integrate the WDU-18/B warhead (M57 warhead) used in Harpoon missiles into ATACMS missiles. This ongoing process is projected to be completed in 2024. On the other hand, although the seeker integration project, which is intended to be integrated into ATACMS missile warheads to search, find and hit moving targets on the surface (land and sea), was initiated in 2016, this project had to be terminated in December 2020 due to overlaps with similar warhead programs. Nevertheless, the Pentagon has approved the production of 1,700 additional ATACMS missiles in 2023. Therefore, it appears that the ATACMS system will continue to be used by the US Army for many years to come.

ATACMS System Delivered to Ukraine Gives Russia a Hard Time

After their use in Iraq, ATACMS are currently undergoing their most serious test in Ukraine. In October 2023, 20 months after the Russian-Ukrainian War, which began on February 24, 2022, the United States made the ATACMS system available to the Ukrainian Army. 

With the use of these missiles, the Ukrainian Army gained the firepower to cover the entire Russian land corridor in the south of the country. In addition, most of Russia's air bases inside Ukraine (north of Crimea) were also within the range of ATACMS. This disrupted the ability of Russian attack helicopters based at these airbases to conduct air operations, and resulted in fewer Russian attack helicopters being seen deep inside Ukraine. ATACMS, which made things difficult for the Russian Army over the course of a few weeks, has attracted a lot of attention from experts following this war as an effective weapon in the field that has been of great benefit to the Ukrainian Army. In other words, ATACMS suddenly became a much talked about weapon. As a matter of fact, nowadays, there are reports from the front that ATACMS, which are still very new in the field of operation, have started to give Russian Army units a hard time. As a precautionary measure, there are assessments that the Russians will be forced to shift critical striking force elements within the range of ATACMS to safer rear areas.

Unlike other arms aid to Ukraine, the US preferred to send the ATACMS system quietly. For this reason, it can be said that very few people were aware of the arrival of the ATACMS until they were seen on the ground. This 'silence' led to a surprise attack by ATACMS on Russian air bases at night, when the Russians least expected it, and the Ukrainian Army came under fire. During these initial strikes, intelligence assessments indicated that at least 9 Russian military helicopters and other high-value equipment stationed at airbases near Berdiansk and Luhansk were destroyed. This first use also demonstrated the effectiveness of the ATACMS missiles eventually delivered to Ukraine, especially those with cluster warheads. 

ATACMS missiles delivered to Ukraine are short-range versions with cluster warheads only

So far, the US is believed to have supplied Ukraine with versions of ATACMS that can reach a maximum range of 100 miles, rather than the longest range (186 miles). While there is no official confirmation yet on the timing and scale of the new missile deliveries, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba has said that the US is expected to continue regular deliveries of ATACMS missiles and to send longer-range versions of the ATACMS.

Ukraine is expected to continue to use its cluster ATACMS missiles effectively against air defense systems, warships, ammunition depots and maintenance units, which are considered relatively unprotected targets in addition to ground-based helicopters and aircraft. For this reason, the Russian Army urgently needs to shift its unprotected systems and equipment to sheltered, more remote areas. The most critical element for the Russians here is attack helicopters. This is because the Russian Army has been conducting deep operations with attack helicopters from time to time in order to prevent Ukraine from launching a possible counter-attack. The arrival of ATACMS has, in a sense, eliminated the Russian superiority in the field. Since attack helicopters would be the most attractive targets for ATACMS when they are deployed on the ground, the Russians need to either keep attack helicopters deployed to air bases close to the front line in sheltered bunkers or shift them to rear areas. Given that there are not enough bunkers available, the Russians have no other near-term option but to deploy helicopters to the rear. In this case, it will become increasingly difficult for Russian attack helicopters, which will be deployed to bases far from the front line, to reach the Ukrainian Army's rear areas and conduct deep operations. The vulnerability of the Russians to ATACMS attacks naturally strengthens the Ukrainian Army's hand. If the Russians fail to develop the necessary preemptive measures for ATACMS, we can argue that they will not prevent the Ukrainian Army from launching its counter-offensive next spring.

I believe that one of the most important targets of ATACMS in the coming weeks will be the Russian air defense systems deployed to protect Russian troops in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. As with attack helicopters, the use of Russian air defense systems within the effective range of ATACMS missiles will be compromised. This means that Russian air defense systems will find it difficult to provide protection to the Russian army against Ukrainian air attacks. In fact, there are reports that Ukraine is targeting S-400 SAMs near Luhansk with ATACMS missiles. 

Within a few months, the possibility of methodical destruction of Russian air defense systems by ATACMS has emerged. It is foreseen that if Russian defensive weapons are cleared, Ukrainian drones and Storm Shadow cruise missiles, also supplied with British military assistance, will be able to more effectively harass Russian military units, even in the rear zone of the Russian front. It will be recalled that in the summer, Ukraine carried out attacks to disable the air defense systems in the Russian-occupied Crimea one by one. As a result, in September of this year, it had no difficulty in carrying out attacks targeting a Russian warship, a submarine and the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Similarly, the integrated air defense system that provides protection to Russian troops in eastern and southeastern Ukraine could be eliminated/suppressed over time, Ukrainian air platforms, especially UAVs used for tactical reconnaissance missions, could monitor every move of Russian troops, and it would be easier to intensify UAV strikes on critical areas when necessary.

Conclusion

The ATACMS missiles currently being delivered to the Ukrainian Army use cluster warheads of the fragmentation type. In its current form, ATACMS missiles are undoubtedly not a powerful weapon capable of decisively changing the entire balance and dynamics of the war in Ukraine's favor. Moreover, it is unlikely that ATACMS missile warheads will be able to hit logistically important targets such as bridges and fortified command and control installations, which are highly important logistically, as they are the connecting points of roads. This is because cluster warheads are only effective against soft targets. However, ATACMS warheads, which are effective against hard targets, require the use of warheads with appropriate characteristics. Unless the US provides Ukraine with longer-range ATACMS versions that can also be used against hard targets, this weapon will not be able to play the 'game-changing' role that would win the war for Ukraine, while disorganizing the troops on the Russian front.