TAI has spent 600 million USD from its own resources for Atak II, the government should not allow this money to be wasted and the project to be canceled

US Army Cancels Next Generation Attack and Reconnaissance Helicopter Development Project FARA

On Thursday last week, the US Army announced that it will cancel the next-generation Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) helicopter program, in which it has invested approximately $ 2.4 billion in development since 2018. Known as the next-generation attack and reconnaissance helicopter development project, the FARA project aimed to develop a next-generation helicopter to replace the OH-58 Kiowa Warrior helicopter, which was completely out of inventory in 2019. This makes FARA the third project that was commissioned to replace the OH-58 helicopter, but was later canceled for various reasons. 

In 2004, the Army canceled the planned replacement for the OH-58, the stealthy RAH-66 Comanche, after spending a total of USD 7 billion and more than a decade of development. Four years later, after investing between 2 and 6 billion dollars in the development of the ARH-70A Arapaho to replace the OH-58, this project was also canceled. 

RAH-66 Comanche

ARH-70A Arapaho

The decision to cancel the FARA project represents an abrupt change in American plans for ground aviation in the 2030s. In a press release justifying the cancellation, the US Army stated that the reason for abandoning the program after spending more than two billion dollars was based on lessons learned and a reassessment of the modern battlefield. This decision was taken as part of the "Review of Land Aviation Projects". The US Army aims to "develop state-of-the-art, more competent and effective unmanned aerial reconnaissance capabilities with high survivability, and to meet some of its needs through off-the-shelf procurement of commercially available small unmanned aerial vehicles." Therefore, instead of manned FARA helicopters, unmanned versions are currently being developed.

As seen in the case of FARA, which aims to field a small helicopter for reconnaissance and light attack missions, the US Army now believes that it can save the estimated USD 5 billion allocated for FARA development by transferring this role to a variety of low-cost UAVs. These savings are expected to be used to fund the continued production of the Boeing CH-47F Block II Chinook, which the Army currently requires.

"We are learning from the battlefield - particularly in Ukraine - that aerial reconnaissance is fundamentally changing," said General Randy George, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. "Sensors and weapons mounted on a variety of unmanned systems and in space are ubiquitous, reach a wider area, and provide a cheaper service than ever before. I am confident that the military can acquire the capabilities needed by accelerating the innovation, procurement, and fielding of modern unmanned aircraft systems."

Thus, FARA shared the same fate as the RAH-66 Comanche and ARH-70 Arapaho, the other helicopters expected to replace the OH-58 in the last two decades. Bell 360 Invictus and Sikorsky Raider-X were the two helicopters competing for the FARA contract.

Bell 360 Invictus

Sikorsky Raider-X

I expect that the decision to cancel FARA, which virtually ended the development of rotorcraft, will nevertheless shed light on some recent efforts, such as the use of stealth technologies developed under the previously canceled Comanche project to build the low-visibility (stealth) Black Hawk helicopters used in the 2011 Bin Laden Raid.

The decision to cancel FARA was announced alongside the Army's plans to retire the RQ-7 Shadow and hand-launched RQ-11 Raven UAV squadrons, and to terminate the production of the UH-60V Black Hawk, which was intended to replace the UH-60L helicopter, due to its high cost. To replace the Black Hawk, the US Army has chosen Bell's V-280 Valor, which is planned to reach the 2030s. Thus, I believe that the US Army will use a talent pool consisting of a mixture of main attack helicopters such as the Apache, which it believes to be the best in the world, and space-based platforms and unmanned systems. I expect the Apache, which has a 50-year history, to continue to fly for the next 15-20 years, and to serve as a modern attack helicopter with software updates, especially for the US Army, which in a sense functions like the F-16 Viper. For detailed information and evaluations on the Apache, I recommend you to read the linked article previously published in STRASAM (https://strasam.org/savunma/kara-silah-ve-sistemleri/apache-helikopterlerine-neden-ihtiyac-duyuldu-gecen-yil-bir-kez-ucan-turk-apachesi-10-aydir-neden-ucmuyor-2926)

Ultimately, FARA and related project cancellation decisions require Congressional approval to be finalized. Meanwhile, within the scope of the FARA project, one of the Invictus and Raider X programs was supposed to be selected. However, due to delays in the T901 ITEP engine program developed for these helicopters, the Land Forces had to postpone the choice between Invictus and Raider X. Because there was no engine yet, Bell and Skorsky did not have the opportunity to start flight tests. Despite the FARA cancellation decision, the process is expected to continue until the end of the year to see both helicopters flying with the new engines.

Has the T-929 Atak II Project, which was being carried out by TAI based on its own resources, been canceled?

Before answering this question, I would like to briefly describe the project management mechanism and resource utilization method in the Turkish defense industry.

The vast majority of the projects that the Turkish defense industry is working on are development projects. This is what is expected from the defense industry. A development project is a project that is either initiated from ground zero or involves the modernization and/or modification of an existing product/platform in order to meet the needs of the commands, institutions and organizations under the umbrella of the state, including the Land, Naval and Air Force Commands, the Gendarmerie General Command, the Coast Guard Command, the General Directorate of Security, the General Directorate of Forestry, in short, the users. For example, while the National Fighter Aircraft Kaan, which is being carried out under the prime contractorship of TAI, is a greenfield project, the F-16 Free Project is a large-scale modernization project. 

Government Funded and Company (Self-Funded) Methods Used in Development Projects 

State Financed Method

A development project is initiated with the approval of the competent authority of the state, mainly in line with the requirements and needs of the user, and mostly to meet the needs indicated in the concepts of operation written by the user. Three main elements play a role in the life cycle of a product project initiated in this context. Let us continue with the MMU Kaan example. The elements involved in the MMU Kaan project are as follows: 

User (Air Force Command), 

Supplier (SSB-Department of Defense Industries)

Industrialists (TAI as the prime contractor and ASELSAN-like subcontractors working under it).

The main trigger that brings these three elements together and leads to the start of a project is the decision of the Defense Industry Executive Board (SSİK). The preliminary studies leading up to the SSİK decision are managed under the coordination of the SSB in line with user requirements. Interviews are held with the defense industry companies that are expected to develop the desired product, and after the project is brought to a certain level of maturity, it is placed on the SSİK agenda. The project, which is approved by the SSİK either as a whole or in phases, is implemented under the coordination of the SSB. The main project document used in this context is the Product Development Contract. With the contract, which is framed by the state, it is accepted that the state will also provide the financing for the project. Thus, it is aimed to develop the targeted product in accordance with the contract in line with the principles and requirements of project management, which has its own systematics all over the world in terms of resource, schedule, design, prototype, production, testing, acceptance, etc. phases.

Company (Equity) Financed Method

In this method, a defense industry company or group of companies with the potential to develop a product may initiate a product project based on its own resources, taking into account the developments in the world. These companies, which aim to sell this product primarily to users under the umbrella of the state, aim to develop products by considering the foreign market and potential customers. For example, the Hürjet Jet Trainer Aircraft Development Project, which was launched in 2017, was initially initiated by using TAI's own resources, under the initiative of TAI management. In the meantime, the project was matured through informal discussions with the SSB and the TurAF. When the feasibility of the project became clear, a decision was taken by the SSİK, thus enabling TAI to guarantee the necessary resources for the Hürjet through good risk management, and to ensure that the TurAF officially became a Hürjet user. If TAI had not succeeded in this way, the Hürjet project would probably not have been able to continue. 

In any case, development projects are essentially R&D projects. They are therefore engineering intensive, complex and challenging. Each defence project, especially large projects such as tanks, ships and aircraft, requires a significant amount of government or company resources and a comprehensive project management approach in order to successfully execute and deliver a product on time and to meet user requirements.

Turkish Apache T-929 Atak II Heavy Class Attack Helicopter made its first flight on April 28, 2023

Although the Turkish Land Forces have frequently expressed the need for an Apache-like attack helicopter, to the best of my knowledge, no steps have been taken by the Turkish Armed Forces to initiate the Heavy Class Attack Helicopter Project. Nevertheless, TAI recognized this need and, based on this need, initiated the Heavy Class Attack Helicopter Project (later T-929 Atak II), which was intended to be designed as a platform with Apache-like features and capabilities. Therefore, the T-929 Atak II project was essentially a project financed by TAI's own resources, one of the methods I have described above. I believe that in order for TAI management to take this step, the relevant units within the Land Forces and the SSB took initiatives to encourage TAI. For example, I believe that an unofficial statement from the state channel, such as "you start the project, make some progress, then we will provide the necessary support and ensure that the SSİK decision is taken" was sufficient for TAI. 

The Atak II project was launched on February 17, 2019. TAI had embarked on this project with conviction. As I was working in another unit at TAI during the initial period of the project, I would like to state that I witnessed this faithful and sincere effort of the TAI helicopter group on the spot. Following the completion of the design and structural production activities, the first engine start-up was successfully carried out on April 23, 2023, and the first flight on April 28, 2023. In a previous article, I drew attention to the fact that Atak II has not made any flights since this date. 

T-929 Atak II

Temel Kotil, CEO of TAI: "We will give Atak II to our Land Forces in 2025"

As Burak Erdoğan, engineer in charge of the Atak II integrated product group, stated in a television program, the TAI helicopter engineering team "learned what a helicopter is with the T-129 Atak. With the T-625 Gökbey, it learned how a helicopter is designed. With the T-929 Atak II, they learned how to design and produce helicopters." 

Temel Kotil, the General Manager of TAI, was also a guest on the CNN Türk Desk on May 13, 2023, and spoke highly of the Atak II, along with other platforms. In this program, Kotil made the following statements about Atak II:

"Atak II made a surprise. It flew very stable on its first flight. Videos were also published. The helicopter group is the company's strongest area. We started with the Atak I. We built and delivered 83 units, limited to 350 kg. Atak II is a completely indigenous helicopter. Roketsan is developing missiles that can engage from 20 kilometers. It will be a helicopter on the level of the Apache and Mi-28. It will have air defense systems, just like the Apache. Its electronic warfare capabilities will be highly advanced. There is demand from abroad. Including Pakistan, they saw it, they liked it. It is an armored helicopter. Its glass is also armored. When you make something, it has to catch on in the market. The Atak I has a 20 mm cannon, while we are using a 30 mm cannon in this helicopter. It will carry 1.5 tons of ammunition, which is very different from the Atak I. If the Apache is tendered somewhere in the world, we will also enter the tender. We will be better. It will be cheaper than them. It will be easier to maintain. It will be more indigenous, better in percentage terms... For now, we are using Ukrainian engines (two Sich TV-117VMA-SBM1V Series turboshaft engines (each with 2,500 horsepower)), but work has begun to indigenize the engine to be used in Atak II. Afterwards, the giant brother will be completely domestic and national... We will give these to our Land Forces in 2025, and they will take them into their inventory."

Is the ATAK II Project Cancelled?

In order for a product project of any size to continue, it requires the support of political will, and it is unlikely to be carried out solely on the basis of the manufacturer's own resources. The only exception to this is if a contract is signed for overseas sales, or if there is another company or country as a project partner. However, the general rule in the defense industry is that a defense industry product produced in a country for military purposes must be purchased and used by the armed forces of that country. Products that are not used by the armed forces of the country where the company is located are unlikely to be sold abroad.

In May 2023, on the eve of the elections, the Atak II was flown on the eve of the elections, but as it was understood afterwards, the political will did not lead to the SSİK decision that would pave the way for the financing support TAI was expecting. Or, instead of procuring the T-929 Atak II, which is expected to be a heavy helicopter of Apache caliber, the Turkish Land Forces may have turned its attention to the T-629 Atak Medium Class Attack Helicopter, which is expected to be the attack helicopter version of the T-625 Gökbey. The SSB may have adopted a similar approach to the Land Forces. Ultimately, there may be a need for TAI's management to decide to cancel the T-929 Atak II project, which is not financed by the state, but only by TAI's own resources. The company may have financial problems. 

As if to confirm my assessment, according to what I have heard, the Atak II prototype was simply thrown aside after its flight on April 28. In fact, many parts and systems were removed from the helicopter. The helicopter is currently not flying. For 10 months, the helicopter has not performed any flight activity, and TAI has begun to feel as if the project has been 'halted'. It is understood that TAI GM Kotil's words on CNN Türk screens about 10 months ago, perhaps in the excitement of the elections, "We will give it to our Land Forces in 2025" are probably no longer valid.

I hope I am wrong.

Conclusion

Considering the features of the two-piloted T-929 Atak II, which is calculated to have a maximum take-off weight of 11,500 kg, such as its ability to reach altitudes of up to 20,000 feet, to make 170 knots, to have a wide range of ammunition and a missile range of up to 20 kilometers, I believe that it can contribute to the Land Forces' ability to perform many missions more effectively on the battlefield. 

For this reason, I believe that a final evaluation should be made for the T-929 Atak II, for which 600 million USD has been spent so far, from the money of this nation, from the equity of TAI, a partnership company affiliated with the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation, and which has been developed to date, and whose first flight has taken place on the state level.

As of June 6, 2023, I expect Prof. Dr. Haluk Görgün, who has been serving as the President of the SSB since June 6, 2023, to lead the necessary steps regarding the future of the Atak II project. If the project has indeed been closed or cancelled, I think that the General Manager of TAI and/or the President of the SSB should explain to the public why the project was cancelled, along with the reasons why. After all, Turkey is not rich enough to throw away 600 million dollars. What do you think?

References

Stefano D'urso, "U.S. Army Cancels Future Armed Reconnaissance Aircraft Program", The Aviationist, 9 February 2024, https://theaviationist.com/2024/02/09/u-s-army-cancels-fara-program/

Aybars Meriç, February 13, 2024, https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/content/? fromMember=%5B "ACoAACUm22ABSVLeF1sELnAl-tsSElLmEKrIifc"%5D&heroEntityKey=urn%3Ali%3Afsd_profile%3AACoAACUm22ABSVLeF1sELnAl-tsSElLmEKrIifc&keywords=aybars%20meriç&position=0&searchId=ab46a458- 3166-45e2-b55b-431d236681a6&sid=%3BbQ&sortBy="date_posted"&update=urn%3Ali%3Afs_updateV2%3A(urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7163379096830390273%2CBLENDED_SEARCH_FEED%2CEMPTY%2CDEFAULT%2Cfalse)

Alex Hollings, "WHY DID THE ARMY SCRAP ITS $2.4 BILLION FARA HELICOPTER?", Sandboxx News, February 12, 2024, https://www.sandboxx.us/news/why-did-the-army-scrap-its-24-billion-fara-helicopter/

Hüseyin Fazla, "Why the Need for Apache Helicopters? Why Turkish Apache, which flew once last year, has not flown for 10 months?" STRASAM, February 13, 2024, https://strasam.org/savunma/kara-silah-ve-sistemleri/apache-helikopterlerine-neden-ihtiyac-duyuldu-gecen-yil-bir-kez-ucan-turk-apachesi-10-aydir-neden-ucmuyor-2926