Changing World and Changing Trends of Armies

War, in its simplest definition, is an act of mutual violence between two armed forces. While violence between people was probably carried out by using different organs such as hands, fists and feet in the early periods of its emergence, it started to be carried out by using weapons with the development of the ability to use tools over time. Weapons and equipment, on the other hand, have undergone a continuous transformation according to the level of knowledge of people and developments in technology. 

Since the level of knowledge and technological accumulation was very limited in the earliest periods of history, weapons were also quite simple. Despite their simplicity, the weapons invented in this period were used for a very long time. Weapons such as knives, spears and arrows that people have been using since the earliest times can be given as examples. Although the metals, techniques and models used in these weapons have changed, the weapons themselves have been used for thousands of years without much change.

However, with the emergence of the first firearms, these weapons fell out of use in a very short time compared to the time they were used. Although firearms are still in use, they have shown a very rapid development. Because the rate of development of technology has increased a lot. For this reason, the period of use of flintlock rifles has been incomparably shorter than the period of use of the bow and arrow. This situation, along with other developments in the military field, has led to a major change in warfare styles.

Today, events such as the introduction of the computer, the internet, the development of communication and transport technologies have carried the speed of change to incredible dimensions. As a result, weapon technologies are changing almost on a daily basis, and this situation shortens the effective use of new weapons. This is because, when a weapon is manufactured and put into use, new defence systems and counter-weapons are immediately produced against this weapon.

Thus, new weapons and combat vehicles are constantly being developed or existing systems are used with additional features. This situation also shows its effect in the battles and conflicts that take place. Recent developments in remote-controlled weapons and vehicles are the best examples of this. It is possible to observe this change in the wars and conflicts that took place after the Cold War. 

During the Cold War, conventional armies in the bipolar world order, which was based on the balance of nuclear weapons, were armoured troop-dominated and manoeuvre conceptualised armies. After the Cold War, this structure reached its peak with the concept of land-air battles applied by the Americans in the 1st Gulf War, but this war also gave the first signs of the emergence of innovative weapons. 

The 2nd Gulf War showed that everything had changed. In this war, precision-guided missiles, advanced electronic jamming and communication systems, and intelligent systems, the precursor of artificial intelligence, were widely and effectively used. The doctrine and concept applied in the operation carried out with these new weapons, vehicles and equipment were also quite different from the conventional wars. The concept applied was called Information Warfare. 

However, developments were not limited to this. In the 2nd Iraq War and subsequent operations, precision guided missiles fired from sea and land were diversified with new precision guided missiles fired from aircraft. After a while, unmanned aerial vehicles began to be widely used in "counter-terrorism" operations.

In fact, the use of UAVs and UCAVs can be traced back to the Cold War era, if classic artillery surveillance drones are included. However, the use of UAVs and UCAVs reached a new level with the Syrian civil war. When a number of aircraft, claimed to be Russian but declared by Syria to be Syrian, attacked Turkish troops and martyred over 30 soldiers, the Turkish army used UAVs and UCAVs on a mass scale as an air force. 

Used in coordination with other weapon systems, UAVs and UCAVs carried out reconnaissance, surveillance and intelligence activities, as well as attacking ground targets. The result was spectacular. This led to a new doctrine and concept for UAVs and UCAVs. Using small guided munitions, UCAVs inflicted enormous casualties on the Syrian army's advanced Russian-made air defence systems, tanks, armoured vehicles and personnel. The Syrian army was almost unable to move. 

Moreover, UAVs and UCAVs were much cheaper than aircraft, and since the pilot commanded the vehicle from hundreds of kilometres away, there were no personnel casualties. These results drew the world's attention to this new use of UAVs and UCAVs. The more widespread use of UAVs and UCAVs (and drones, if the information in the press is correct) by the Turkish Armed Forces supporting the legal government in Libya and rendering Haftar's forces virtually immobilised proved once again that this new use is an effective method. 

The last application area was the Karabakh War. The Armenian army lost hundreds of armoured vehicles due to UCAVs. Since kamikaze UCAVs were used effectively in Karabakh in addition to conventional UCAVs, the Armenian army was neutralised in 44 days with relatively few casualties and low cost. In this war, Armenian soldiers could not ride on tanks and armoured vehicles for fear of UCAVs. As a result, a large number of intact and usable tanks and armoured vehicles fell into the hands of the Azerbaijani army.

These developments led many countries to purchase a large number of UAVs/SUAVs from producer countries, especially Turkey. Ukraine was the area where all these developments were put to a new test. The Ukrainian army initially used UCAVs to destroy many Russian armoured vehicles and tanks and destabilise the Russian army. However, as intense forest and residential neighbourhood battles began, new applications were developed. For example, grenades etc. were attached to simple drones and started to be thrown at close range over the positions. This situation caused soldiers to feel insecure even in positions and shelters.

After a while, UAVs and UCAVs were also used against the Russian Navy and were quite successful. When the Russians began to develop countermeasures, remote-controlled naval vehicles began to be used. In fact, naval vehicles such as simple jet skis and speedboats were modified and attacks on Russian naval forces and ports were organised.

These developments showed that remote-controlled and precision-guided weapon systems and vehicles are of vital importance. For this reason, remote-controlled weapon systems have become mandatory for most armies that prioritise the protection of their personnel. This is because they provide unmatched accuracy far superior to manual weapons, require less ammunition to be effective, and allow personnel to operate in a far less stressful environment.

This shows that remotely operated vehicles are effective in every aspect of the battlefield. As such, new weapons need to be developed for defence against these weapons. For this reason, weapon manufacturers and armies all over the world have started research to develop new technologies against remotely controlled vehicles. Naturally, defence weapons and systems are planned to be produced with remote control.

In addition to the land-based systems produced for this purpose, multi-dimensional systems are being developed to include drones. In order to provide versatility and efficiency to these new systems, the integration of many different weapon systems with each other is being emphasised. For example, conventional turrets used for air defence are being fitted with remote command sights. Thus, the turrets can be used both with traditional aiming methods and with remote control.  

However, due to the need to use the systems on lighter tactical platforms, the weight of the remote-controlled weapons produced poses a significant problem. For this reason, lightness and compactness are taken into account in the development of crewless weapons. Another problem is the poor situational awareness of unmanned systems compared to manned systems. To compensate for this, better sensors and optimised human-machine interfaces are being developed. 

On the other hand, efforts are being made to ensure that new systems are interoperable with older systems as well as with the systems of other countries in the alliance. In addition, remote-controlled systems are also being developed with features that reduce the time from the sensor to the shooter and support the decision-making processes of operators and commanders using the system.

As a result, the world is developing at a faster pace than ever before in history. Information and, accordingly, technology are increasing exponentially every day. This situation is reflected in weapon systems and, accordingly, in doctrines and concepts. Thus, a new weapon system or equipment emerges every day. However, due to the acceleration in technology, these new weapon systems become obsolete after being used in a few conflicts. This is because new technologies are being developed against them.

It seems that these developments are pushing the soldier further and further into the background on the battlefield. Its place is being filled by remotely controlled weapon systems, and wars are being fought as a game between remotely controlled weapons. This situation will probably become even more widespread in the future. In fact, as a result of the development of artificial intelligence applications, wars may be fought between armies consisting of weapon systems that can make and execute decisions on their own. 

When wars turn into computer games, the results of wars will be determined by imaginative software developers who write good programmes and engineers who design and manufacture weapons and vehicles, rather than well-trained commanders and well-trained heroic soldiers. As a result, large armies will be replaced by commercial and military companies producing new technologies. Armies will probably consist of very small professional planning staffs. The world seems to have started to prepare accordingly. It is imperative for Turkey to prepare accordingly by creating projections for the future.