Could the South China Sea be the starting point of the Third World War?
All six neighbouring countries have claims to various parts of the sea. Many of these countries also believe that they have some rights over the islets, shoals and reefs in the region. There are two main groups of islets that are the subject of dispute between the parties.
The South China Sea, which is seen as the chessboard of the struggle between the US and China, is actually known as a sea that stands out with its high trade capacity, rich fishing grounds, and huge oil and natural gas reserves.
It is difficult to define the South China Sea in terms of location. The sea extends to the coasts of Vietnam, but it also covers the coasts of China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan. The existence of international areas in this sea, which geographically connects many countries and requires common use, both pushes the countries in the region to compulsory cooperation with each other and invites possible crises between them in the context of regional rights and interests of these countries.
The Strait of Malacca, connected to the South China Sea, constitutes the main maritime passage between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, 805 kilometres long and 40 to 100 kilometres wide. It enables India, Indonesia and China, the three most populous countries in the world, to trade with the rest of the world by sea. It is the longest strait route in the world. It is impossible to consider this strait separately from the South China Sea and the problems arising from this sea in recent years.
All six neighbouring countries have claims to various parts of the sea. Many of these countries also believe that they have some rights over the islets, shoals and reefs in the region. There are two main groups of islets that are the subject of dispute between the parties. The Spratly Islands are the eastern group of islands closest to the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. The Paracel Islands, located to the northwest of these islands, are the group of islands closer to Vietnam, China and Taiwan.
In fact, this was a calm sea. A widespread trade network had been established in this sea where American hegemony prevailed. All countries in the region, including China, were trying to benefit from this commercial environment and increase their foreign trade. This trade-orientated structure did not allow countries to damage the working system with their territorial claims and/or the emergence of possible crises in the region.
On the other hand, the People's Republic of China, which is close to becoming the world's number one economic giant, has been making a visible effort to increase its military power in recent years. Although not in the Pacific, it does not hide its discomfort with American hegemony in the South China Sea. A giant country like China does not want to give consent for the countries in the region, which are allies of the US, to encircle it through the South China Sea, and in this context, for South Korea and Japan to be indirectly a part of this encirclement. For this reason, it sees the South China Sea primarily as its own sphere of dominance and a testing ground for building and testing its hegemonic power.
For this reason, although no regional country has asserted territorial claims in the South China Sea in recent years, China has started to express its claims to 90 per cent of this sea, which is approximately 1.35 million square miles in size, on various platforms. While other countries claim only one corner of this sea, China claims 90 per cent of the sea, unlike most countries in the region. Both economically, politically and militarily, the countries in the region do not have the power to say no to China's territorial/maritime claims on their own. The countries in the region are looking for a branch to hold on to in the face of aggressive Chinese policies, and the US, which wants to maintain its hegemonic presence in the region, naturally comes to their rescue. For the US, which wants to keep China under control, co-operation with these countries is almost a necessity. It is not possible to encircle and control China on its own. Everyone can see that the continuation of the military presence of the USA, which has military bases on the territory of most of these countries, depends on the continuation of regional tensions. Under these circumstances, China, while playing a role that increases regional tensions with its territorial demands, inevitably finds the USA in its face.
Does China Have the Right to Expand its Territorial Waters?
One of the problems regarding the region is that territorial claims in the South China Sea are usually centred on landmasses. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea gives signatory states the right to claim their own territorial waters up to 12 nautical miles from their own land masses and to declare an exclusive economic zone up to 200 miles from land. However, there are no truly large islands in the South China Sea. Most of the territories referred to as islands are best characterised as atolls, islets and shallows. Some of these islands and islets even submerge significant portions of themselves for a certain period of time during high tides. The use of islands and islets with such variable and small structures as a reference for expanding the territory of a country according to international law is generally not accepted.
Being aware of this situation, China is putting its efforts to gain territory in its favour into action. As a matter of fact, by mobilising various dredging vessels since the early 2010s, it has been trying to transform these islands and islets into islands with larger territories by moving the underwater lands around them. Places such as Mischief Reef (legally a tidal height), Fiery Cross Reef (legally a rock) and Woody Island (legally a rock/island), which were built using the nearby seabed, were seen as constructions that attracted the attention of the whole world in this respect. Beijing, which built the islands and later also constructed buildings on them, calls these efforts scientific research centres and outposts. China's efforts to enlarge and expand the islands and islets in the South China Sea are closely monitored by the countries in the region. As a matter of fact, in 2016, with Taiwan's announcement that the Chinese outpost on Woody Island was armed with surface-to-air missiles, it was registered for the first time that some islands in the region were armed by China in violation of the agreements.
In 2016, an international law court in The Hague, the Netherlands, ruled that China's vast territorial claims in the South China Sea have no basis in international law and are invalid. China merely condemned this judgement, which did not include any legal sanctions.
Meanwhile, the United States, Australia and Canada, as well as some other foreign military powers, continue to maintain their naval and air presence in the international waters and airspace over the South China Sea. The principle of freedom of navigation in international waters is the main justification on which the countries outside the region base their flight operations and naval transits. At the same time, the military means of these countries want to maintain their presence in the region against the development of an attitude that prevents the rights of their countries to use the international waters of the South China Sea. From time to time, China's response to these ships and aircraft can be remarkable enough to be described as 'harassment'.
Are War Drums Sounding in the South China Sea?
In recent years, the Chinese military continues to grow at an unprecedented rate. So much so that the Chinese Navy has reached a naval power on a larger scale than the US Navy in terms of the number of ships. The Chinese Armed Forces are larger and more powerful than the military forces of all other regional countries claiming rights in the South China Sea combined. None of these countries alone, or even collectively, have the military capacity to challenge China's expansion and/or regional hegemony in the region. This situation pushes the countries of the region to seek alliances.
In recent years, countries in the region that have expectations/claims in the South China Sea to the detriment of China have found it necessary to be part of a loose coalition of countries including the US, Australia, Canada and the UK, as well as Japan and India. The countries in the region want the international order based on the existing rules to continue for the continuation of their economic and political interests. They expect China to abide by the international court's judgements against China.
Undoubtedly, another expectation is that if China pushes its neighbours too far, countries such as Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan, India, South Korea, especially the US, will become parties in their favour in the settlement of disputes in the South China Sea. This situation invites a major regional conflict with the potential to involve the US and others. It is even leading some to speculate that the fuse is being lit for what some might call a Third World War.
China claims that a coalition of foreign countries is conspiring to encircle and isolate China, and expresses its discomfort that countries in the region are developing alliance relations with the Western world. China does not hide its discomfort with the post-1945 US-centred balance in the Pacific, in particular in the South China Sea. It considers it necessary for the US hegemony to come to an end sooner or later. No one accepts the regional hegemony-building policy of China, which has no sovereignty over the islands and islets under its nose. Is the problem with China, which has grown stronger in the last 35 years and wants to use this power to protect its own rights and interests, or is the problem with the US, which has been driving a stake in the region for the last 80 years by allying with China's neighbours, trying to restrain China's expansion policy in order not to leave the region?
China is getting stronger and wants to expand. The US, the only power that can stop this, faces the risk of narrowing the world seas as China expands. I think that everything in this region seems to be related to the extent to which the US is willing to this contraction.
