Is Kharkiv, Ukraine's Second Largest City, Falling to the Russians?

As the spring of 2024 comes to an end, the Russian-Ukrainian War that started on 24 February 2022 does not seem to end yet. From the moment the Russians retreated east of the Dnieper River, they had condemned Ukraine to a frontal war. At this time last year, the Western world was speculating that the Ukrainian Army's counter-attacks would break through the Russian Army front and even expel the Russians from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and then Crimea would be next. More precisely, such an expectation was being pumped. While this expectation did not materialise, the balances on the front remained largely unchanged. Although the Russian capture of two relatively small towns such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka was recorded as a success for Moscow, it did not mean a major change in the map, and the Russian gains were recorded as positional successes. Perhaps encouraged by these gains, it was rumoured that the Russian Army might launch a counter-offensive to defeat the Ukrainian Army as of the beginning of this year. As a matter of fact, we have started to see signs of this these days.

A series of attacks in March destroyed the main power plants in Kharkiv, while widespread disturbances forced power cuts. As of mid-April, the frontline began to mobilise again. Media pictures of Kharkiv show traces of Russian bombardment everywhere. The ongoing aerial bombardment has left the city littered with ruined buildings. Before the war it was a Ukrainian city with many universities and a strong industrial complex. Now it has become a symbol of the human suffering caused by the Russian occupation, with one side trying to defend and the other trying to capture it. 

Describing the intensity of the Russian bombardment and the destruction it has wreaked on the city, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov warned that the city was now at risk of becoming a ‘second Aleppo’, a grim reference to the Syrian city that was partially destroyed almost a decade ago after heavy bombardment by Russian and Syrian government forces.

I don't know if there will be a second Aleppo, but life in Kharkiv must be getting worse and worse for the civilian population. Because the Russians are not stopping. Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is now the Kremlin's number one target and Russian forces are slowly advancing to take Kharkiv. Already since the beginning of 2024, Kharkiv has been subjected to occasional ‘harassment’ bombardments by the Russians, forcing the civilian population to leave Kharkiv in order to survive in difficult conditions. Taking advantage of the weakness of Ukraine, which apparently does not even have enough air defence ammunition to protect this city of about 1.3 million inhabitants because Western aid has been delayed and its own defence resources are insufficient, Russia has made Kharkiv the main focus of its aerial bombardments. 

The Kremlin's aim may be to make Kharkiv ‘uninhabitable’ and force the emigration of a large part of its 1.3 million inhabitants. In a way, Kharkiv is similar to the Israeli army's attrition offensive in the Gaza Strip since 30 October 2023. I think that Moscow may be calculating that the depopulation of the city will demoralise the Ukrainian people and Kiev, making it easier for the city to be captured by Russian forces during its offensive, which it intends to intensify in the coming months. 

The Russian attacks seem to be a calculated campaign to render the entire city uninhabitable. The bombardments are targeting residential areas and critical civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Putin's army is not only using missiles and drones to dehumanise Kharkiv. By skilfully using psychological operations and disinformation, it is trying to instil fear in Kharkiv residents and force them to leave the city. I have observed Kremlin accounts on social media spreading disinformation that the Ukrainian government is urgently calling on the population to leave Kharkiv in order to avoid the impending Russian siege. In addition to social media attacks, the Russians have hit and destroyed Kharkiv's iconic television tower, a symbol of the city and an important element of the local communications infrastructure. It can be said that such attacks not only demoralise the population but also increase the psychological pressure on them. 

Kharkiv is about half an hour by car from the Russian border. It is written and drawn in the Russian press that Kharkiv has an ‘important role’ in Putin's plans to create a demilitarised ‘liberated zone’ inside Ukraine. In the spring of 2022, the Russians attempted to seize the city, which resulted in heavy fighting around Kharkiv and its eventual fall. However, Ukraine managed to liberate most of Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022. Russian troops were expelled from the city. Thus, Kharkiv, whose conditions improved, albeit partially, was flooded by the majority of the population from the neighbouring settlements affected by the war. The city's population grew from 300,000 to over one million.

Conclusion

Russia is preparing a serious offensive to capture or encircle Kharkiv in the coming months. The Kharkiv operation may bring a new dynamism to the war, which has been stagnating for two years. However, the Ukrainian army continues its preparations for the defence of the country's second city. Moreover, despite all its wear and tear, it is not an easy task to capture such a large city with military force and to uproot a large population from Kharkiv without causing any major civilian casualties. If the Ukrainians, who have nowhere else to go but Kharkiv, cling to this last branch, the Russian forces will suffer heavy losses on the streets of Kharkiv. 

I have seen reports that the Russians currently have only 50,000 troops to bring into the battle, and it is certainly impossible for the Russians to capture Kharkiv with such a number of troops. However, the Kremlin must have a plan to increase the number of troops. As Putin stated in his 9 May speech, it is obvious that they will not open a new front without calculation. On the other hand, when we consider the difficulties Russia faced in capturing much smaller cities such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka, I believe that it may not be possible for the Russians to capture Kharkiv. Especially if the Western world, which is in a race to deliver air defence systems to Ukraine these days, continues to support Kiev, I think that the possibility of increasing the air defence of Kharkiv, which is the focal point of the Russian Army, will increase and the city's defence against aerial bombardments will become easier. 

References

Maria Avdeeva. ‘Ukraine's second city is struggling to survive amid relentless Russian bombing’. Atlantic Council. 7 May 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-second-city-is-struggling-to-survive-amid-relentless-russian-bombing/

Maria Avdeeva. ‘Bombs and disinformation: Russia's campaign to depopulate Kharkiv’. Atlantic Council. 29 April 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/bombs-and-disinformation-russias-campaign-to-depopulate-kharkiv/

Paul Fekula. ‘What is happening in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast?’. 13 May 2024. https://www.quora.com/What-is-happening-in-Kharkiv-and-Chuhuiv-districts-of-Kharkiv-Oblast/answer/Paul-Fekula?ch=3&oid=1477743766512423&share=b2e2d640&srid=usBSds&target_type=answer