Is Only Air-Special Operations in Syria Sufficient for Turkey?

Turkey's Struggle against Terrorism is Legitimate

With Operation Euphrates Shield, the first operation that Ankara started to carry out since August 24, 2016 to eliminate PKK elements in Syria, which have been carrying out attacks on Turkish territory by terrorists originating from Syria, Ankara continues to show that it will not hesitate to carry out military operations in Syrian territory when appropriate conditions arise.

Within the framework of international rights and obligations and the legitimacy granted to it by international law to use force, Turkey has aimed to prevent the formation of a corridor under the control of the YPG/PKK terrorist organization along its southern border. The October 20, 1998 Adana Memorandum signed between Turkey and Syria allows Turkey to intervene against the PKK and its affiliates. A similar legitimacy derives from Article 51 of the UN Charter, which the US has used to legitimize its presence in Syria.

Operation Euphrates Shield

On August 24, 2016, Operation Euphrates Shield, which was launched with the extensive participation of the Turkish Armed Forces' air and ground forces, played a critical role in minimizing some of the negative consequences of the Syrian Civil War. The operation has made significant gains for Turkey in preventing the PKK's Syrian branch, the PYD, and its military wing, the YPG, from creating a "terror corridor" in the region. 

It is important for Turkey to stop this organization despite the fact that its NATO ally, the United States, which does not need to hide the fact that it is an ally of the Syrian PKK and therefore no longer trusts it, supports the PKK with all kinds of weapons and ammunition. Undoubtedly, Turkey is not a state that would allow the PKK to pose a permanent threat along its southern borders. On the other hand, the elimination of the terrorist organization is important not only for Turkey's national security, but also for the long-term security interests of the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. In this sense, the Euphrates Shield Operation, acting within the framework of its own strategic autonomy despite the US and Russia, has shattered the PKK terror corridor that was being formed. With this operation, Ankara has demonstrated its ability to make an important breakthrough and exercise initiative.

Operation Olive Branch

In this context, Operation Olive Branch was carried out between January 20 and March 2018. With this operation, an important region west of the Euphrates, including the city of Afrin, came under the control of anti-regime groups supported by Turkey in Syria. 

Considered strategically important by the PKK, Afrin was one of its strongholds in the region. The capture of Afrin provided Ankara with an opportunity to gain the upper hand against the PKK inside Syria and demonstrate its determination to eliminate any threat to its national security. Prior to this operation, Erdoğan had said that Manbij was the target, but for various reasons Manbij could not be taken. Even so, Olive Branch was a successful operation and a significant blow was dealt to the Syrian PKK.

Operation Peace Spring

Having largely achieved its objectives in the area between Hatay and Kilis, Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring on October 9, 2019 in a large area further east, between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn. At the beginning of the operation, the Turkish Armed Forces announced that it aimed to take control of the area between the towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn. In the following stages, the goal of establishing a safe zone of 480 km in length and 30 km in depth in line with the operation area and its adjacent areas came to the fore. The objectives of this operation are;

- To prevent the formation of a terrorist corridor in northern Syria. To ensure that terrorist elements leave the region. At the same time, to create a safe zone along the southern border where Arab, Turkmen and Kurdish civilians can live in peace, and to clear PKK-controlled cities of terrorists.

- Preventing global and regional actors (Russia and the US) from threatening Turkey's national interests and demonstrating that Turkey will not hesitate to resort to military options. 

- To create a safe zone inside Syria for the return of Syrian asylum seekers/refugees in Turkey. Destroy the legitimate grounds for the opposition to criticize the Ankara government's protective attitude towards Syrian refugees in Turkey. Prevent further polarization of the Turkish public over Syrian refugees.

Reaction to Operation Peace Spring

As the operation continued, first the United States and then the Russian Federation reacted to Ankara almost in unison and in the same way, as if to show that they were acting in coordination with each other. 

On October 17, US Vice President Mike Pence arrived in Turkey. As a result of the talks, the US side promised that the Syrian PKK, which they defined as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), would be kept away from actions that would harm Turkey. 

The Sochi agreement was signed with the Russians on October 23rd. Within the framework of the sixth article of this agreement, Russia pledged that PKK members would not be allowed to shelter in Manbij and Tel Rifaat. It was also mutually agreed to remove PKK elements from the 444 km wide and 30 km deep area outside the Peace Spring zone and to turn it into a safe zone.

Operation Spring Shield

Turkey felt the need to establish a similar control in Idlib and its environs as it had achieved in and around Afrin with Operation Olive Branch. As a result of Operation Spring Shield, which was launched on February 27, 2020 to reduce tensions in this region, Turkish Armed Forces elements captured the identified targets in a short time and the operation was completed.

Possible Fifth Operation

Turkey has not been able to establish a secure corridor in Syria, where it has conducted four military operations so far. In particular, the aim is to clear Tal Rifaat, Manbij, Ayn al-Arab and Ain Issa from the PKK, thus making these areas safe and eventually establishing a 30-kilometer-deep safe corridor in northern Syria. 

Already, attacks on Turkish soldiers and the Syrian National Army (SNA) from PKK-controlled towns are causing discomfort in Ankara. The use of Tel Rifaat and Manbij as bases for launching missiles into Turkish territory has led to a Turkish focus on these two settlements. During the Peace Spring, Russia promised to remove the YPG from Tal Rifaat, while the US promised to remove the terrorist organization from Manbij. However, both countries failed to fulfill their promises. These unfulfilled promises justify Turkey's intervention to expel the group from towns near its borders.

Moreover, the presence of Syrian refugees has become an issue in domestic politics. The government aims to create favorable conditions on Syrian soil and resettle as many Syrian refugees as possible in these secure areas on Syrian soil in order to avoid further escalation among the Turkish population. 

According to some media groups close to the government, the current conjuncture in world politics in May 2022 offered a favorable opportunity for Turkey to launch an operation in Syria. Russia was bogged down in Ukraine. It had to withdraw a large number of forces from Syria to the Ukrainian front. The threat of terrorism and the growing migration problem, combined with the international community's reluctance to find a solution, left Turkey with no choice but to intervene in northern Syria, a view that dominated the mainstream media.

Despite these views, Ankara did not get the green light for the operation it had been waiting for. On May 23, 2022, President Erdoğan said "we can come suddenly one night", but his words remained in the air. Developments such as the US promises on Manbij, its support for the PKK and its insistence on its pro-Greek policy against Turkey, and Sweden and Finland's application for NATO membership pushed Ankara to slow down a possible operation in Syria.

Meanwhile, Turkey has been conducting Operation Claw-Lock in northern Iraq since April 18, 2022. If Ankara can take control of the 30 km. deep area in the Zap region in Iraq in the near future, it will have achieved its goal of creating a 30 km. deep safe corridor in the whole of Iraq. Turkey, which is well aware of the benefits of a safe corridor in its fight against terrorism, aims to do the same in Syria as soon as possible, leaving no empty territory in Iraq and Syria and keeping the PKK under control as much as possible. 

Turkey Continues to Conduct Air-Special Operations Against the PKK in Syria

After failing to receive the necessary support from the US and Russia at the beginning of June this year, Ankara seems to have postponed the ground operation for the time being. However, the unnamed coordinated "Air-Special Operation", which consists of air strikes, ground artillery strikes, MIT operations, etc., continues uninterruptedly against terrorist elements in northern Syria. The fact that the firepower is carried out from a distance, but with precision ammunition firing, ensures successful results. As a matter of fact, it is known that approximately 2,000 terrorists were neutralized as a result of such operations between January and July 2022. 

Moreover, MİT primarily uses armed drones to kill senior PKK/YPG leaders. MIT's operational capabilities were strengthened a decade ago with the establishment of a special unit for such operations. Leading members of the PKK can be neutralized using MİT's armed drones, whose locations are often based on intelligence information provided by informants within the terrorist organization. In addition, by eliminating the terrorist group's leaders, the PKK is able to cause administrative weakness in both Syria and Iraq. 

According to estimates, MİT has neutralized 83 senior PKK officials in the last seven months. Among them was Salwa Yusuk, one of the leading leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the perpetrator of the 2008 Istanbul bombings, known as the Güngören attack, which killed 18 civilians in Istanbul. The fact that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Twitter account was able to publish a message of condolence upon the death of this person clearly showed the Turkish public opinion where the American side fits into the picture.

This new type of "indirect operation" is important as it shows that Turkey will fight decisively against terrorist nests in Syria. Ankara continues to demonstrate its determination to eliminate the PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the YPG. Since the operations use Turkish-made UCAVs, support systems and Turkish-made ammunition, sanctions by Western countries are out of the question. If the Turkish military and intelligence services had purchased the weapons used in these operations from another country, such as the United States, they would most likely not be able to carry out such missions, as foreigners sell their weapons under certain conditions.

Conclusion

As a result of these operations in the summer months, Turkey has gained the upper hand against the US, which says it supports the PKK because it is fighting ISIS. Despite the US support, the PKK is losing power and effectiveness in Syria. 

Moreover, in recent days, there have been reports in the international press that informal talks between Ankara and Damascus are continuing. There is even talk that an Erdogan-Esat meeting may take place in September. Erdoğan's pragmatism has come back into play, albeit belatedly. Ankara has almost removed its objections to the continuation of Syria with the current regime. This means that the PKK, squeezed by Turkey, will fall into Damascus' clutches. If Ankara and Damascus can take their cooperation further, the Syrian branch of the PKK could be neutralized, despite American support. The restoration of Syria's unity is now the focus of the Astana process between Turkey, Iran and Russia, with Turkey's explicit support. The US support for the PKK under the pretext of ISIS is about to come to an end. The region is returning to its own dynamics, and it must!