Israel's New Target Lebanon

It seems to me, dear readers, that the brutal murders of Israel, supported by the United States, which is the number one supplier of the Genocidal War in Gaza and acts as a shield against the whole world in its reprisals against Israel, have become commonplace. More than that, the world public opinion is in a paralysed state where Israel gets away with what it does. On 7 October 2023, in response to the ‘Aqsa Flood (Amaliyyat Tufan al-Aqsa)’ launched by Hamas against Israel, Israel launched the ‘Iron Swords’ operation almost at the same time as a counter-reflex. Its name has been forgotten, not even its name is pronounced anymore. The Palestinian people had been expecting such an attack for a long time. HAMAS explained the real cause of the war as the attacks on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which never stopped, and named the operation as the Al-Aqsa Flood. So what should have been done? It tried to throw the first punch itself by using strategic cover and deception. And so he did. 
In the first phase, 5,000 rockets and mortar shells were fired by the Izz ad-Din Kassam Brigades. In other words, since HAMAS was expecting such an attack, it was able to take a small lead in the attack in accordance with the famous US doctrine of ‘Preemptive Strike’. The ‘Operation Iron Swords’ launched by Israel against the Aqsa Flood launched by HAMAS, with unlimited use of force, let alone the use of ‘Unproportional Force’, was concentrated not only against Gaza and the West Bank, but also on Hezbollah positions. Israel went even further and launched similar counter-attacks on Syria. Although in the military literature, the operation against Lebanon can be labelled as ‘Operation Isolation’ to prevent Hezbollah's intervention in the region, it can be said at first glance that this operation was just as effective. This is due to the fact that the extent of its impact is that much greater. 
According to the ‘Armed Conflict Location and Incident Data Project’, in the seven months since 8 October, Israel has carried out approximately 4,900 attacks in Lebanon, while Hezbollah has launched 1,100 attacks on Israeli positions. (1) In the clashes between the Israeli Army and Hezbollah on the border line since 8 October 2023, it was announced that in addition to 300 Hezbollah members, 61 Lebanese civilians, 19 Amal Movement, 13 Hamas, 15 Islamic Jihad members, 14 Israeli soldiers and 10 Israeli civilians were killed. (2) 
When Israel's casualties in Lebanon are evaluated as a whole, it is clear that Hezbollah is in a unity with the Amal organisation supported by Syria, HAMAS and Islamic Jihad organisations, and that this unity has been achieved by Iran. The most distinctive feature of this unity is that it is capable of transferring the war to Israeli territory. Can you imagine now, can Hezbollah bring 50 thousand experienced fighters who have seen blood into Israel? And what will happen if it does? Can you imagine that Hezbollah's long-range guided missiles will be far more effective on Israel than HAMAS missiles? How long will it be possible to keep the Israeli people held at gunpoint on the Israeli mainland after these attacks? Can Hezbollah do all this? Yes, today's Hezbollah is capable of doing this, let no one have any doubts. 
After these evaluations, the question to be asked is this: Can Israel open a new front in Lebanon with Gaza? In other words, can it continue the war on two fronts? The answer to this question is probably no? Why? Because Israel cannot afford a larger front in the north while the war in Gaza continues uninterruptedly. If it could afford it, who would stop Israel? It would have embarked on such an operation without listening to anyone. Remember, in October 2023, Prime Minister Netenyahu, the defence minister and other members of the war cabinet went to the Lebanese border, they discussed it a lot, but they could not carry out such an operation... 
Of course, it is also necessary to look at the necessity of the concept of ‘internal line manoeuvre’ as a military conceptual framework. This concept shows what should be done when faced with multiple attacks, just like in the War of Independence. ‘When faced with multiple enemies or attacks in a war, this concept is to take a strategic decision and eliminate the smallest of the attack or enemy and keep them under control without engaging the big ones. While eliminating the smallest ones, the tools, equipment and weapons of war are tested on them recklessly. Among the small ones, it means to first turn to whichever enemy force is the largest and neutralise it. This is why small and small organisations leave the battlefield while medium-sized organisations are targeted.’
Indeed, in the ‘Turkish National Struggle’, first the rebellions against the ‘Kuva-yı Milliye’ were suppressed, simultaneously Armenia was dealt with in the east, and then the unorganised warfare phase was switched to the regular army phase and Greece, which attempted to occupy Western Anatolia as the Sword of the United Kingdom, was attacked with all its might. What Israel is doing today is no different from this. 
If we pay attention, the challenge of two ISIS-headed ministers of Israel against both Hezbollah and the Damascus regime shows a planned opening. Another meaning of this is to gain the necessary time for preparation. Let us recall that Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of the ISIS-orientated members of the Israeli government, continued his high-pitched salvos from Kiryat Shimon following the fires caused by Hezbollah rockets fired into the Upper Galilee, which caused fires in settlements such as Kiryat Shimon: 
‘We must burn and destroy all Hezbollah strongholds. War!’ 
His twin, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, also said that the army should invade Lebanon, remove hundreds of thousands of Lebanese from the border and establish a buffer zone. (1) The Blue Line Regime in their minds is to create a buffer zone inside the Lebanese borders, a belt at least 32 km (20 miles) deep. 
Well, now, after all this, let us come to the golden question. Can Israel close Gaza and move north? I think this is the question that needs to be answered. President Joe Biden is aware of this, and this is why, when he proposed a three-stage ceasefire for Gaza on 31 May 2024, he mentioned Lebanon and the importance of normalising the situation in the north of Israel for the first time. From the very beginning, Hezbollah has responded to such statements from the United States as follows: ‘First stop Israel, end the war in Gaza, and then we will talk about the Blue Line.’ (1)
In order to protect Israel, the US is trying to carry out all kinds of negotiations and proposals behind closed doors with both HAMAS and Hezbollah. It is for these reasons that the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William J. Burns, has been travelling back and forth between Cairo and Doha with shuttle diplomacy and that the Secretary of State has visited the Middle East for the seventh time. The point to be stated in capital letters is this. Hezbollah cannot be stopped, Hezbollah cannot be suppressed and Hezbollah cannot be suppressed until Israel ends its ‘Operation Iron Swords’ in Gaza. Since the Israeli General Staff knows and understands that they cannot stop Hezbollah, they have made it a priority to keep Hezbollah within the rules of engagement shaped by the UN since 2006.  Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi's statement ‘We are approaching the point where a decision has to be made, the army is ready to go on the offensive’ is a necessity for the army to act cautiously. It is known that Hezbollah is the winner of the 2006 war, even if it was a Pyrrhic victory, and Hezbollah has not implemented the Blue Line Regime for 18 years, nor have they withdrawn north of the Litani River.  Israel's goal is to make Hezbollah return to the UN-controlled Blue Line regime, i.e. to withdraw north of the Litani River, after it has dealt with Gaza. Another meaning of this is to ensure that the Israeli occupiers (settlers (?)) can return to the north, which they abandoned. More precisely, 200,000 Israeli settlers in the Upper and Lower Galilee and 100,000 on the Lebanese side were forced to leave their homes. The Lebanese have paid a higher price, but for the first time Hezbollah is inflicting on Israel a hell similar to the one they have been accustomed to for decades. (1) 
As a result, Israel's biggest fear is the transfer of the land war to Israel by opening a front. In other words, moving the land war to Israel is a nightmare scenario for Israel. What shall we say, ‘If Aleppo is there, the scales are here’ or ‘If the account is there, the scales are here.’ We will wait and see, dear readers. 

Footnotes

(1) Fehim Taştekin, ‘Why is the Lebanese front making the US nervous?’, Gazete Duvar, 06.06.2024; https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/lubnan-cephesi-abdyi-neden-kasiyor-makale-1696629/ Access Date 07.06.2024/
(2) Zein Khalil, Mehmet Nuri Uçar, ‘Israeli Minister threatened to invade South Lebanon if Hezbollah does not stop its attacks’, Anadolu Agency, 19.05.2024; https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/israilli-bakan-hizbullahin-saldirilarini-durdurmamasi-halinde-guney-lubnani-isgal-etmekle-tehdit-etti/3223852 / Access Date 07.06.2024/