Military Developments in the Russia-Ukraine War from the Beginning to the Present

The Russian-Ukrainian War has gone through five phases since its beginning. These phases include the crisis period, the Russian general offensive, the narrowing of the front, Russia's transition to defense and the Ukrainian general offensive.

Phase One Crisis Period

Ukraine became independent in 1991. Following its independence, Ukraine had problems with Russia over the sharing of the Soviet navy in the Black Sea, Crimea and nuclear weapons. These problems stemmed from Russia's inability to digest the separation of Ukraine and especially Crimea from Russia.

Realizing this, Ukraine approached the West in order to guarantee its security and existence against Russian pressure, and the country became a battleground between the West and Russia. As Russia tried to create a pro-Russian government and the West tried to bring pro-Russian rulers to power, Ukraine became a country of color revolutions. Therefore, it could not stabilize for a long time.

After the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych was elected president in 2010, the developments that would spark today's war emerged. The beginning of these developments was Yanukovych's refusal to sign the EU association agreement in 2013, also motivated by his desire to avoid the Russian embargo.

Following this decision, large protests were organized and Yanukovych, who was dismissed by the parliament, had to flee to Moscow in February 2014. Following these developments, Russia invaded Crimea in March. People of Russian origin living in the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk declared their independence in May.

Ukraine tried to suppress this independence movement but failed in its military operations against the separatists, who were de facto supported by Russia, in 2014 and 15. The Paris and Belarus talks were held twice between 2014 and 2019 to resolve the conflict, but the ceasefire agreements were not permanent.

During this period, Russia was alarmed by Ukraine's increasing efforts to join NATO and the EU. The August 2020 Belarusian elections and Western pressure on the current government further increased Russia's concerns. Meanwhile, Ukraine's rhetoric that it would retake Donbas and Crimea increased, and voluntary units of Ukrainian nationalists under the name of Uzov Battalions in the Donbas region became quite strong. In response to these developments, Russia started to build up its forces in Belarus, Crimea and the Donbas region.

On the other hand, Russia made the following demands from NATO:

a. Prevention of NATO's expansion 

b. halt the deployment of weapons near the Russian border 

c. Ukraine's exclusion from NATO

NATO responded negatively to these requests. 

In response, Russia has continued to escalate tensions, and the objectives of its escalation strategy are as follows:

a. The Kiev regime to give up joining NATO and become a neutral state

b. Ukraine recognizes Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territory

c. Recognition of the independence of the Donbas region

Phase Two Russian General Offensive (February 24, 2022)

Unable to achieve these objectives with its escalation strategy, Russia launched an offensive into Ukrainian territory from four main directions on February 24, 2022. Putin announced the Russian offensive as a special operation, not a war. He defined Russia's goal as the disarmament and de-Nazification of Ukraine.

However, the Russian offensive, which continued until March 29, was not successful. On the contrary, the Russian army lost a very high percentage of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, helicopters and other military vehicles, weapons and equipment. Personnel casualties were also very high. The talks between the parties held in Belarus and Turkey during this period did not yield any results to end the war.  

Phase Three: Narrowing of the Front  

Russia then decided to halt military activities in the Kiev and Chernihiv axis. The Russian army started shifting the forces it withdrew from this region to the south and completed its deployment to a great extent by April 6. It also brought troops from different parts of the country to the region.

Having completed its deployment and preparations, the Russian army launched a new offensive along a 300-mile front in Donbas on April 18, 2022. The goal of the offensive was to take Southern Ukraine in order to establish a land connection with Transnistria. The Russian army managed to make some progress along the entire front and announced the capture of Mariupol on April 21. However, its advance in other areas soon stalled.

In response, Ukraine launched a large-scale counteroffensive against Kharkov on April 30. This offensive was successful and by May 4 most of the Russian artillery had been pushed back to the point where it could no longer hit Kharkov. On May 6, a new counteroffensive was launched "along a wide arc" near Kharkov. This offensive was also successful and the Russian army, unable to hold on, decided to withdraw from Kharkov on May 13. The Ukrainian army then reached the border near Kharkov on May 15.

On August 29, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in several directions, this time in the south, including the Kherson region. On August 30, Ukrainian forces broke through the first Russian defense line in Kherson and continued to advance successfully. Encouraged by this, the Ukrainian President promised to retake Crimea in a statement on August 31. On the same day, Ukraine broke through the front at 3 points and captured some areas in the direction of Kherson on September 5. 

In early September, Ukraine launched a new counteroffensive, retaking several settlements in the Kharkov region. This offensive was also successful and Russian troops began to retreat. Continuing the offensive, Ukrainian troops crossed the Luhansk border and managed to completely retake Kharkov from the Russians. These Ukrainian successes around Kharkov changed the fate of the war. 

Following the developments, Russia announced that a referendum would be held in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. Putin also declared mobilization in the country. However, when the Russian army announced that 300 thousand reserve soldiers would be mobilized, young people who did not want to participate in the war started to flee Russia. 

Encouraged by its successes and growing self-confidence, Ukraine launched an attack on the Kerch Bridge in Crimea on October 8. Russia responded by striking infrastructure facilities in Ukrainian cities. This provoked a reaction in Europe. In response, the US and EU countries increased arms aid to Ukraine. 

Phase Four: Russia's Defensive Posture

Meanwhile, the situation at the front for Russia was deteriorating. For example, Russian troops in the Kherson region were unable to hold out against the Ukrainian offensive. On November 9, Russia announced that its troops would abandon Kherson and withdraw east of the Dnieper River.

The reasons for the failure of the Russian army in this period are considered to be the following:

a. The lack of coordination within the command echelons of Russia's regular army became a major problem. 

b. Because four different units were operating on the front line and the units did not receive orders from each other, the influence of the command echelon was diminishing. 

c. Chechen units were fighting under the control of their own commanders.

ç. Wagner mercenaries did not take orders from the regular army.

d. Donetsk and Lugansk volunteers were under the command of their own commanders.

e. As the command structure of the regular army units could not coordinate with other units, commanders who had achieved significant successes in Syria and similar regions and had power in the military bureaucracy were dismissed. 

f. Frequent dismissals led to rivalries among commanders and lack of initiative.

g. The joint action of Wagner troops and Chechen forces in resisting the regular army resulted in the dismissal of many commanders.

h. Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrov and the Wagner commanders succeeded in getting the commanders of their choice to serve in Ukraine. 

Phase Five General Offensive in Ukraine

When the Russian offensives stopped and the Russian troops began to retreat (in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks), a new phase of the war began. The retreating Russian troops began to prepare defensive positions along the front. Since it was winter, the fighting subsided. 

Deciding to launch a general offensive operation in the spring, Ukraine received heavy weapons, tanks and armored vehicles from the West and trained the personnel who would use them during the winter. On the other hand, rocket and artillery weapons purchased from the West were used to attack Russian positions with fire during the winter. 

The Russian army, on the other hand, formed a three-tier defense line according to the classical Russian defense doctrine. Mines and obstacles were laid on the front line from the front, and between the defense lines were reinforced with obstacles and mines. 

The defense lines were prepared as follows:

a. From beyond the line of contact, mines and various obstacles were laid, especially on roads and passages.

b. After these obstacles, wide and deep tank trenches were dug beyond the first line of defense.

c. 250 meters behind this trench, triangular prism concrete tank obstacles were placed.

ç. A defensive line trench with bunkers was dug 300 meters behind the obstacle.

d. Support weapons were placed behind the defense line.

e. A second line of defense was prepared behind these guns and a third line of defense was prepared behind them.

f. In some areas, due to the terrain, a second or third line was constructed, and in areas close to each other, resistance points protected by ditches and obstacles were built.

Changes were also made in some commands as a remedy to the command and command weaknesses at the front. In this context, in January 2023, the Russian Chief of General Staff was appointed as the front commander.

Having procured a large amount of heavy weapons, Ukraine, relying on this new weaponry and equipment, set its goal as reaching Azov and retaking Crimea. Continuing its preparations, the Ukrainian army was trained on powerful tanks such as Abrams and Leopard and air defense systems such as Patriot, which were sent as aid from Western countries. After a long period of preparation, the Ukrainian army offensive began on June 5, 2023.

Advancing in some areas, albeit slowly at first, the Ukrainian army did not achieve the expected success. However, on July 15, it approached Bakhmut and Japorizya. However, in the face of Russian resistance, the offensives in these regions stopped in a short time, just like on the whole front. However, the price of this success was quite costly for the Russians.

In Bahmut, where the fighting was most intense, Wagner's troops suffered heavy casualties. The Wagner mercenary company, which suffered a loss of morale and motivation in the face of these casualties, rebelled on June 23, claiming that they did not receive sufficient ammunition and fire support. Wagner, who reached 200 kilometers to Moscow in 24 hours, was persuaded after negotiations and returned to the front.

During this period, Bahmut gained psychological importance. The Ukrainian president also visited the troops in this region. However, the recovering Russian army, after stopping the Ukrainian troops, launched a counter-offensive in some regions, especially Bahmut. Trying to conceal this situation, Ukraine announced in August that the offensive had stopped in most places and that Bahmut could fall completely under Russian control.

When the Ukrainian offensive stopped, a general stalemate emerged on the front and the battles were mostly concentrated in the Donbas region. Most of the clashes that occurred were due to regional counterattacks by the Russians with small units. Due to these regional counterattacks, the battles were concentrated in certain settlements and the front was generally immobilized.

Conclusion and Assessment:

The war, which completed its 655th day today, is currently at the level of medium intensity conflict. Both sides appear to have been worn out and have lost their offensive power. The clashes are intermittent and are taking place in certain areas.

This is due to the high casualties in personnel, weapons and vehicles and Russia's tight position defense. Personnel casualties in particular pose difficulties. Although the casualties vary according to the sources, it is stated that both sides have suffered more than 600,000 military casualties since the beginning of the war. As a matter of fact, due to these casualties, the upper age limit in the Ukrainian army has increased from 30 at the beginning of the war to over 40.

Russia also faced the same problems. Despite the casualties, Russia does not have as many problems as Ukraine in recruiting soldiers thanks to its large population. However, as Russia needs more soldiers, it has increased the age of conscription for men from 18 to 27 years to 30 years. 

Russia has also announced that it will increase the number of professional soldiers by 170,000 to 1,320,000 and increase the total number of soldiers from 2.2 million to 4 million. As it is now winter, the intensity of the battles has decreased considerably. The parties are using this gap to prepare for operations in the spring.

The current situation is as shown in the map above. The clashes shown on the map are mainly due to the regional offensives of the Russians with small units. Ukrainian forces are on the defensive. It is not expected that Ukraine will launch a new major offensive operation in the spring. This is because Ukraine is struggling to make up not only its personnel losses, but also its losses in weapons, vehicles and materiel.

This situation is a result of the current world conjuncture. This is because foreign aid has decreased since August and the world's attention has been focused on Gaza since the beginning of October. On the other hand, 64.5 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine was rejected by the US Senate. Ukraine is likely to make some position adjustments and establish permanent defense lines.

Russia could take advantage of this situation and launch an offensive in the spring. However, this offensive will be limited. At most, a possible Russian offensive in the spring could target the area south of the Dinipro-Harkov railroad and the Dnieper River. More likely and logical, however, would be for Russia to seize the area up to the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions and then reassert its defenses along these lines.