Military Evaluation of the Russia-Ukraine War

Decision of the Russians to Regroup:

Russia, which attacked Ukraine from its own territory and Belarus along the entire front on February 24, 2022, announced on March 25 that it would withdraw from the Kyiv region and intensify its operation in the Donbas region. In accordance with this statement, Russian troops in the region began to withdraw in the direction of Belarus. Thereupon, the Ukrainian army advanced towards the north and captured many settlements. As Russian troops to the north of Kyiv withdrew, Ukrainian troops recaptured their territory up to the border, possibly fighting the rearguard.

After that, the Russian troops withdrawing from the Kyiv region began to move south to the Donbas region. The departure of the Russian forces, advancing from the outer part of the half-moon shape of the Ukrainian border, took a long time due to the fact that their outer line position extended the distance of their departure. For this reason, they were able to complete their consolidation in the Donbas region only on April 18.

Military Activities After 18 April:

On April 18, Ukrainian officials claimed that the Russians were planning to seize four regions in eastern Ukraine. According to this claim, the Russians were planning to seize the lands on the Rubezhnoe-Popasnaya-Severodonetsk route in the Luhansk region, and cut this region from other parts of the country. Their second target was the area from Izyum in the Kharkiv region to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Other targets were the Gulyaypole region of Zaporizhia and Mariupol. The Russians had gathered 76 tactical battalions in the region to seize these regions. Tactical battalions consisted of 800-1000 soldiers.

While all Russian forces were gathering in the eastern part of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force was flying an average of 200 sorties daily in the war zone and bombing military targets in Kyiv and Lviv with long-range bombers. In the Black Sea, there was no movement after the sinking of the Moscow cruiser.

On April 19, Ukraine announced that Russian troops had started the war for Donbas and missile attacks on other regions continued without interruption. According to the comments made by Western sources, Russia was aiming to win the Donbas battles and annex the region like Crimea.

On April 20, the Russian Foreign Minister also announced the start of the next phase of the special military operation against Ukraine. Defending that the Russian army is carrying out attacks on military infrastructure facilities in Ukraine, Lavrov stated that they are against the use of nuclear weapons. Lavrov also said that Russian troops launched an attack on the Azovstal iron and steel factory in the city of Mariupol, which has been under siege since March 1.

The Russians realized that they could not take Donbas in a short time:

Despite these and similar statements, the Russians could not make rapid progress in the Donbas region and the Ukrainian army continued its defense successfully. Because the best trained forces of the Ukrainian army were deployed in this region. Although these units suffered great losses in the clashes with the separatists, they were still able to make a strong defense against the Russian army. For this reason, it was understood that the Russians would not be able to take the unoccupied parts of the Donbas region, which they had openly announced that they were planning to take, in a short time.

By Donbas, the Russians meant the coal deposits and iron production center in the region. The place in question was Luhansk and Donetsk, that is, almost the entire eastern part of the country from Mariupol to the far north. Russians saw this region, which was mostly Russian-speaking, not as Ukraine, but as Russia. However, although mostly Russian is spoken in these regions, after the war started, the majority of the people were no longer pro-Russian. Mariupol, for example, was the most pro-Russian region in Ukraine before the war, but it resisted the Russian army to the end.

A few days before the start of the war, Putin announced that Luhansk and Donetsk had accepted independence from Ukraine. If Russia completely seizes these two regions, it will give Putin a great opportunity to succeed. After that, it is expected to annex Donbas. Indeed, the leader of the Luhansk region is already talking about a future referendum.

What is Putin's Real Plan and Intention?

Ukraine; Not only Putin's Donbas; He thinks he plans to annex the entire region, from the south of Kherson to the north and west of the Crimea. Because if they do this, the Russians will have controlled the entire region from the southern coast to the Russian border and the water supply line to Crimea. Most of Donetsk and critical areas of Luhansk are still under Ukrainian control; For this reason, the Russian army is trying to encircle the Ukrainian troops from the north, south and east.

This plan seems quite plausible on the face of it, but the area under which it is planned to be captured is too large to control. Moreover, the geographical difficulties of this region should not be ignored. Moreover, they have not yet managed to even take control of Kharkov. By April 20, they were able to enter the town of Izyum, a critical location on the highway that only provides access to separatist-controlled areas.

The Russians came to Izyum by approaching over the main roads. Because they transport most of their vehicles and ammunition by road and rail. Their next destination seems to be the city of Slovyansk. After Slovyansk, Kramatorsk is just south of it. If Ukraine manages to stand up to Russian forces in Slovyansk, Russia's plan to seize the whole of the two regions may fail.

While advancing from north to east, the Russian army attacked several towns in Luhansk, including Kremenna, Rubizhne, Popasna and Lysychansk. These towns are important because if they take control of them, the Russians can move west and join up with their troops attacking southeast from Izyum. For this reason, the Ukrainian army focuses on counter-attacks outside of Izyum.

Russians Seeking to Cut Logistics Lines in Ukraine:

The Russians are now trying to close the supply lines on the highways and block the railroads coming from the west. Because the most effective personnel and ammunition transport method for the Ukrainian army is railways; these roads are also necessary for the evacuation of civilians. Controlling the railways also means easier transport of their soldiers and ammunition for the Russians.

There is also the possibility of damage to the railways during these attacks. Ukraine therefore hastened the evacuation of civilians. The railways going north from Izyum and going to Mariupol and Melitopol were cut off. In Slovyansk, there are disruptions in train journeys. This was the purpose of the attack on the train station in Kramatorsk.

At the beginning of the war, the southern 10 brigades of the Ukrainian army were considered the best trained and best equipped Ukrainian troops. In recent days, many volunteers have been registered to this union; For this reason, it is claimed that they may have become stronger. Russian troops, on the other hand, have suffered very significant losses in the battles that have taken place so far. For this reason, it seems that their morale is low. The aim of the Ukrainians is to further demoralize the Russian army by inflicting as much damage as possible. For this reason, they use asymmetric tactics instead of fierce positional battles.

Higher Morale of the Ukrainian Army:

Despite all the resistance of the Ukrainians, Russia announced on April 21 that it had made progress in some areas. For example, they captured Mariupol. Only Ukrainian fighters at the Azovstal plant continue to resist. There are nearly two thousand Ukrainian soldiers at the Azovstal factory. These soldiers are surrounded by the Russians. The Russian defense minister offered to organize an attack on the factory, but since capturing the factory, which has many underground tunnels built during World War II, would cause heavy casualties, Putin ordered not to attack but to put the factory under a complete blockade.

After that, Russia continued to carry out attacks on Ukrainian targets with missiles and planes. Russia responded negatively to the calls for negotiations, arguing that Ukraine was trying to buy time by prolonging the negotiations. Despite this, Zelensky offered to exchange Ukrainian civilians and soldiers in Mariupol for Russian prisoners and dead. Russia objected to this, arguing that they had opened safe corridors for civilians and soldiers to leave the area, but that this corridor was not used. Meanwhile, Russian troops were trying to advance towards the city of Kramatorsk. Western sources claimed that Russia brought new troops to the region to compensate for the lack of force and continued the offensive, increasing the number of battalions to 85 and continuing the dispatch of forces.

Will the War Spread to Moldova?

On April 22, the attacks intensified in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. According to the statement of the Ukrainian authorities, the majority of the force of the Russian army was located in these two regions. EU sources claimed that Russia will intensify its attacks in eastern Ukraine and the southern coasts in the future and that the next two weeks may be decisive in the course of the war. Meanwhile, a Russian general's statement in his speech that Russia would invade the south of Ukraine and establish contact with the separatist Dnieper region caused Moldova to worry that the war would spread to its own lands.

The attack of the Russian army on Odessa on the Black Sea coast with missiles on April 24 further increased this concern. Russia also ignored the calls for a temporary ceasefire due to Easter. Russia's attacks continued in the form of air strikes in many cities, especially in the eastern region. Land attacks were also carried out in the east of the country, but the Ukrainian army was able to repel these attacks.

In Azovstal, on the other hand, the tactic of forcing surrender by siege was applied. The siege of the Russian army is expected to continue until the stocks of food and ammunition are depleted. Ukrainian authorities claim that the Russians were not content with the siege and shot down the factory with planes. They also suggest that Russian forces will soon increase the scale of ground operations.

The Russian army is still trying to take control of the Popasna and Rubijne settlements. It is understood that he is also preparing to attack the city of Severodonetsk. However, Western sources claim that Russia's offensive power was broken, many Russian troops were pushed back by Ukrainian troops, and that the Russians could hold a referendum on joining Russia in some regions they captured to cover up this weakness.

The Latest Situation at the Front as of April 27:

From the statements made on 25 April, it is understood that the nature of the war, which took the form of mostly residential battles, is about to change, with the Russian army withdrawing from the forested northern areas to focus on the eastern industrial center of Donbas. This situation is about to change Ukraine's military needs. For this reason, Zelenski began to ask for help from Western states, saying that they needed more artillery, tanks and heavy weapon ammunition assistance.

Thinking that these aids and other logistical needs would be carried to the front mainly by rail, Russia started to intensify its attacks on railways and railway stations. Russia is announcing that it is uncomfortable with the aid that will come, with official statements, to the states that provide these aids. As a matter of fact, the Russian foreign minister said on April 26 that they wanted the problems with Ukraine to be resolved through negotiations, but some countries wanted Russia to disappear and continued to provide weapons to Ukraine for this.

General Evaluation of the War:

Russia made a major mistake in planning at the strategic level, possibly as a result of a situational judgment based on inaccurate intelligence information. The most basic indicator of this; attacking from a very wide front with insufficient troops. The fact that the battles turned into built-up battles in which a lot of force was needed made the lack of force even more serious.

The Russian army, which attacked on a wide front and in the outer line position, could not comply with the basic war principles, and also encountered great problems in supply, maintenance and force shifting. When the Ukrainian army applied the concept of attrition by using weapons and tactics that would create an asymmetric effect instead of the classical defense depending on the lines, the Russians suffered heavy losses.

Despite the fact that the Russian army saw that this situation caused failure, they insisted on continuing the attack in the same order and order for a month. However, they decided to change the plan towards the end of March, as they made little progress despite heavy casualties.

The Front Is Too Wide and The Unity of Command Cannot Be Provided:

Since the Russians realized that their biggest mistake was to attack on a very wide front with insufficient force, they modified the second phase of the operation accordingly. Accordingly, they re-deployed their forces in the Donbas region to make it the center of gravity. The fact that the width and depth of the front was reduced to at least half greatly facilitated logistics activities, unit shifts and command and command unity.

The Russians must have felt that the lack of unity of command also had a major impact on the failure. Because they appointed an operation area commander for the operation, which was previously managed by the ministry of defense and the general staff. The Russians seem to have changed in their operations according to the concept of maneuver. It is seen that they are trying to seize the residential areas one by one, rather than the maneuvers in the open area, thus breaking the will and determination of the defense of the Ukrainian army.

However, it is seen that the Ukrainian army is well prepared for defense in the field and tries to procure a large number of tanks, artillery and armored vehicles from outside for this purpose. This shows that Ukraine will also change the concept implemented. If this happens, it is likely that fierce battles will take place in Europe in the coming days, in which the two armies collide with their armored units for the first time since World War II.