Reasons Leading Ukraine to War

State Solemnity and Ukraine

The establishment of the state is a time-consuming process:

You cannot become a state even when you say, "There will be a state, be a state," overnight. We see, we see. First of all, the device called the state cannot produce activity. It is not easy to leave one pact and take a place in another pact. Especially if your arm is cut off after a war. In addition, 10 years, 20 years or even 31 years are worthless in the system of statehood. We have seen that another parameter of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that Ukraine has followed an attitude far from the seriousness of the state. I don't know, did you notice? Istanbul, where they still stay away from the bureaucratic culture of writing, was revealed before the negotiations, and in line with Putin's request, they gained the culture of writing and correspondence during the Istanbul negotiations. It should not be forgotten that the Republic of Turkey is a serious bureaucratic state. It is one of the foundations of the Turkish Republic, which inherited from the Ottoman Empire, the parameter of being a serious bureaucratic state. During the Istanbul negotiations, the Ukrainian State was only able to put forward a planning guide and road map to the public. He was able to taste the military, economic, public works and political issues, in the words of the ancients, in a way that would cover the past and the future. This is what it is like to go through the teaching of the Republic of Turkey.

Soros Revolutions:

As you know, the underlying problem of the Ukrainian War started after the Orange Revolution. As you know, there was neither Nord Stream-1 nor Nord Stream 2 Project at that time. Europe's gas was going through Ukraine. Even Siberian gas was tied here. Come to see that, with the habit of being a member of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine has started not to pay for the gas it uses, while increasing the toll on the one hand, under the influence of Soros. Famous financier George Soros has invested a lot of money in this business. It did serious damage. Undoubtedly, while other world-famous dollar billionaires increased their wealth at least one, at most 18.5 times, the wealth of George Soros decreased by 61 percent between 2009 and 2019, from $ 18 billion to $ 7 billion. Thus, Soros, who is also the subject of discussion with his political activities, has lost an average of 1.1 billion dollars each year and a total of 11 billion dollars in the last 10 years until 2019. This is why the color revolutions Soros organized around the world, many of which failed, are remembered for this reason. (one)

Cause of the Ukrainian War:

In fact, wasn't the main purpose of these revolutions to weaken ties with Russia? From the Orange Revolution in 2004 until 2009, Ukraine has accumulated more than $2 billion in debt to Russia, it uses natural gas, but it did not consciously pay for it. The reason was extremely simple, RF had to give gas to Ukraine, they will continue to do so, if they cut off my gas in Ukraine, Europe would be cut off as well, he thought. On the other hand, he was sending a message to the EU, acting in the mode of "if you don't protect me, you can't get gas either". In addition, the US administration has been supporting Ukraine behind closed doors, as it has been against Russia's supply of natural gas to Europe since the Reagan era, since the day the Trans-Siberian Pipeline was opened. This is how the foundation of the war in Ukraine was laid, dear readers. A sluggish policy was followed by Ukraine, and this was embraced by the United States. In this way, Ukraine felt stronger, dreamed that it would be included in NATO, on the other hand, it thought that it would join the European Union by resting against Russia. With the self-confidence of relying on the EU (D) by leaving its identity as a responsible state that fulfilled its obligations, it not only failed to pay its debt to the RF, but also attempted to raise the toll fee. The Turkish version of this openly challenged Moscow, bringing the illegal practice to say "you will both give free gas and pay more for the toll". Finally, it was on New Year's Eve 2009, when the ropes broke and the cold was multiplied, the RF cut off the gas, which was believed to be unstoppable, and closed the valve. Currently, as of 01 April 2022, although it is stated by the RF that the natural gas flow of the countries receiving gas from Nord Stream-1 has not been interrupted, the natural gas flow to the Baltic countries, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which refuses to pay in rubles, has been cut off. This was announced to the public by Uldis Barış, the chairman of the board of directors of “Conexus Baltic Grid” (Conexus JSC), a government and Japanese natural gas distribution company. (2nd)

Impact of the 2008 Bucharest Summit:

But the main issue is Ukraine and Georgia, which was taken at the NATO Leaders Summit held in Bucharest on April 1, 2008, in NATO's III. It can be said that the Enlargement Decision had an impact on this. At the NATO-Russia Council meeting held after the summit in Bucharest, Putin, who strongly opposed enlargement, asked, "Who is NATO against?" The Economist Magazine gives the direct answer: "against Russia." Indeed, the situation is so obvious. 

expressed in clay. As a matter of fact, this was not a wrong answer. Although NATO determined the fight against terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as its main target after the Cold War, it has emerged as an undeniable fact that NATO's strategic aim is to curb Russia's overt or covert ambitions. To put it more accurately, RF very naturally perceived the joining of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO as a threat. Consider that if these two countries became NATO members, Russia would have surrounded itself with NATO countries in the Black Sea. (3)

Russian Monreo Doctrine:

Upon this clear threat, the RF directly declared that neither Georgia nor Ukraine could be a part of NATO. This situation can be clearly explained as a survival problem of the RF and a "Russian Monreo Doctrine". The Monroe doctrine, which was officially presented to the US Congress on December 2, 1823 by the US President James Monroe, has been the unchanging Constitution of US politics until 1941. In short, the Monroe doctrine states that “Great distant power cannot be allowed to move into the Western Hemisphere and enter its backyard.” described as. The Monroe doctrine has been so effective that; Its leader, who showed the slightest deviation from the Monroe doctrine, which clarified the US policy in world politics, was not even tolerated. A typical example is the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Starting with the US placing nuclear warheads in Turkey and Italy, and the USSR in Cuba; It is the crisis that brought the two superpowers of the period against each other in October 1962 and left the world under the threat of nuclear war. The USA challenged the USSR by asserting the Monreo doctrine. The US also opposed the Soviet establishment of a naval base in Cienfuegos, Cuba, saying that "military forces cannot be allowed in the Western hemisphere". As a result of these mutual challenges, the missiles placed in Cuba by the USSR were removed, a naval base could not be established in Cienfuegos in Cuba, and the idea of ​​placing nuclear warheads in Turkey and Italy, which was planned by the USA in return, was abandoned. In this way, the parties have made their own backyards clear.

Saying yes to two enlargements of NATO, the winner of the Cold War, RF, III. He knew how to say no to expansion. In response to NATO's challenge at the Bucharest Leaders' Summit, RF categorically announced its answers to the whole world. However, the USA has tended to present itself as a compassionate hegemonic power for some reason. As a natural consequence of this point of view, as the USA, we can do whatever we want in the world, it has entered the "mode". However, the RF openly showed its cards and declared its response to the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest summit as follows:

"Both Ukraine and Georgia cannot become members of NATO.

Is Ukraine's Joining NATO an Existential Threat:

Ukraine's becoming a part of NATO has been perceived beyond doubt as an existential threat to RF. This approach is clearly a challenge against a challenge. In addition, it is evaluated by RF that it is read correctly. As it is clearly defined in the NATO Establishment Treaty signed in Washington, 1949, "States with border problems or whose lands are occupied cannot become members of NATO. As soon as they become a member, NATO is forced to go to war as per the famous article 5, which includes the provision "all for one". Therefore, states such as Georgia and Ukraine cannot become members of NATO as long as their lands are occupied or unless they give up their lands. “

Square Revolution and After:

That's why, as a natural result of this description, on an unforgettable date, 08.08.2008, taking advantage of the opening of the Beijing Summer Olympics, RF intervened in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. As expected soon after, the second development was a new US challenge in Ukraine in 2014. In 2014, the United States helped finance the “Square Revolution” in Kiev, which overthrew a democratically elected president, Victor Yanukovych. Senator John McCain and Victoria Nuland of the US State Department were seen in the square cheering the rebels. (4)

Yanukovych was fired on the convoy on his way to Kharkov, and then in February 2014, with the help of the Russian authorities, he was taken to Crimea and from there to Russia. After Yanukovych was dismissed and his powers were temporarily transferred to Oleksandr Turchinov, Turchinov approved the call for early elections, while Petro Poroshenko, known as the oligarch, was elected president. On March 4, 2014, Putin said at a press conference about the developments in Ukraine that he saw Viktor Yanukovych as the legitimate president of Ukraine and evaluated the events as an unconstitutional coup. Then a peninsula connected to Ukraine 

After the referendum, Crimea was officially connected to Russia with a military intervention on 18 March 2014. (5)

Tension Rising:

The tension that started from this date was followed by the AUKUS organization, which was a nuclear submarine military alliance agreement signed between the UK, Australia and the USA, in June 2021 with a destroyer sailing in the Russian territorial waters in the Black Sea, and the USA taking a hunting bomber and circling it along the Russian coastline in the Black Sea. It should be noted that the PRC showed a great reaction to this agreement. This challenge was challenged by the RF, and the Ukrainian war, which started with the RF's entry into Donbas as a summoned force on a meaningful date on 22.02.2022, this time after the end of the winter Olympics in Beijing, has survived until today.

Conclusion:

As can be seen, the neutral state understanding that Ukraine has fulfilled from 1991 to 2004 and the buffer state approach that it has actually undertaken are in front of us as a solution. The current situation of Ukraine is very similar to the Austrian State Treaty of 1955, which ended the 10-year occupation of Russia after the Second World War, and almost overlaps with each other. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin, also suggested that Ukraine could have a neutral status like Austria and Sweden. More precisely, the RF has made it a warm recommendation, because it has 10 years of Austrian experience from 1945 to 1955. EU member Austria, which has avoided NATO membership for 67 years, has maintained and continues to be a neutral state. The West therefore almost agrees on the "Austrian model", which seems to be the best solution for Ukraine. In other words, the Russian army will withdraw, while Ukraine will undertake to remain neutral, especially not to join NATO. As Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu clearly stated, the "Austrian Model" is considered to be an ideal solution for Turkey as well as for Ukraine, dear readers.

footnotes

(1)  Did Soros spend 11 billion dollars on the 'Orange Revolutions' in 10 years? Aydınlık Newspaper, 25 January 2019; https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/haber/soros-10-yilda-11-milyar-dolari-turuncu-devrimlere-mi-harcadi-116323/Access Date 03.04.2022/

(2) Natural gas from Russia has not flowed to the Baltic states since April, 02.04. 2022; https://nra.lv/latvija/377267-kops-aprila-uz-baltijas-valstim-vairs-neplust-dabasgaze-no-krievijas.htm/Access Date 03.04.2022/

(3) “What is the Monroe Doctrine? Briefly, what are the principles on which it is based?”, Milliyet Newspaper, 10.06.2021; https://www.milliyet.com.tr/egitim/monroe-doktrini-nedir-kisaca-dayandigi-esaslar-nedür-6527921/ Access Date 03.04.2022/

(4) Defamatory Diplomacy: Would Biden's Blaming Putin Help? 01.04.2022; https://www.unz.com/pbuchanan/insult-diplomacy-does-bidens-vilification-of-putin-help/Access Date 03.04.2022/

(5) Yiğit Çobanoğlu, “The Ukraine Crisis Since 2014”, Left, 18.12.2021; https://haber.sol.org.tr/haber/2014ten-bugune-ukrayna-krizi-321062/ Access Date 03.04.2022/