Rojava (Western Kurdistan) is the Final Target of the Ground Operation

What do the organizations claiming to be based on ethnic Kurdish origins want?

Let us answer the question from the beginning. In all the countries where Kurds are present, in the regions where they are in the majority, they act with the idea of having an autonomous administration of their own. The next step after autonomous administration is to move to a federated state structure. For this purpose, they aim to abolish the nation-state structures and move towards decentralized governance. This is what they want to do in Turkey and Iran, but have not yet succeeded! However, the safe haven that the US provided to Kurdish groups north of the 36th parallel in Iraq after the First Gulf War enabled and reinforced the construction of an autonomous administration in the north of Iraq after the final invasion in 2003. With the 2011 Arab Spring, a similar structure or scenario is about to be constructed in northern Syria.

Today, it is estimated, albeit imprecisely, that there is a Kurdish population of around 2.5-3.1 million in northern Syria. According to Kurdish sources, this figure is around 5-6 million. The region in Syria where the ethnic Kurdish population lives is called Rojava. It is a Kurdish word meaning 'west'. Today, the Kurdish population in Syria in the region called Rojava or Western Kurdistan is concerned with building an Autonomous Administration of their own and protecting the gains they have made so far on the road to 'independence'. This virtual, unrealistic love for Rojava is behind all the fighting and panic in Syria. 

How did the Kurdish Autonomous Administration flourish in the region called Rojava? 

In November 2013, an Autonomous Kurdish Administration was established in Syria. They have territorial claims or demands. Although they do not express it openly for now, they have allocated a place called 'Rojava' on the Syrian map. As you know, they have formed a state. PYD is the political wing of this autonomous administration. In fact, PYD started its activities on October 17, 2003 under the name of Partiya Yekitiya Demokrat/Democratic Union Party (PYD) in order to continue its existence in Syria in line with the instructions of the terrorist leader Abdullah Öcalan and the goals of the PKK. It is almost 20 years old.

At the end of 2016, the PYD administration drafted a constitution for the Kurdish autonomous region of Rojava, almost as if the Syrian state had collapsed. It was decided that a canton and federation structure would be valid in the PYD formation. Today, the PYD has representative offices in Switzerland and many European countries. The PYD is still led by Salih Muslim and Asya Abdullah. Let's remember that Salih Muslim was in Ankara in the summer of 2013. In other words, we are talking about a PYD leadership that could find an interlocutor even in Turkey for a while.

If the PYD is the political wing, the YPG represents the military wing. In other words, the ethnic Kurdish community in Syria even has its own "army". They call it a self-defense force. The formation, which the PYD leadership calls the People's Protection Units (YPG), has had the opportunity to present itself to the international public opinion as an organization fighting against ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) through its armed elements. From our point of view, the armed terrorist organization called YPG is the Syrian branch of the PKK. In a way, it is the Syrian PKK. With the support of the United States and with Turkey's connivance, this armed organization has found a living space for itself in the past. It is currently a terrorist organization with 85 thousand militants according to some sources and 110 thousand according to others. The US has allocated a budget of 188 million dollars to this terrorist organization for 2023. Despite Turkey's justified objections, the US has not hesitated to ship trucks full of weapons to this organization in the past years. The only justification put forward by the US is that this organization is fighting alongside US soldiers in the fight against ISIS. They argue that this is why they were given this money and weapons. Moreover, the US prefers to call this terrorist organization the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in line with its mission. In this case, the Syrian PKK is as much an American ally as Turkey. In fact, within Syria's borders, they are seen as a more valuable allied organization than Turkey.

The terrorist organization YPG is led by a terrorist named Ferhat Abdi Sahin, born in 1967. The Kurds call him Mazlum Kobani. Kobani is the Kurdish name for the city of Ayn al-Arab, a predominantly Arab city, which is accessed through the Mürşitpınar border crossing in Turkey. In a way, Kobani is the capital of the region they call Rojava. Abdi, who is wanted by the Turkish Interior Ministry and Interpol with a red notice, was apparently honored with a name associated with Kobani.

A Domino Effect of the Claw Sword Air Operation?

PYD/YPG attach great importance to Turkey's Claw Sword Air Operation on November 19. This is because this operation and the subsequent ground operation had a disruptive effect on the structure of the PYD/YPG. Turkey is now saying to the US, the PYD/YPG's patron, and to some extent to Russia, keep the promises you made in the past or I will start a ground operation. In the meantime, I believe that if there is to be a ground operation, the main target should be Ayn al-Arab, and Tel Rifaat and Manbij are somewhat secondary.

If carried out, a ground operation could eliminate the presence of the PYD/YPG in Syria. This is the only unspoken danger for the Kurds. This operation could throw away almost 20 years of work that they have been doing. According to the PYD, there have been and continue to be gradual air strikes by the Turkish army in order to destroy all their accumulated military, political, economic and whatever else they have in this region. 

The important point here is this: Turkey has also targeted the American entity that is the patron of the PYD/YPG organization that claims to represent the ethnic Kurdish population in this region. Turkey has to destroy the American buttress behind this organization. Otherwise, it has become almost impossible for Turkey to establish a safe corridor in Syria. This is why Turkey is constantly keeping the possibility of a ground operation on the agenda. I believe that the Interior Minister's statement implying that the US might be behind the explosion on istiklal Street should be read in this context. 

Apparently, the US-backed Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which emerged as a de facto formation inside Syria, is no longer wanted by Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime. On July 19, Erdoğan, Putin and Reisi, who met in Tehran, openly declared the Kurdish autonomous administration in Rojava illegitimate. All parties consider the American presence in Syria unacceptable for their own interests.

Although there are now speculations that the US might withdraw from the region, the special envoy for Syria has denied this, saying that the American presence in Syria will continue. 

In this situation, I think Erdogan has deliberately chosen to escalate tensions with the U.S. There is probably a search for bargaining with the U.S. on the table. In order for the American side to take the steps Turkey expected, first of all, the Claw Sword Air Operation was carried out on the night of November 19, 2022. Erdogan openly stated that a ground operation would follow, and it is still on the agenda. 

Before the air operation, Turkish and American delegations met. After November 19, the American delegation also held a meeting with the leaders of the Syrian PKK. But I believe that no result was achieved. Nowadays, the Americans are telling the Syrian PKK that they should come to an agreement with Turkey. The Kurds have even been offered to unite with the Free Syrian Army in Syria and act as a joint opposition wing against the regime. If this happens, if the YPG becomes part of the Syrian national army, the Americans must be saying that we can prevent a possible Turkish operation. 

What is the US trying to do?

It is as if Biden wants to reconstruct the structure of the Obama era, i.e. before 2016, in Syria in line with American interests. In those years, the American side aimed to unite the Syrian opposition, including the Kurds, under the Train-and-Donate project and overthrow the Assad regime, and eventually build a democratic structure representing all parties in Syrian society. Perhaps for this reason, Turkey also supported the Kurdish formation in northern Syria.

However, Turkey never wanted to give a place in the Syrian opposition to a formation that would lead to Kurdish independence in Syria. Therefore, it was not possible for the Syrian PKK to become part of the Syrian opposition as the US wanted. Despite this failed policy, the US is persistently trying to go back to the 2010s.

Damascus, on the other hand, demands a return to pre-2010, when everything was under its control. These days, the Russians are the liaison between the PYD leadership and Damascus. The Assad regime says, "The autonomous administration of Rojava should be abolished, abolished, and become a part of Syria". Then it says that the future of the Kurds will be looked into together through constitutional arrangements. Russia and Iran also support Damascus. This may have been seen as a favorable approach for Turkey as well.

I think the possibility of a ground operation, which is kept on the agenda by Turkey, has become a useful argument for the US these days to push the Kurds to the opposition wing. The PYD can only be part of the opposition in Syria if they remain as an autonomous administration. This means a continued threat to Turkey.

If Turkey invades Rojava, the US presence in the region will be impossible. It may not be in the interests of the US to leave the region. Therefore, the American side is in a hurry to find a middle way. 

In fact, what is called Rojava should not be seen only as a region of Syria and should not be considered narrowly. It is related to the Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Imrali and the HDP. It should be seen as a part of a big package. I think that Rojava, like Mahabad in Iran, which was declared an independent state for a short time in 1946, is of great importance among all Kurdish groups.

The PYD/YPG said, "We supported the US in the past. ISIS was destroyed thanks to us. Now the US should protect our gains (in Rojava). We don't want to be part of the Syrian opposition. If not, we will stop fighting ISIS. If necessary, we will resist the ground operation." 

As Turkey, we should keep up the pressure for a ground operation and our army should indeed enter Syria to destroy the autonomous administration in Syria. However, before that, Turkey should definitely sit down with the Syrian regime. The Syrian opposition and Damascus must be reconciled. If necessary, we should explain our policy of protecting Syria's territorial integrity to the Damascus regime and reassure them. 

Conclusion

Yes, we are going through a very critical phase. The autonomous administration in Syria, which the Kurds call Rojava, must be put to history as soon as possible by Ankara, acting together with Moscow-Tehran-Damascus. The American side should also choose its side as soon as possible and put aside the threatening language against Turkey such as "if you take action...". After all, the US is a country that has adopted the realist paradigm in its foreign policy, guided by rational reason. I think it will necessarily say Turkey.