Russia's red lines are being crossed one by one

Even before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Russia had begun to make threatening statements about its response to a possible NATO or EU intervention. These statements were generally expressed as Russia's red lines. However, despite the fact that the US and European countries have crossed these red lines since the beginning of the war, Russia has not been able to give any serious response.

However, the threats contained very serious and worrying statements. In 2021, Putin said: "I hope no one will think of crossing Russia's red lines. We will determine where these lines will be." Putin made a harsh statement.

Later, with the statements made by Russian statesmen, the red lines began to be declared more concretely. One of these red lines was the use of US and Western weapons to attack Russian territory. Russian officials openly threatened the United States, saying that if this happened, they would support and arm anti-US movements all over the world.

Initially, the US and EU countries seemed to take such threats at least partly seriously. For example, from the beginning of the war they only supplied Ukraine with shoulder-fired and short-range air defence and anti-tank weapons. But they still sent thousands of them. The US and the European countries also imposed restrictions on the use of the weapons they gave to Ukraine, stating that they could only be used within Ukraine's borders.  

However, Russia's threats are becoming less and less important. Even Russia's hints and even declarations that it might use nuclear weapons were not taken seriously. The United States and European countries have sent large numbers of artillery, mortar and Multiple Barrel Rocket Launcher (MLRR) weapons and advanced air defence systems to Ukraine.

In addition, several countries, including Turkey, sold Ukraine a large number of drones and UCAVs. Later, Ukraine also received tanks, long-range MLRS and HIMARS. In addition to weapons, vehicles and equipment, Ukraine also received large sums of money in the form of grants and loans. This allowed Ukraine to continue the war and thus the defence against Russia was successful.

The success of the Ukrainian defence resulted in the Russian troops, who accepted the failure, first narrowing the front and finally retreating to the defence. Parallel to this process, monetary and arms aid to Ukraine was increased in terms of both quantity and effectiveness.

Although Russia developed a new language of threat with every failure and every aid to Ukraine, the US and EU countries, which did not find these threats realistic, continued their aid. Not only that, but they also lifted the restrictions on Western weapons that they had previously imposed on Ukraine. As a matter of fact, they allowed the offensive use of the weapons provided as Western aid against Russian territory.

As a result, Ukraine started to hit Russian strategic targets (ports, air defence systems, airports, etc.). For example, drones were used to attack Russian warplanes at the Akhtubinsk airfield, more than 300 miles from the front line. Although the Russians had previously made many threats and drew many red lines, they failed to respond effectively. Threats have turned out to be false and the red lines have faded away or turned green.

As a result, despite Russia's strong warnings and threats, the Netherlands decided to send Dutch F-16s and French Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine. Ukraine also asked Sweden to send Saab Gripen aircraft. Thus, almost all restrictions on NATO countries' assistance to Ukraine have been lifted.

This situation is undermining Russia's prestige. Putin's dull gaze and threatening expression at the beginning of the war no longer frightens anyone. Seeing this, NATO and the EU countries are able to adopt ever more daring courses of action.