Tanks to Ukraine; Does It Mean Inviting a Nuclear Duel?

The Russia-Ukraine War, which started on February 24 last year, continues to be on the world's agenda with new news every day as it enters its first year. The latest development on the agenda is the tanks to be given to Ukraine. The war is currently stabilized in eastern Ukraine due to the winter conditions. All assessments are that in the spring, both sides will defeat their opponents with offensives and counter-offensives and end the war as victors.

Immediately after the outbreak of the war, Western countries started to provide arms and equipment to Ukraine after both sides brought mercenaries and foreign volunteer fighters into the field. Food, ammunition, small arms, light weapons (SALW), anti-tank weapons, artillery systems and now a tank consortium has been established for Ukraine. According to various sources, approximately 90 tanks of the following models and types from the following countries will be given to Ukraine in the first phase.

Figure-1 Tank Quantities Projected to be Supplied to Ukraine

First of all, let's get to know the tank weapon system. The tanks to be supplied to Ukraine are called Main Battle Tank (MBT). Today, tanks have become a technology-intensive and complex weapon system. The tanks reportedly to be supplied to Ukraine fall into this category. 

There are two important problem areas for the effective use of tanks in Ukraine. These are training and logistics. It is unlikely that the tanks will be used immediately by Ukrainian personnel. There are two ways to overcome the lack of training: Ukrainian tank personnel should be given serious training in the country or abroad. Otherwise, it comes to mind that these tanks will be used by experienced tank personnel sent to Ukraine from the countries that issued them. It was shared on the social media accounts of the British Ministry of Defense that Ukrainian personnel who will be trained on Challenger 2 tanks have arrived in the UK. 

Another issue related to the tanks is ammunition and maintenance and repair. Based on the assumption that the logistics system is available in the Ukrainian army, it is seen as a less problematic issue. The ammunition of the tanks to be donated can be delivered to the front line and replenished with Ukraine's existing system. The maintenance and repair of the tanks, especially their spare parts, should be made available in the Ukrainian logistics system together with their spare parts, including the engine, based on experience. It was shared with the public that maintenance and repair support was provided to artillery personnel by using mobile phones and tablets via the internet for the maintenance and repair of artillery systems. However, it is certain that special maintenance and repair techniques will be used for the M-1 Abrams tanks with gas turbine engines that the US has promised to provide.

Let us now examine the capabilities of the donated tanks and the tanks in the inventory of the Russian armed forces. These capabilities are shown in the table below.

Table-1 Tank Comparison 

The total number of tanks is estimated to be around 150, including additional countries. But can this number of tanks change the course of the war? As can be seen from the table, the technical specifications of the tanks to be donated are slightly more advanced than the Russian tanks. It is seen that the tanks in the Russian Army that can be compared with these tanks are the T-80 and T-90. The number of tanks in Russia is over 10,000, but the number of tanks like the T-90 is around 500. Also, the tank losses of both sides in this war are not exactly known.

Assuming that Ukraine is still using the Soviet Union, i.e. Russian tactics and doctrine, 150 tanks would be equivalent to about 5 Tnk Tb. Western countries generally have around 40 tanks in their TNCs, while the TNCs of the countries applying the Russian doctrine have around 30 tanks. If these TNCs are organized as infantry units, they also consist of about 40 tanks. Tanks are the weapon of decision in conventional land operations. When used en masse, they create pressure on the enemy through superiority in fire, mobility and morale. Again, in Russian doctrine, the frontal width of the Armored Regiment (3 Tnk.Tb+1 Motorized P.Tb) while attacking is approximately 3-8 kilometers depending on the terrain and enemy formation. Therefore, it is envisaged that these tanks donated to the Ukrainian forces can be used in a terrain of approximately 10-15 kilometers in order to effectively reflect the above-mentioned superiorities. Therefore, these tanks donated to Ukraine can be used in mass in a place that promises success in a counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine. Otherwise, if they are used individually as 1-2 tanks, as shown in the images on TV and social media since the beginning of the war, the effect of these tanks will be considerably reduced.

There have been allegations in the press that Russia could use nuclear weapons in the event of the use of depleted uranium-core ammunition to be sent with the tanks. Ammunition with depleted uranium core was produced especially by the US for use in M-1 Abrams tanks. It was used and criticized by the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. In MBTs, the steel core APFSDS-T (Armour Piercing Fin-stabilized Discarding Sabot - Armour Piercing Fin-stabilized Discarding Sabot - Armour Piercing Steel Core Sabot), in other words, Tungsten metal is used to increase the hardness of the core of the ammunition that goes to the target at high speed with kinetic energy. 

The US uses depleted uranium in some ammunition to further increase this hardness and impact on the target. It is generally believed that this ammunition explodes like a nuclear weapon. Therefore, when this projectile hits the target, it does not explode like any nuclear weapon. However, even if it is limited and accidental, contact with a shell core that has fallen into the environment or land, or contact with particles that are sprayed into the air at the time of the first hit, may contaminate the person who comes into contact with it. There are also claims that it can mix with rainwater and, to a lesser extent, with drinking water. However, it is definitely not a nuclear weapon, even at the tactical level. The US used uranium in some models of M-1 tanks to increase the hardness and strength of the armor on the turret. However, this was abandoned due to the negative effects of the uranium used here on the tank personnel. Again, according to sources related to the defense industry, the US has also given up the production of uranium-core ammunition. However, it is not known exactly how much uranium-core ammunition is in stock. 

Figure-2: Comparison of the effect of tungsten and depleted uranium ammunition on the target

Konstantin Gavrilov, Russia's Permanent Representative to the OSCE, stated that the M-1 Abrams and Bradley Armored vehicles that the United States is/will be giving to Ukraine will be armed with uranium-core projectiles, and that although these munitions are not nuclear weapons, they have caused harm to both civilians and the environment, including maimed births in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan. Gavrilov stated that if the West were to provide Ukraine with systems that could fire these projectiles, his country would challenge the West to a nuclear duel. Let us assume that the US responds to this statement by saying that the systems to be sent by the US will not use Uranium-core ammunition. In this case, would Russia not react at all to the tanks given to Ukraine and accept them as legitimate? Therefore, Gavrilov's statement should be targeted at the donated tanks, rather than the use of Uranium-core ammunition. 

What could be the purpose of sending these tanks, even in small numbers? There was a claim that we brought up from the beginning of the war. The US wants to neutralize Russia in a struggle with China after 2030. The NATO-2030 Strategic Document gives us clues in this regard. With this war, the US wanted to test Russia's conventional and nuclear power. With the stage reached in the war, it was able to understand its conventional power. However, it still does not understand the level of its nuclear power. By constantly introducing new instruments into the battlefield, Ukraine is trying to understand when, where and how powerful Russia can use its nuclear power. when? where? with what power? Therefore, the delivery of these tanks could be for this purpose.

Conclusion 

As a result, it is thought that Ukraine will not carry out the offensive in the spring with a force that will be formed only with the donated tanks. Along with the tanks, it should be taken into account that plenty of modern anti-tank weapons, artillery and even Patriot air defense systems will be used. If there is no reaction from Russia, the US may take the lead in making more tanks and complex systems available to Ukraine. At the moment, however, it seems that Russia is more obsessed with ammunition than tanks. Nevertheless, it is predicted that Russia's military response, not Ukraine's, will determine who will prevail in this offensive, which is expected to take place in the spring. 

References:

-Tanks to be sent to Ukraine. https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/ukraynaya-gonderilmesi-planlanan-tanklar-neden-onemli-740881.html

-Comparison of tanks. https://tanks-encyclopedia.com/

-Russia OSCE representative gavrilov's statement https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-russia-throws-down-nuclear-gauntlet-over-m1-bradley-and-other-offensive-weaponry-to-kiev

-Russia -Is the Ukraine war a US experiment? https://strasam.org/analiz-ve-raporlar/analiz/rusya-ukrayna-savasi-abdnin-bir-denemesi-mi-595