The Greco-Turkish War Approaching

Is There a Possibility of Turkish-Greek War?

Our ancestors said, "A friend tells pain." said. This is a very meaningful and important saying indeed. Because there can be many so-called friends who use their sweet language and cunning mind to get into your defense area. These may sow the seeds of thoughts that will wear you out in the long run, or they may trigger a development that will be directly against you. But true friends tell the truth, even if it hurts, even if you don't like it or know you're going to react. If you have something against you, don't sugarcoat it. Because in any case, it is destined to leave a bitter taste in your mouth. This article will leave a bitter taste in your mouth!

As you know, the possibility of a Turkish-Greek war is on the rise. And again, as you know, what is predicted is that this will be a war based on air elements. Since the way of the mind is one, it is useful to examine the subject in detail. The tangible truth at first glance is this: A win in the air can be won not only with warplanes, but also with air defense capabilities. Air defense systems, on the other hand, as the name suggests, are mostly defensive, passive and capable of responding to influence. This leads us to the awareness of the next truth.

In NATO countries, air power is always tried to be balanced in supply, service, maintenance and modernization. In other words, you cannot keep this high-natured force in flight all the time. There is a "combat readiness" standard that also varies according to platforms. But if you are expecting a war, you can increase your combat readiness level by optimizing all your maintenance, supply and modernization projects according to this expectation. The actual equivalent of this is: NATO school air forces predominantly give priority to offensive (attack) power configuration. The biggest weakness of this offensive structure is the possibility of being caught on the ground and unprepared.

Greek Air Defense

Let's look at the Turkish-Greek tension with these thoughts. Let's say both countries keep their air power at the highest combat readiness rate. The Greek side will have the power to confine the Turkish side to its mainland with its air defense elements scattered over the Sea of ​​Islands. Turkish air power will wear out every time it crosses the Aegean and will have to pay "high tolls". Therefore, success for the Turkish side will only be possible to the extent that it is willing to suffer great losses. Without willingness to wear out, there will be no victory. In this case, the Turkish side will consider accepting the war in the air primarily on its own territory.

As someone who has been following Greece for quite a long time, I must state this. Numerically they have built really good air defense capability. These capabilities, most of which are outsourced, are also based on multiple source countries. So it has variety. In addition, the country employs a large number of barrel systems against not only air but also sea and land targets. We have before us a defense system architecture that can affect all altitude envelopes from low to high, numerically sufficient and designed in layers.

Time; It changes both sides, the world. In the past, I could say that I expected an air defense system that was quite strong in terms of individual awareness and response power, but weak in terms of network centricity and coordination. However, I believe that Greece has already overcome this weakness with the support of the USA, France and Israel. As can be seen in the example of Ukraine, which, although using the same almost exclusively Russian systems, was able to conduct successful operations with the active support of NATO countries, especially the USA and the UK. Despite relying on different sources, we should not think that the Greek air defense will be weak in terms of network centricity. It is reasonable to predict that these expectations will largely cover Turkey's SİHA / TİHA capabilities. In other words, it can be thought that we will encounter something different in this area from Syria, Libya, Ethiopia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine.

Being Ready for War

Military logic inspires a country besieged on more than one front to attack all fronts one by one and hit all its enemies before they come together, before they become the target of a coordinated effort. However, considering the siege around Turkey and the nature of the besiegers, it is very unlikely that this course of action will be realized. In addition, the reality we witnessed in Ukraine should not be forgotten. While the war is clearly coming, Russia insists that it is not joking, while the most current subject of the news and the public is military developments, Ukraine was caught off guard in a way. No one could grasp the gravity and seriousness of the situation, and the public did not give much thought to the possibility of war. Today, at the point of Turkish-Greek tension, a similar image is observed in the Turkish media. In addition, developments in the Turkish defense industry increase the self-confidence of the people and strengthen the possibility of being caught unprepared.

Example of Hürkuş in Defense Industry:

It is said that every option that we will encounter as an individual in life has its own advantages and disadvantages. This also applies to states. Turkey's efforts to create a long-term domestic and national defense industry are no exception to this. Because Turkey's expectations have profoundly affected its programs. I would like to explain this with the following example. Our country has purchased KT-1 trainer aircraft with turboprop engines from South Korea. However, the intensity of these planes being put into service, namely their combat readiness, remained low. As a solution, it was suggested to our air forces to operate the optional part of the purchase, and to provide the targeted number of sorties with more aircraft, albeit problematic. However, at this time, the national project of our country, Hürkuş, was being developed. When there is a domestic and national project that will do the same job and much better, how would it make sense to buy more of a problematic aircraft? However, we see that although a long time has passed, the Hürkuş aircraft, which were expected to be delivered to the Turkish Air Force as of June 1, 2018, could not be delivered even on June 1, 2022. Such delays also cause the inadequacy of sortie production in our military training aircraft to not be remedied for a long time, and therefore our ability to train pilots falls short of what it should be.

As seen in the previous example, it is natural for expectations to change programs. For example, if you are planning to produce your air-to-air missiles with your national resources in your own country, you will shelve the option of purchasing such air-to-air missiles. It will be good if there is no war until you produce your missiles safely and bring your stock to a sufficient level. But in the event of a war, it is certain that you will be in a menstrual weakness. As the Ukrainian war clearly demonstrated, a huge stockpile of war from Soviet times was depleted within three months. Ukraine has become fully dependent on foreign ammunition. It is possible to foresee that the same problem will be experienced on the Russian front in a few months. For this reason, a Greek general misunderstood, “The Turks do not have ammunition. They won't dare to fight." We have to evaluate the sentences impartially. Because it is a fact that we are not in a better position than our opponent in the field of mortar-to-air ammunition.

Supportability of Existing Weapon Systems:

In addition, it is necessary to take into account some issues that we have experienced in the recent past. For example, during the Afrin operation, .50 cal. we had trouble in the field of heavy machine gun ammunition. We bought from a friendly country, but it is obvious that we cannot guarantee that this situation will not happen again or that something similar will not happen. Again in the same period, we realized that we only employ sabot ammunition from the 120 mm tank guns that we had bitterly. In other words, we did not have an effective ammunition type against enemy infantry and buildings. We imported from South Korea. Then, our MKEK institution developed the necessary product and produced it locally. We can also exemplify the following. As you know, before NATO set the 7.62x51 mm cartridge as the standard, our entire army was using the M1 Garand infantry rifle donated by the USA. Although this rifle had the same diameter, it had a completely different cartridge, that is, it could not use the bullets of rifles like the G3. All M1 rifles, along with submachine guns such as the A4, were put into storage for use in combat and mobilization. In our country, this firecracker has not been produced naturally for many years. But this is the submachine gun ammunition used in all our old tanks, whether used as a fixed position at the outpost or in our active troops. In other words, it has been used extensively for many years. For this reason, it can be said that we cannot supply our reserve forces with enough ammunition in a war.

I think that in a possible Turkish-Greek war, the Turkish side will be treated as Russia and have a high probability of being exposed to embargo and sanctions. The party whose weapons and ammunition, which was treated as Ukraine and depleted, will be completed externally is Greece. In addition, the pandemic, the global chip crisis, and the global logistics problems have the potential to affect defense production, including advanced weapons and ammunition. In other words, it is certain that you will have trouble replacing your stock that was spent after the war, even with your domestic production lines that have managed to remain intact. In addition, no air power, including the Turkish air force, has the chance to consolidate all its forces into a single front. Because it has to be ready against many external enemies that are waiting for an opportunity.

Necessity of Air Defense Weapon Systems:

The number of "high value targets" that can be bombed on Turkish soil in a war is quite high. Possession comes with the responsibility of defense. Although we have started the production of our domestic and national air defense systems, it is obvious that it will take another 10-15 years to deliver them in sufficient numbers. Therefore, we must take into account that the Greek side, which has armed all the islands right under our noses, is also establishing its air defense parameters starting from within our borders.

Turkey attaches the necessary importance to both network-centered modern warfare technologies, the electronic dimension of the war, and unmanned combat vehicles. It is the right approach that our domestic and national technology focus should be focused on this framework. However, it is clear that the maturation process of weapon systems developed in every field and put into use/expected to be put into use will take time. In this respect, unmanned sea vehicles come to the fore in order to overcome the Greek forces in the Sea of ​​Islands. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), for which significant progress has already been made, are very limited in terms of carrying valuable combat loads, as well as airtime and energy production. However, if there are sea vehicles with the required volume, these restrictions can be overcome. In this way, not only the above and below water threats are met, but also the parameters of the homeland air defense can be moved to the depths of the enemy and beyond.

While Swinging Between Facts and Expectations:

Every change and transformation process is painful. Human history is full of proofs of this. Now, a major change is taking place in terms of our defense. We see that this is only covered in positive aspects, with sugar coated, biased approaches and mostly with some facts covered up in our press, and this is the way the defense industry officials say. However, due to this process, the problems and disadvantages that we are going through and that we will probably experience in the future are (knowingly or unknowingly) being escaped from the attention of the Turkish society.

Meanwhile, the flow of human history is in a process of change from the civilization of the industrial age to the civilization of the information age. It is likely that this will be accompanied by a transformation from abundance to scarcity, from global free trade to sterility. Another change that has been talked about recently is the expected major crisis in the financial markets. Because, it is considered that the economic order of voluntary money and borrowing is approaching its end. It is thought that as a result of climatic changes, a drought and, accordingly, global migrations may occur. In other words, it is obvious that countries (especially Turkey) will have to struggle with changes in the social fabric and order. A "time sensitive" trap has been set for Turkey in all these sequential pains. The loop of this trap around our neck is also moving towards the point of suffocation.

We can't be romantic, we shouldn't be. We should not underestimate our enemies, we should not raise our self-confidence to the limit of imagination. We should see the truth in all its positive and negative dimensions, and we should not avoid bitter words. We must plan, prepare, and implement decisively according to these facts. We must realize that victory can only be achieved at great cost, and that these costs can be our lives and our way of life. We should know that all the negligence and mistakes made in the past are kept on hold with the thought of a collective bill that will come at a time. Unfortunately, the draw of that time seems to have come down to our generation.

Conclusion and Reminder:

I would like to end my words by reminding a scene from the salvation series. A soldier who had fought on the fronts for many years during the Ottoman period is enlisted in the army as a warrant. Because the knife has rested on the bone and has called them to the country's mobilization. He hopes that the soldiers, who have been kneaded with the experience of these many wars, will teach the young people about the war. The expected happens and the conflict begins. One of the recruits is in position. Experienced sergeant is in trouble. Because, while the Greek artillery was beating the land, the machine guns were throwing fire and the soldiers were shooting bullets, this nation was able to put ten bullets in the cartridge. He also worries about the inadequacy of these ten bullets and the limitations of what he can do with it. Gedikli says: “My son, when you use ten bullets properly, they become ten vital birds. Let the enemy's weapons and ammunition be as plentiful as he wants. There's no point if I can't shoot you. Think about how you're going to use the ten bullets in your pocket. Imagine that there are ten vital birds.”

As the Turkish nation, we have less lead. We should see this. Our time is much less and much more valuable than our lead. Let's think about how we can use both. In the air, on land, in the sea and in cyberspace, let it be the vital bird we shoot. Not only military, but also social, commercial, economic, industrial, agricultural, political, etc. Let all our national power elements be shields that protect life against enemy plans. Stay healthy, enjoy and stay safe.