The Last Hybrid War: What is the Belarusian Crisis?

I think everyone is aware of the developments on the Belarus-Poland border. While the whole world was busy enough with the Ukraine crisis, when this crisis emerged unexpectedly, it surprised many countries, especially the EU. This situation has been an interesting experience in terms of reflecting the new dimension of the struggle between states today.

So what's going on at the Belarus-EU border?

In order to comment on this subject, it is useful to examine the subject from the beginning. First of all, I think it is appropriate to start by stating: It seems that the presidential election in Belarus caused all the events to begin. However, this is only the visible side. The event is a result of the developments in the world and especially in Europe after the Cold War. As ridiculous as it is to say that the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir to the start of World War I is absurd, it would be such a ridiculous theory to relate this event only to the election and the events that followed.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has ruled the country since 1994. According to the results of the election held on August 9, 2020, it was declared that Lukashenko won the election for the sixth time by getting 80% of the votes. However, after this election, where there were strong suspicions of fraud, events began to occur that showed that Lukashenko would not be able to protect his seat so easily.

Immediately after the election results were announced, street demonstrations broke out in the capital, Minsk. Opponents in the country and some polling officials demanded that Lukashenko resign, arguing that the results were manipulated. The security forces, who closed some streets of the city, responded very harshly to these demonstrations. Many people who participated in the demonstration and who did not participate but were known to be dissidents were detained.
Like any authoritarian ruler who could not afford to lose his seat, Lukashenko did not accept the mistakes of his administration and immediately began to develop a foreign power discourse. In this context, it was claimed by the government that the protesters were led from Poland, England and the Czech Republic, and it was said that a revolution would not be allowed in the country.

In fact, as much as the opposition was right in its claims, Lukashenko was just as right in this claim. He even said little. Not only the states he mentioned, but also other EU states and the USA were involved in this business in some way. Since the end of the Cold War, the EU and the USA (through NATO and bilateral agreements) were gaining positions against Russia by advancing rapidly from Europe, the Caucasus and Afghanistan-Central Asia directions. In doing so, they were attacking with weapons that no one could object to, such as democracy and human rights, without engaging in an armed conflict, and which the West considered to be their own values.

The EU and the USA used this weapon in the Middle East and North Africa at the same time. As a reflection of the cowboy culture, the USA did this by shooting, but the EU preferred to use its soft power. For years, the EU made economic aid to North Africa in return for democratic reform, making the environment suitable for the black winter called the Arab Spring. Thus, they succeeded in changing the governments in many countries, one using their hard power and the other using their soft power.

The same thing happened in the events of Georgia and Armenia in the Caucasus, but when Russia seized the event, the plans did not work. Westerners first made a colorful revolution in Georgia and brought pro-Western governments to power. When Saakashvili started to defy Russia by relying too much on the West, the Russian power took action quickly and invaded Ossetia and Abkhazia in a way that would once again terrify the world. The same situation resulted in Ukraine in a similar way. Russia, which could not interfere too much in North Africa, entered Syria strongly again with the Syrian civil war. In other words, Russia has started to show that it is strong enough to dare to use force for its global and regional interests.

The Belarus incident seems to be nothing but a new scene of this. As a matter of fact, the United States of America stated that they were worried about the protests as soon as the events started and invited the Belarusian government to "respect people's right to peaceful assembly and refrain from using force". The White House spokesman said that the detention of many protesters and journalists, with local independent observers denied access to polling stations and attempts to intimidate opposition candidates, disrupted the election process.

On the other hand, the President of the European Commission condemned the attacks on the demonstrators reacting to the election results and called for the correct counting of the votes. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Election Observation Organization also called for a repeat of the Belarusian elections. OSCE observers, on the other hand, reported massive violations of rights and laws before, during and after the presidential elections in Belarus.

OSCE monitors were not wrong. Because the election cam in May More than 33,000 people were detained from the start of the pandemic to New Year's Eve 2021, many of whom faced administrative arrests and large fines. If there is the EU and the USA somewhere, they have more NGOs than their official representatives. At the forefront of these NGOs are aid organizations and human rights organizations. I had the opportunity to personally see this in the north of Iraq in the 1990s. As a matter of fact, human rights activists took action in Belarus as they did in Iraq.
These people declared that journalists were pressured for their professional activities in the country. Because the country was mismanaged and much of what was said was true, these activists had no trouble finding both local evidence and evidence to corroborate what they were saying. As a matter of fact, the Belarusian Journalists Association announced that 19 journalists were isolated as suspects or accused in criminal cases, 477 journalists were detained and 97 journalists were arrested.

Now the cauldron had boiled and enough odor had emerged. But it was not possible for someone who has ruled a country with an iron fist for 25 years to give up immediately with protests inside and condemnation outside. It needed to be tightened a little more, and even this pressure should have created a threat on an individual basis and caused concern on the authorities who put pressure on the demonstrators. For this purpose, in December 2020, the US Treasury Department placed the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs and Director of the Criminal Police Service, Henadz Arkadziyevich Kazakevic, 3 police departments and the Central Election Commission on the sanction list, on the grounds that they played a role in the violent suppression of events in the Belarusian elections.

But this move didn't quite work. Because what you do is as important as when and where you do it. That's why there is a huge difference between operating against Saddam in the Middle East in the 90s and early 2000s, when Russia was in decline, and intervening in Belarus.
In the 1990s, Russia approached the West and even expressed its desire to join NATO. He also informed the EU and the USA that their progress in Europe and the Caucasus made him uneasy.

But these warnings were ignored. Therefore, rebounding when Putin came to power, Russia decided that it would be more effective to show a fist rather than beg for results. Because although it was very weak compared to the Soviet Union period, it was still one of the two largest nuclear powers in the world.

Thus, Russia began accusing the West of trying to limit itself and using hybrid warfare against itself. He did not hesitate to use threatening expressions against the rapid development of NATO and the EU towards their borders. He openly declared that he could not remain silent about the inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO. He showed what he could do with military operations in Georgia and Ukraine. It is even possible to say that he punished Armenia, led by Pashinyan, who sided with the West, by not protecting them in front of Azerbaijan.

This situation strengthened Lukashenko's hand. During his rule, Lukashenko saw that Russia changed the administration in Georgia and managed to keep the Assad and Baath regimes, whose days are now numbered, in power. He knew he would give her the same support, and even more. Because the location of his country and when the problem arose, it gave him a great advantage.
It was clearly revealed by the developments after the Cold War that the EU and the USA were trying to reach the borders of Brest Litovsk (the treaty signed between Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria and Russia on 3 March 1918). As a matter of fact, the eastern borders of Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia and Estonia today are almost the same as the Russian border drawn by the Brest-Litovsk agreement.

Since 1990, the West has been trying to drive the Russian threat, which had expanded to the west and south of the Danube River after World War II, to the east, that is, to the east of the Dnieper River, to never do the same again. Because throughout history, every Asian power that crossed the Dnieper line had advanced to the Danube line and then to Southeast Europe at the first opportunity. For this reason, the EU quickly included the Eastern European countries after the Cold War. The USA tried to do the same thing by taking these states into NATO. In this they have been largely successful. Only Ukraine and Belarus remained to reach the Dnieper line.

That is why Lukashenko acted by relying on Russian support from the very beginning of the events and received the support he needed. For this reason, instead of stepping back on Western pressure, he acted even more recklessly and casually. For example, on May 23, 2021, Ryanair, which was on the Athens-Vilnius flight, landed its passenger plane in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, on the pretext of a bomb threat, and detained the opposition journalist Roman Protasevic on the plane.
EU leaders called this action piracy and demanded the journalist's immediate release. But Lukashenko did not hesitate to counterattack by refusing this. For this purpose, Protasevich's decision to start an uprising in the country. He claimed that he was planning the war and accused the West of waging a multi-pronged war against him.

What he meant by all-round warfare was hybrid warfare. The concept of hybrid warfare, which has been used in all kinds of developments other than the classical understanding of war in military and academic circles but cannot be expressed in known military terms, and which is the fashionable term of our time, has become the most important argument used by the parties when blaming each other.

In fact, the next moves of the parties supported the existence of what is meant by hybrid warfare. The EU took the first step in this direction and EU countries closed the EU airspace to Belarusian airline companies. Thereupon, Belarus suspended the Readmission Agreement with the EU.
After that, the EU continued to take new steps rapidly. Exports of raw materials such as oil and fertilizer to Belarus were suspended. Thereupon, Lukashenko introduced an unexpected application of the indirect attitude concept within the context of hybrid warfare. The weapon used for this purpose was such that it would create an asymmetrical effect.

This weapon was immigrants. The Minsk administration has announced that it will no longer abide by the agreement to stop illegal immigration, claiming that its country has been deprived of the funds needed to control the flow of migrants. Lukashenko, in his statement at the end of May, announced that his country will not prevent immigrants from entering EU territory.
The most important aspect for success in strategy is to exploit the vulnerable sides of the enemy while avoiding the enemy's strengths and to concentrate all the power in one spot to hit the center of gravity. With this step, Lukashenko showed that he was determined to stay in power by using all the subtleties of the strategy.

This was a move that Europe never expected. So it created an asymmetrical effect. As a matter of fact, the debate that started with electoral corruption and human rights violations suddenly evolved into the immigration problem. This showed that the human rights violation card does not only belong to the EU, but can also be used against the EU. Because the slightest measure of coercion against immigrant groups, including children and women, would provide invaluable propaganda arguments for Belarus.

It is difficult to understand why Europe did not expect such a move and was raided. Because it was not the first time that the EU faced such threats and practices. Turkey, in order to force the EU to give the necessary support for the immigrants in 1915, turned a blind eye to the increase in the permeability at the borders and succeeded in raising the whole of Europe. Although Turkey took a step back after the EU made the necessary moves, it has not hesitated to put on the table the threat that it might open its borders at every opportunity since then.

The EU probably did not expect that Belarus would face such a threat as it is so far away from the geographies that are experiencing crisis and large migration movements. However, considering today's transportation possibilities, it turned out that this is an erroneous assessment.
Lukashenko did not have to make much effort to announce this statement, which was reflected on the television screens. The press spread this news everywhere. Thereupon, Syrian and Afghan immigrants in Turkey and many people from northern Iraq and elsewhere began to prepare their backpacks. Closing his passport, he queued for plane tickets to Belarus. Belarus did not give them any difficulties in terms of visa and so on. Thus, a large number of immigrants began to flow into Belarus.

In the face of this threat, the EU did not take a step back as it did against Turkey. On the contrary, it continued to oppress Belarus with new measures. On 21 June 2021, it decided to impose restrictive measures on 78 Belarusian people and 8 organizations due to serious human rights violations and the landing of the Ryanair plane. The European Council added 7 people and 1 more organization to the list of sanctions due to the detention of journalist Roman Protasevic.

These sanctions imposed by the EU also included some business people close to Lukashenko. The list of sanctions included many judges, prosecutors, bureaucrats, senior security officers and deputies, as well as Lukashenko's son, Dimitry Lukashenko. Among the listed companies were the state-owned OJSC Belaz, one of the world's largest truck manufacturers, the automobile manufacturer OJSC Minsk, and NNK, the only private company authorized to export petroleum products from Belarus. The sanctions included measures such as travel restrictions and asset freezes.

In addition, the BA countries have agreed that Berlarus will not be given new financial loans. In the statements made; It was stated that a series of economic sanctions will be prepared and these sanctions will cause great harm to the Belarusian economy. With these economic sanctions; European companies and citizens are prohibited from investing in Belarus, buying bonds from that country, EU banks from providing investment services and issuing export loans for Belarus.
Sanctions apply to economic areas and areas of particular importance for Belarus. focused on the income of the regime, and Lukashenko was given the message that this business is irreversible. In addition, the EU has prepared a list on which products will be banned from exporting to Belarus. This list included everything necessary for a strict arms embargo, including communications equipment and shotguns. Restrictions were also imposed on the import of tobacco, petroleum and petroleum products, and potassium hydrate (fertilizer), the most important export product of Belarus.

Thereupon, Lukashenko once again and more seriously put the immigration card on the table. In his speech on July 6, he declared that after the Western attitudes towards Russia and Belarus, they could no longer take people fleeing the war themselves. Mentioning the name of Russia alongside his immigration card, he seemed to imply that there was a power he trusted behind him and that they could not bring him to his knees with the support of this power.

In addition, by being diplomatic cunning, he claimed that the influx of immigrants did not increase upon his own statements, and that Belarus, like Turkey, is a country that welcomes immigrants in its country and deals with the burdens of this. Lukashenko, who said that they would not keep the refugees who came to Belarus to go to Europe, said that they would close the borders with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine and that Belarus would become a settlement for refugees from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Tunisia. He said they were wrong. According to the statement; It was reported that the immigrants did not come to stay in Belarus, but wanted to go to an enlightened, warm, comfortable Europe.

Upon these statements, the influx of immigrants to the EU borders increased even more. Some of these immigrants managed to enter EU territory. This situation caused panic in the EU and despite the occupation of some of the Ukrainian lands, security measures that were not taken at the borders began to be implemented even against the Russian army. First, Lithuania started building a wire wall on the Belarusian border to prevent immigrants from entering its territory. On August 23, Poland increased the number of soldiers on its border with Belarus and announced that it would build a 2.5-meter-high wire wall on the border.

These countries have not only increased their border security. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia accused Belarus of a "hybrid attack". Also, in a joint statement, Lukashenko deliberately used it as a weapon by sending migrants, mostly from Afghanistan and Iraq, to ​​the borders, thus avenging EU sanctions. They accused me of trying to get it.

They also called on the United Nations Organization to report that using immigrants to create instability in neighboring countries is a clear violation of the law. They also claimed that this move was a hybrid attack against the entire EU. The Polish prime minister, on the other hand, claimed that the attempt of immigrants from the Middle East to enter Poland through Belarus was a dirty game played by Lukashenko and the Kremlin against EU sanctions.

Poland announced that from September 2, it has completely closed all entrances to a three-kilometer-wide zone on the 418-kilometer-long border with Belarus. Poland, which has deployed thousands of soldiers on its border and built a wire wall, has been criticized by European media outlets, human rights associations and aid organizations for not allowing anyone but its own citizens living here to enter this region. However, ignoring these criticisms, the Polish parliament approved the extension of the ban and the state of emergency imposed on October 1 for another 60 days.

Aid agencies then accused Warsaw of violating the right of asylum seekers to apply for asylum under international law. They said that due to the state of emergency, journalists and aid workers were not allowed into the region, so they could not follow what was happening in the region. But Poland did not take these accusations into account. Because the influx of immigrants had reached its highest level since the events began. While 120 immigrants were trying to cross the border in the same period a year ago, this figure increased to seven thousand in September-October.
Since the beginning of November, news of humanitarian tragedy among refugees began to be heard, as the weather got colder. The Belarusian administration announced that they have established facilities for health, subsistence and shelter and assigned personnel to the border. With the news and images from the region, it started to carry out psychological operations against EU countries on the Belarusian border. The message was very simple and clear. “The EU, which speaks to us about democracy and human rights, does not care about human rights when it comes to itself and condemns many helpless people, including children, to cold, hunger and death.”
Although this move did not change the attitude of EU countries, it had an impact on some aid organizations. Aid agencies accused Warsaw of violating the rights of asylum seekers under international law. These events further aggravated the situation. On the night of 1 November, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported some armed and uniformed persons from Belarusian territory. He warned the Belarusian Charge d'Affaires on the grounds that they violated the border. Belarusian border officials immediately declared that these allegations were unfounded.

In response to this tension and increasing refugee pressure, Poland passed a law on November 3, which stipulates the construction of a new wall on the Belarusian border. According to the law, it was foreseen to build a wall of 5.5 meters high on the border. It was decided to complete this obstacle, which will cost 350 million Euros, by the summer of 2022. Motion sensors and surveillance systems would also be used with this barrier, which would close half of the border.
Upon these developments, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a harsh language to the Polish Charge d'Affaires in Minsk on November 4 that it is unacceptable to increase the tension on the border. In the statement made on the subject, it was stated that Belarus is ready to solve all kinds of problems within the framework of mutual respect.

Realizing that the situation is getting more and more dire and that it is not possible to solve the problem in a short time, Lithuania started the construction of a steel wall against the influx of immigrants on the border with Belarus on 5 November. The height of the wall was planned to be 3.5 meters. In addition, half a meter high barbed wire would be placed on the wall.
Lithuania has allocated 152 million Euros for the wall, which it plans to build 500 kilometers by September 2022. The EU has also announced that it will provide economic support to support the construction of these barriers on the Belarusian border. However, despite these measures, there was a great increase in the number of immigrants trying to cross the border in November. This has further increased the tension between Belarus and its neighbors.

Poland accused Belarus of trying to start an armed conflict. Lukashenko denied this, while Belarusian border guards accused Poland of piling military equipment on the border and preventing aid from reaching refugees. Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the other hand, announced that they warned the Polish side not to use provocations against Belarus to justify the illegal use of force against unarmed people, including many children and women.
Upon these developments, NATO Secretary General declared that Belarus's use of immigrants as a hybrid tactic is unacceptable and stated that NATO stands in solidarity with its NATO allies in the region. Thereupon, Russia felt the need to support Belarus.

Kremlin Spokesperson held a press conference and stated that they were worried about the developments on the Belarus-Polish border, they hoped that the problem would not become a threat to Russia, and they saw that Belarusian experts are working on the issue in a very responsible manner. Kremlin Spokesperson also said that they are in close contact with Belarus.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that the culprit of the crisis on the Belarus-Poland border was the actions of the West in the Middle East. Stating that they believe that the problems should be resolved in accordance with international human rights principles, Lavrov emphasized that the roots of the current situation are the policies pursued by NATO and EU countries in the Middle East and North African countries by trying to impose their own understanding of democracy.

Lavrov also stated that double standards should not be applied to the countries of origin for immigrants to go to Europe. When immigrants wanted to leave Turkey, he asked why the EU did not help Belarus, despite allocating funds for them to stay on Turkish soil. He wanted Europe to take responsibility for its own words and actions.

On November 9, the Kremlin announced that there was a telephone conversation between Putin and Lukashenko. During their meeting, the leaders expressed their concern at the concentration of Polish regular army units on the border. They evaluated the situation on the borders of Belarus-Poland and Belarus-Lithuania. The phone call also noted that the concentration of Polish regular army units on the border is worrying.

Shortly after this meeting, Lukashenko described Warsaw's dispatch of Leopard tanks to the border to combat migrants as blackmail. Noting that taking up arms in the modern world means the same as death and suicide, and that Russia will be involved in the situation, Lukashenko said that Russia is a nuclear power and this situation could lead to serious developments.

Upon these statements, the Polish Prime Minister claimed that the planner of the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Polish border was Putin. On 10 November, the Kremlin Spokesperson stated that the Polish Prime Minister's statement that he held Russia responsible for the tension on the border was unacceptable. The spokesperson stated that the EU itself is responsible for the crisis and that European countries have shown that they cannot even support their own human values ​​with their attitudes towards immigrants.

Putin and Lukashenko had previously signed a document titled the State of the Union War Doctrine between the two countries. this waist Based on the past, Russia sent two warplanes on a patrol flight over Belarus to emphasize its support. In a written statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, it was stated that two Russian TU-22M3 bombers made a patrol flight in the Belarusian airspace.

At the joint press conference with his Belarusian counterpart, the Russian Foreign Minister expressed his hope that Europeans will act responsibly so that they do not find themselves in a very dangerous vortex.

EU countries, whose sanctions on Belarus were not effective due to the close support of Russia, decided to make new initiatives in this direction. On November 11, they discussed imposing sanctions against airlines transporting immigrants to Belarus. Upon the news that the EU is considering imposing sanctions on the Russian airline company Aeroflot in this context, Russia said, "This would be crazy!" made a strong statement.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko made a statement as if he wanted it not to be forgotten that the Russian planes were in his country and said that they should monitor the situation at the border, that these planes can also carry nuclear weapons, but that they are only watching the border at the moment. In a written statement, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense also stated that the Polish troops increased the military build-up on the border, and that on the other hand, its own military units had to take the necessary measures, either alone or together with strategic ally Russia.
Pointing out that it would not be possible to call Poland's gathering of tanks, air defense missile systems, heavy weapons and 15,000 soldiers on the border as a reaction against immigrants, it was argued that these were more like attack groups.

In a statement about the increase in sanctions and military measures at the EU borders, Lukashenko stated that the West should consider the natural gas shipment to Europe via Belarus before imposing sanctions on Belarus, "We are warming Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border. What if we cut off the natural gas?" said.

On November 13, while the migrant crisis on the border between Poland and Belarus continued, the EU must have realized that it would not get any results by putting pressure on Belarus due to Russian support, so it made some attempts to solve the problem at its source. In this context, Turkey and the European Union agreed on a series of measures.

Accordingly, Turkey would establish a tighter control mechanism to reduce the number of immigrants going to Belarus. Within the framework of the agreement, it was decided to restrict the citizens of Iraq, Syria and Yemen from flying to Belarus via Turkey. In addition, in order to reduce the pressure of immigrants piling up on the Polish border and wanting to go to EU countries, Turkey would end the sale of one-way tickets on Belarus flights. It was stated that Turkish Airlines' Middle East networks will also be prevented from being used by Belarusian National Airline Belavia.

Following the news that Turkey will take measures with the pressure of the EU, Belarus, National Airline Belavia has issued a statement. In the statement, it was announced that citizens of Iraq, Yemen and Syria will not be allowed to take flights from Turkey, as of Friday, in line with Ankara's request.

However, the Turkish side informed the EU officials that it is difficult to deal with this problem. Turkish authorities noted that most migrants have full flight and identity documents, so it is difficult to stop these people. The European Union, on the other hand, announced that it is preparing to blacklist airline companies that bring immigrants trying to cross the Polish border to Belarus and to coordinate sanctions against the Minsk administration with the United States.
On November 14, the discussions began to take on a new dimension. Because the British chief of staff declared that it is necessary to prepare for war with Russia and that NATO must be ready for it. On the other hand, Putin said that they have nothing to do with immigrants, that Europe claims that Russia is behind every problem, and that they should give up on this.

Claiming that the USA and Europe caused this problem, Putin said that the immigrants came from Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destabilized as a result of the US intervention. Putin also accused Polish security forces of inflicting violence on immigrants at the border. The Russian leader stated that he hopes Lukashenko and Merkel will handle the crisis and that the migrants mainly want to go to Germany, Moscow has nothing to do with this situation.

With these and similar statements throughout November, the problem continued without a solution. Some immigrants, who were in a difficult situation with the suppression of the winter cold and whose hopes of going to Europe were dashed due to the measures taken at the borders, started to return to their countries. However, many immigrants continue to live in tents on the border between Belarus and the EU under difficult conditions. This problem has the potential to attract many states, which are spread over a wide region, including Turkey, where the immigrants come from.

As a result; thin above Considering all the developments, it is understood that the crisis actually has no direct connection with the Belarusian presidential elections or the immigration problem. The main source of the problem is the tension created by the US and EU's strategy of encircling Russia and limiting it in its central territories after the Cold War.

After the Cold War, Russia has been trying to stop the EU and the USA, which are rapidly coming towards it through Afghanistan-Central Asia, the Caucasus and Eastern Europe, for a long time. With the withdrawal of the EU and the USA from Afghanistan, it seems to have achieved its goals in this region. Acting in cooperation with Iran and Armenia in the Caucasus, Russia, unable to prevent Georgia from approaching the West, occupied Ossetia and Abkhazia and neutralized it, that is, prevented the spread of Western influence to the North Caucasus. It also hindered Armenia's rapprochement with the West by not preventing Azerbaijan in Karabakh in 2020.

Only Eastern Europe remains, and Eastern Europe is very important to Russia. Because Ukraine and Belarus are very close to Moscow. On the other hand, if Ukraine gets out of control, it will cause great problems for Russia to have a navy in the Black Sea. Because Crimea is the only region suitable for the Russian navy in the Black Sea and Crimea is Ukrainian territory. In other words, Ukraine is important not only for the Russian presence in Eastern Europe, but also for Russia's access to the warm seas.

Russia, which tried to solve the Ukraine problem with sometimes pro-Russian and sometimes pro-Western governments during the long struggles, realized that it could not turn Ukraine from its path, and occupied the Crimea and two industrial zones, which are part of the Ukrainian lands, as in Georgia. After that, the only state Russia could rely on and rely on in Eastern Europe was Belarus. Because those in power in this country need the support of Russia in order to maintain their power. For this reason, Russia has supported Lukashenko since the beginning of the crisis.
This situation has made the field of struggle a hybrid environment, as in Iraq and Syria. Because the regular army units in the fight, border security, deterrence and so on. While it was used for various purposes, psychological operations, propaganda, indirect attitude practices and asymmetrical operations also had an important place in the struggle. For this purpose, the use of immigrants as the main element of the struggle has been the most creative asymmetrical attack method since the attack on the twin towers with civilian aircraft.

The world is now evolving towards a multi-actor balance of power. These powers possess nuclear weapons as well as advanced conventional weapons. Moreover, they have begun to spread into space. This situation created a balance of terror among states, as in the Cold War period. For this reason, the struggles are experienced in the form of hybrid wars and struggles rather than classical wars. The Belarusian crisis is the latest and perhaps the most interesting example of this.