The war is about to spread all over Europe: US Unleashes HIMARS, Denmark Unleashes F-16s Against Russians... What Does the West Want to Do?

Among the American-made multi-barrel rocket launcher (MLRS) systems, two systems stand out in particular. The first is the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and the second is the M270 MLRS (Multi Lanchers Rocket System). In fact, although these two systems use almost the same ammunition, HIMARS is known as a lighter and modernised equivalent of the M270 MLRS. However, HIMARS, which has achieved remarkable successes in the Russian-Ukrainian War in the last few months and stands out more than the M270 MLRS system because it is a mobile system; During the hot clashes between the two sides in the Kharkiv region in recent days, it can be used against various military targets in Russian territory close to this region, as well as in Ukraine. In a way, this American step, which has been going on for more than two years, points to a serious escalation when considered together with Denmark's similar decision for F-16s.

What is HIMARS?

In the 1980s, the HIMARS concept was designed to fulfil the US Army's need for a lightweight multi-barreled rocket launcher system. HIMARS was developed by Lockheed Martin's Missile and Fire Control unit (Loral Vought Systems). The first tests of the prototype system were carried out at the White Sands missile firing range in April 1991. As a result of successful results, the serial production phase started in 2002. In 2005, HIMARS was included in the inventory of the US Marine Corps, and system improvements continued in line with the requests of the users.

In the event of a crisis anywhere in the world that puts American interests at risk, strategic deployment and mobility capabilities in the operational area are considered important for the Pentagon's rapid response. For this reason, the focus of the developers of HIMARS was that the platform should be wheeled and have a high mobility speed. The ability of the HIMARS system to be rapidly transported from one place to another by C-130 Hercules and/or C-17 aircraft was also important for mobility within the scope of strategic deployment. In line with this need, it was adopted to create HIMARS by integrating proven systems with each other. Thus, this product, called the M142 HIMARS, started to appear in the operational areas as an MNRA that was given mobility by integrating Lockheed's M270 MLRS artillery system on BAE Systems' FMTV field vehicle. It has been used effectively in operations in Afghanistan and in Syria against ISIS since 2011.

How Does the HIMARS System Run?

Three personnel work in the HIMARS system. The crew sits together in the cabin of the wheeled vehicle. The driver of the vehicle sits on the left, while the gunner and the commander of this three-man team share the large seat on the right. The system is essentially a fire control module with a computer-based fire control system, designed as a compact mechanism where one person is sufficient when necessary. In this case, the same person can use the vehicle, stabilise the vehicle at the appropriate location, aim and fire at targets. A loading station has been designed to allow a single soldier to load and unload the system.

While the M270 MLRS uses two containers with six launchers each, in HIMARS, it was deemed sufficient to integrate the MLRS into the system as a single container with six launchers in line with mobility and portability requirements. As a result of this arrangement, the HIMARS M142 has an empty weight of 29,800 pounds (13,517 kg) and a combat loaded weight of 35,800 pounds (16,238 kg). Since the MLRS M-270 MLRS M270 MNRA system in its classical structure weighs approximately 57,544 pounds (26,101 kg), the two systems have emerged in a very different structure in terms of portability. In short, when we think of the MLRS M270, we think of ‘cumbersomeness’, while when we think of HIMARS, we think of ‘agility’. As a result, while the lighter HIMARS can be carried on C-130 aircraft, larger transport aircraft, C-141 or C-5s, are needed to carry the M270s.

HIMARS and Ukraine

HIMARS, a powerful rocket system, can be made ready to fire in a very short time. HIMARS, which can launch rockets and/or missiles of various types and weights, can be ready to fire within 20 seconds. Subsequently, all six rockets loaded on the system can be launched within 45 seconds. If necessary, the crew can reload the rockets into the launch capsule within 4 to 5 minutes with the help of the integrated crane, which is part of the system and carried by the MTVR MK37 resupply vehicle.

Among the ammunition loaded into HIMARS, GPS-guided rockets and/or projectiles stand out because they provide the system with precision strike capability. It is known that GPS-guided rockets, each of which costs approximately 100,000 USD, have very high accuracy. The Russians also have a system similar to HIMARS. However, the GPS guidance capability makes HIMARS a more effective weapon compared to the Russian Smerch missiles. When the precise coordinates of stationary targets are loaded into the HIMARS fire control system, it can strike the exact centre of the target. However, HIMARS cannot hit mobile, moving targets as effectively.

It can also fire one GPS-guided ATACMS (M39A1) missile weighing 1.7 tonnes, also known as tactical missiles. When this missile is fired, HIMARS can hit targets at a distance of 186.4 miles (about 300 kilometres), which could have some strategic implications, as the Ukrainian Army is doing these days. Previously, 20 HIMARS batteries were delivered to Ukraine as part of American aid. However, the systems provided were low-range (around 70-80 km) HIMARS batteries. In reality, even these were used as batteries with a range of 50 miles (80 kilometres), far beyond the 24 miles (38 kilometres) range of howitzers.

Fixed targets such as Russian supply depots and helicopter bases on the front line, in Donbas and Kherson, and especially on the Crimean peninsula, suddenly became easy prey for the Ukrainians thanks to HIMARS. The Russians began to suffer heavy casualties. In order to survive these attacks, it was observed that the Russians endeavoured to move their supply depots, support units and air bases out of the HIMARS range. Although the use of HIMARS did not change the course of the war in eastern Ukraine, it turned out to be a fact that it significantly wore down the Russian army and seriously slowed down its progress in some areas.

Now the United States has developed an approach that implies that it authorises the use of longer-range HIMARS batteries against targets on Russian territory. I believe that Putin's reactions to the change in Biden's attitude in recent days, which brought the war to Russian territory, should be met with understanding. Moreover, it is only a matter of time before the F-16 fighter jets, which have been modernised to a certain extent and given to the use of Ukrainian pilots trained in Western countries, will also appear on the scene. Moreover, as the arrival of the F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine is imminent, Denmark has announced that it has authorised Kiev to use the promised F-16 fighter jets to strike targets inside Russia.

In order not to let the Ukrainian front fall, the Ukrainians must be supported at all costs with striking weapons against the Russians, and in this context, we are witnessing that the restrictions imposed on the Ukrainian government since the beginning of the war, such as not disposing of weapons supplied to Russian territory and not flying donated platforms, are being lifted one by one by the Western countries. Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has been pursuing a common policy of limiting the use of the weapons given to it by most of its Western allies to use only within Ukraine, for fear of escalation of the war. This policy has now changed. Denmark has become the first country to allow Ukraine to use its F-16s against the Russians as it wishes.

Previously, Germany, Canada, France, France, Poland and Sweden had also declared that they had lifted the restriction on the use of their weapons against Russian territory. This is the first authorisation in aircraft size. In the same way, the US has tried to ease Kiev's hand within the scope of the use of HIMARS batteries to contribute to the advanced defence of the Karkiv region.

What Will Moscow Do Now? Is the war spreading to a wider region?

The West, while almost totally supporting Kiev in the Russian-Ukrainian War, took steps to encourage Kiev to take the war to Russian territory for the first time. ‘Possible escalation’ scenarios in relation to this war are being discussed in many places.

Denmark's F-16 decision immediately mobilised Moscow and Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin said that the decision ‘could lead to an uncontrolled development’ in the war. Asked whether he was afraid of a possible escalation due to this move, Danish Defence Minister Rasmussen said that he was ‘not worried at all.’ I am of the opinion that Rasmussen would not have been in such an irresponsible attitude and would not have spoken out of proportion if the West did not want a calculated escalation. I wonder how history will ask him how he will explain his emphasis that ‘if we are talking about the risk of an actual attack on our territory, this is not something I am worried about’ if the war envelops the whole of Europe.

Russian early warning radar systems could be hit from the air by F-16s. To prevent this, there is talk that Moscow may resort to asymmetric capabilities, tactical nuclear weapons, to stop Kiev.

Meanwhile, it is important to note that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned yesterday that the United States ‘could face deadly consequences if it does not heed Moscow's warnings not to allow Ukraine to use weapons provided by Washington to hit targets inside Russia, underestimating the seriousness of Russia's response. Putin has said that Ukraine would need the direct support of the West for possible incursions deep into Russia, which would involve the deployment of Western satellites, intelligence and military capabilities, which would mean the start of a war between Russia and Western countries.

I find it significant that Vladimir Putin also said last week that NATO countries are playing with fire and risking a deeper global conflict. However, Putin's words are probably ignored by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, or he continues to speak as if they are ignored. Stoltenberg said last week that NATO has the right to help Ukraine defend its right to self-defence and that this does not make NATO a party to the conflict.

Moscow continues to issue a series of warnings to Western countries about the risk of a serious escalation, but I am concerned that for some reason the West is not taking these warnings seriously.

Conclusion

It is known that the unit price of HIMARS, which can be defined as the most advanced multi-barrel rocket launcher system in the US inventory and which can fire at much longer ranges than conventional howitzers and cannons, is around 5.1 million dollars. In addition to the US Army (including the Marine Corps), Jordan, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Romania also have this mobile and agile system. The Netherlands, Lithuania, Morocco, Poland and Australia have also signed supply contracts with the United States to purchase this system. In addition, the Ukrainian Army is also using HIMARS as part of US arms aid, and recently the longest-range version of this system, the 300 km HIMARS, has been placed under Kiev's control. Moreover, Washington has declared that it is favourable to the use of HIMARS in striking Russian bases and logistics facilities close to this region in order to stop the Russian army in order to prevent the fall of Karkiv.

Ukraine has long argued that restrictions on its use of Western-supplied weapons severely limit its ability to defend itself. Last weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyiy expressed his gratitude to Washington for allowing Kiev to use the US-supplied HIMARS system in the Kharkiv region. Zelenskyiy must feel the same gratitude for the Netherlands. As of yesterday, the Danish Defence Minister also declared that the F-16 fighter jets they had donated for Kiev's use could be used to bomb Russian territory if necessary. Along with the United States, Germany, Canada, France, Poland and Sweden have already lifted the restrictions on the use of their weapons against Russian territory. I expect other countries to join this bandwagon, although I do not approve of it.

In this respect, Turkey has developed an attitude that differs from the West. After the NATO Informal Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Prague last week, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said: ’As Turkey, we support the continuation of assistance to Ukraine, we support Ukraine to be sufficient in terms of deterrence, but we do not want NATO to be a part of this war. We think that the balance between these two should be observed by NATO countries and NATO as an organisation, and this is a generally accepted view. That line needs to be kept. It is one thing to support Ukraine to ensure its territorial integrity and liberate its territory, but it is another issue for NATO to be a party to this war. This would bring about crises of greater regional expansion. Turkey fully supports Ukraine...’ I read this statement as a clear policy statement to Brussels, Kiev and Moscow. This military-political strategy pursued by Turkey is in line with its position since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian War. However, I consider that the NATO policy that Turkey emphasises and would like to see is changing. I see the US decision on HIMARS and the Danish decision on F-16s as precursor steps to the critical decision to be taken against Russia at the NATO summit in Washington in July. Never before has the prospect of the expansion of this war increased so markedly. I see it as a historic responsibility for the Erdoğan government to continue to cling, albeit somewhat ambivalently, to the Great Policy that will save Turkey from being part of a major war, just as the Inönü administration did in the Second World War.

References

Joe Saballa, “Denmark Allows Ukraine Use of F-16s for Strikes Inside Russia”, The Defense Post, 3 Haziran 2024, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/03/denmark-ukraine-f16-russia/

Stavros Atlamazoglou. “Putin Has A Problem: U.S. HIMARS Are Rocking Russian Forces In Ukraine”. 1945, 4 Temmuz 2022. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/putin-has-a-problem-u-s-himars-are-rocking-russian-forces-in-ukraine/

Military.com, M142 HIMARS, https://www.military.com/equipment/m142-himars

Skyler Bernards. “HIMARS: A Comprehensive Guide to High Mobility Artillery Rocket System”. Executivegoverment. 13 Ekim 2023. https://executivegov.com/articles/himars-a-comprehensive-guide-to-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-system/

Reuters, “Russia warns US against 'fatal' miscalculation in Ukraine”, 3 Haziran 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-us-against-fatal-miscalculation-ukraine-2024-06-03/

ANKA Haber Ajansı, “Hakan Fidan: NATO’nun nasıl Ukrayna’da işgale karşı gösterdiği bir duruş var. Aynı şekilde Filistin’de de göstermesi gerekiyor”. 31 Mayıs 2024. https://ankahaber.net/haber/detay/hakan_fidan_natonun_nasil_ukraynada_isgale_karsi_gosterdigi_bir_durus_var_ayni_sekilde_filistinde_de_gostermesi_gerekiyor_182168