What are the Possible Implications of the 2023 Scenarios in Ukraine forcing Europe to Change?

Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky announced a peace plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and restoring regional and global stability. At the recently concluded G20 Summit in Indonesia, Zelensky urged world leaders to support his peace plan to end the war. Nowadays, Zelensky's administration has made a new breakthrough. A United Nations-brokered peace summit at the end of the first year of the war. Moscow will be invited to this summit if Russia agrees to be held accountable at the international war crimes tribunal. Of course, this is unlikely. Moscow has found it necessary to say either our demands are met or the war continues.

There are various scenarios about what will happen in 2023 regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. These are summarized as follows:

- Scenario 1: Russia's offensive in the spring will be decisive. 50 thousand newly recruited soldiers are at the front. The other 250 thousand are being trained to go to the front next year.

- Scenario 2: Ukraine reclaims territory lost to the Russians. The timing of the Ukrainian victory will be determined by the speed with which NATO can deliver new military offensive weapons (tanks, airplanes, long-range missiles).

- Scenario 3: There is no end in sight. At the end of 2023, the war will probably still be going on. In past wars, where the US made miscalculations in Vietnam and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, this was the only way the conflict ended. The domestic political circumstances in the country that made the miscalculation have changed and an exit, "honorable" or not, has become the only option. 

- Scenario 4: No outcome other than Russia's defeat. The momentum in the war is now in favor of Ukraine and this war will most likely end in a Ukrainian victory in 2023. The war will go down in history as a test of determination and logistics.

- Scenario 5: The Russian war of attrition against Ukraine will continue. There will be no significant new developments.

While discussing these and similar scenarios, it should be remembered that Zelensky, who had earlier traveled to Washington on a US military plane, called for "absolute victory" over Russia in his speech to Congress. 

According to some, Biden invited Zelensky to Washington to make such a call. This show of determination was needed. Talking peace could have meant that American aid would no longer be needed. The war needed to be on the agenda to ensure that American support for Ukraine against Russia would pass through Congress without any problems. Zelensky did just that. He declared Russia a "terrorist state" and signaled to continue the war. Biden thus had the opportunity to make a strong promise that the US would support Ukraine "for as long as it takes". All of this was in support of the prediction that 2023 will be another year in which the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue. The deployment of Patriot batteries was a product of a parallel idea.

When the US withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, Biden declared the end of the "forever war". Now he does not hesitate to support a new "forever war" with devastating consequences all over the world. European nations, for their part, fear the continuation of the war and especially Putin's possible use of nuclear weapons. For the sake of Ukraine, Washington may be considering starting a third world war, but first it must convince the Europeans. Europe is not at all ready for a third catastrophe. Biden also said that Europeans do not want to go to war with Russia.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is too important for Europeans to be left to the US alone. This is because the future of Europe, its geostrategic restructuring and ultimately its new security architecture are being shaped according to the course of this war.

Because of the resistance of the Ukrainian people, the European continent has seen up close that it can defend its own values and its own geography. The US military and economic aid to Ukraine reminded Europeans of the Balkan syndrome of the 1990s. It was then clear that Europe was unable or unwilling to do anything to stop the war between the new states that emerged from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia. And now, without the United States, Ukraine, which is part of Eastern Europe, is once again relying on American aid to support every aspect of their struggle against the Russians.

Europe has now realized that it has to transform. Ukraine is dictating this to the European countries. Eastern European countries, led by Poland, are joining forces with all European Union member states to confront Russia. Central and Western European countries realize that they have to support this unity of forces, that the political, economic and geographical integrity of Europe depends on it. That is why this war is playing a transformative role, it is a catalyst for Europeans. Europeans are realizing that together they have to confront the destructive actions of the invading Putin's armies. If Europe fails to show the will to stand up to Putin, perhaps Putin will succeed in reconquering Ukraine. Then he will be able to bring Eastern Europe back into his sphere of influence. 

This war broke out before Europe's political discussions on Ukraine were mature enough. While Europe was stalling, Putin's Russia became the playmaker in the east once again. Now Europe needs to find the right answer to the question of what will happen when the war is over. Depending on whether Ukraine ends the war with a complete victory or a complete defeat, the EU and NATO will re-establish contact with this country in a very different way. Undoubtedly, the prize for a victorious Ukraine will be unquestioned membership of both the EU and NATO. But what if it loses?

This is where Europe's fear comes to the fore. Fear of Russia has not only removed questions about NATO's future, it has also opened the door to new members such as Sweden and Finland. However, the key point here is this: Will Europe rearm or will it continue to rely on NATO, that is, on the United States? 

If Europe fails to truly rearm, the future of the EU and NATO will once again come into question. This would justify the negative comments that the alliance institutions are hollow and render them irrelevant.

The EU in particular is too weak an international organization to survive on 'soft power' alone. Does Europe need a continuation of the existing structure or is there a need for an EU that will marry 'hard power'? The content and breadth of the answer to these questions will reshape the future of the EU. Therefore, today Europe is at a turning point. It is facing the reality on the ground. The political map of Europe may be about to change. And the course of transatlantic relations may also undergo a major change.

Once Ukraine is victorious, it will knock on the doors of the EU and NATO with a new identity and self-confidence, as a free nation and nation-state that has achieved this at great cost. Together with the Eastern European countries that support Ukraine's freedom, Ukraine's importance and weight will grow throughout Europe. While a victorious Ukraine will take its place in Europe with the magnitude of its sacrifice, both the US and the countries on NATO's eastern flank, which played a key role in this victory, will have a much more effective power and influence in the EU and NATO.

Putin's all-out madness against Ukraine has started an irreversible process. It will not only shift Europe's center of gravity to the northeast, but also shatter the notion that Eastern Europe was once seen as the West's backyard.

The war in Ukraine is not over yet. It is likely to continue into 2023. But during this war, Europe will continue to face a major change. In fact, Europe has already changed. Isn't even the armament of Germany a leading indicator of this change?