What are the Tactical Advantages of a Counterfeit Version of a Missile?

Hisar O+ missile

As we know, we are in a feverish national effort in the field of air defense systems. In this context, we see that the Hisar and Siper missile families produced by Roketsan stand out. This weapon family, which is effective at low, medium and high altitudes, is designed according to the requirements of a classic layered air defense system and includes elements compatible with network-centric operations.

Those who read my articles will immediately notice. For a long time, I have been advocating a shift from a layered air defense approach to a chaotic air defense approach, and I occasionally mention my ideas on this subject in my articles. But this is not the topic for now. I would like to present you with an innovation proposal that comes from this world of ideas, that can be used in today's layered air defense structure, and that will also contribute to the cost dimension of war. I will use the Hisar O+ missile as an example.

After countless tests and evaluations, Roketsan has matured this missile through deep engineering studies, and brought it into the TAF inventory. Numerous sensors and subsystems were also refined during this process. The kinematics of the missile, i.e. the extraction of all behavior models in the aerodynamic environment resulting from its design, is just one of the studies in this field. As a result, a product dominated by Turkish engineering has been brought into the inventory.

Now let's imagine that we downgrade this advanced missile a little bit. Let's take out all the IIR sensors, computers, etc. expensive components inside the missile. Let's split the savings between more propellant and a larger warhead. But keep the fuselage, the engine, the fins. How can we guide such a dumbed-down missile to its target?

Couldn't we do it by putting in it a very simple and calculated computer system that is pre-programmed and set up to perform some basic functions? This would not be difficult to do, since we know all the aerodynamics and kinematics of the missile. Thus, we can direct the missile towards its target with the profile to be loaded before launching the missile or with direct remote waypoint assignments. Thus, we have a dummy missile with a much lower hit rate / target destruction capability. I will present what can be done with this relatively simple missile in various scenarios:

Scenario 1: 

We all know that air defense systems are expensive and complex objects. Therefore, they cannot be produced and deployed in unlimited numbers. In past battlefields, we have often seen "false target" approaches using inflatable models to give the impression that there is an air defense system. Let's take this one step further.

Almost all of today's fighter aircraft have their own organic self-defense systems. It is through these systems that they recognize missiles that are aimed at them or fired in the area in which they are flying, and their awareness of missiles fired in the operational area is high. Within the scope of this algorithm, aircraft systems analyze the missile's exhaust gas, radar cross-section information, IR or UV radiation, and other intelligence systems complement this mechanism. Thus, even if a new missile type enters the operational area, it is added to the threat library without delay. This way, enemy aircraft will know that the next time a threat is directed at them, it will be Hisar O+.

Imagine that you place some of these dummy missiles in an area where you cannot assign an air defense system but want the enemy to stay away. When the enemy aircraft watches through this gap, it will think that there is a Hisar O+ threat when you fire a dummy missile towards it. At this point, the primary benefit is to make the enemy aircraft abort its mission. Even if you don't destroy it, this is a win in itself.

As a secondary benefit, you give the enemy the impression that the area is covered by an air defense system. This will be a fear factor and an obstacle for your enemy in planning future air operations. In this way, you shape the battlefield to your advantage. 

The most convincing guidance of the dummy missiles will be possible with a fully automated remote-controlled electronic element, the size of a couple of large briefcases, with the gimbaled optical system we have seen in UAVs. This relatively easy and inexpensive automation system will also contribute to your situational awareness with its additional passive eyes.

Scenario 2: 

Fighter jets, whether piloted by pilots or artificial intelligence, resort to evasive maneuvers when a missile threat is directed at them. The aim is to break the missile's lock, get out of its kill zone, allow the missile to run out of fuel in the time to be gained, etc. In the case of relatively medium-range missiles such as Hisar O+ or Siper, the natural reflex is to start evasive maneuvers even before countermeasures.

If you send a dummy missile at an enemy aircraft that it cannot distinguish from the real thing, you force it to take evasive action. Then your real missile, which will follow the fake, can plan its movement according to the enemy's chosen evasive maneuver routine to meet it on a much more lethal course. This means that the few seconds between the fake and the real missiles will maximize your chances of a first strike. The use of dummy missiles would also provide a significant economic benefit in terms of the cost of war.

Scenario 3: 

Suppose you are facing a modern military that uses unmanned UCAV/TUAV systems as well as manned aircraft. You would not want to use your expensive missiles against such slow-moving systems. Because the number of them you have is limited. Against such threats, your fake Hisar O+ missile with its simpler remote guidance algorithms and enlarged warhead would be an ideal solution. After all, the UCAV/TUAV in front of you lacks a comprehensive and active electronic warfare capability. You don't want to overkill on this type of target.

You can also support your dummy missile with cheap sensors. For example, a simple magnetic anomaly detector, a lightweight electronic sensor for home on jamming, or a simple image processor with basic functions. These additional options, which can include components that serve civilian, not necessarily military, purposes, can increase your effectiveness.

Conclusion

In the goal of establishing a domestic and national defense industry, I believe that when developing families of ammunition that you have control over everything, elements such as these should also be added as force multipliers. It is natural to design military systems with the aim of creating a desired effect in war. This is serious work and requires a lot of effort and resources. As a result, you need to have a serious system.

But as our ancestors used to say: War is a trick. While designing domestic and national systems, it would be useful not to neglect the tricks that will accompany the realities. We can also design the tricks to have an impact and reflection on real life. Even though we emphasize it as a fake / dummy, this example, which carries a warfare title and therefore you can hope for a low impact, has an importance that should not be neglected in the introduction to the chaotic air defense concept.