What Are Turkey's Goals in the Syria Operation?

Syrian Refugees Have Inhabited Turkish Lands:

Following the deteriorating balances and lost stability in Syria after the Arab Spring, Turkey has pursued and continues to follow a political and military strategy since 2012 in the context of being a part of the search for a solution in the Syrian context, being at the table and showing its presence on the ground when necessary.

At the beginning of 2016, around 3 million Syrian asylum seekers (now known to exceed 4 million) crossed into Turkey after the migration movements from Syria to Turkey, and very few of them were able to go to European countries. The majority of them have made the Turkish lands their temporary and nowadays permanent residences.

This situation is a result of various policies implemented by the Turkish Government from past to present. In a sense, the Turkish governments, which had to open the border gates to Syrian asylum seekers necessarily, distanced themselves from this possibility, which started to come to the agenda at the time of the Arab Spring discourses. Ultimately, we cannot say that the Turkish Government has paid much attention to the predictions of thinkers and institutions and organizations that express their predictions that large masses may cross to Turkish territory after a civil war in Syria.

As an extension of this approach and as a result, Turkey has been subjected to an influx of refugees; Following the agreement signed with the European Union on 18 March 2016, it voluntarily became a watchdog for Syrian refugees and prevented the formation of possible large migration movements towards European states. From now on, Syrian refugees have become a bleeding problem not only for Europe but for Turkey.

Increasing Instability in the Turkish-Syrian Border Region:

As a result of the evacuation of a large population of 3-4 million mainly the north of Syria and especially the west of the Euphrates, the Syrian PKK (PKK, YPG and PYD) has strengthened its presence in these regions. The Syrian PKK, which sided with the United States, which claims to be fighting ISIS under the name of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and was given the privilege of ruling in northern Syria in return, has seized the opportunity to increase its power. The pressures exerted by the Syrian PKK elements on the Turkmen population seeking to maintain their existence under the deteriorating balances and conditions in the region, the forced migration from their lands, the population movements that disrupted the demographic structure in favor of Kurdish ethnic groups even in the mostly Arab settlements, caused further instability in northern Syria and endangered Turkey's border security.

The PKK forces in Syria, which have the backing of the United States and the Russian Federation in some places; They aimed to form a united front with the Kurdish groups that ruled in the north of Iraq, to create a Kurdish Corridor extending from Iraq to Syria and with a planned exit to the sea,  and finally to create a  favorable environment for the declaration of an Independent Kurdistan in Syria, as tried in the north of Iraq.

Beyond Turkey's only bringing a solution through diplomatic efforts, this situation has led to the opening of the doors to a de facto Kurdish State. Thus, the Turkish State; It decided to carry out a series of military operations in sections on the Syrian-Turkish border, mostly west of the Euphrates, in areas 30-40 kilometers deep from the Turkish border.

Operations against the Syrian PKK:

Operation Euphrates Shield:

It was performed between 24 August 2016 and 29 March 2017 in the area between Azaz-Jarablus settlements. A total of 243 built-up areas were provided with security and the control of 2,015 km² area passed to Turkish military units. Thus, it was possible to restore the broken order, and the safe zone established by the Turkish state with its additional investments in this region brought stability to this region of Syria.

Operation Olive Branch:

This operation, which was launched on 20 January 2018, was carried out in and around the city of Afrin, which is located between the east of Hatay and the Euphrates Shield Operation Zone previously carried out. As a result of the joint operation of the Syrian National Army and the Turkish Armed Forces, the control of 2,000 km² of area was achieved in this region where there are 282 built-up areas. As a result of this operation, PKK elements in this region were deported to areas about 35 kilometers deep from the border.

Operation Peace Spring:

It was carried out between 9 October – 25 November 2019, centered in the region east of the Euphrates in the north of Syria. With the Sochi Agreement signed as a result of the Turkey-Russia negotiations on 23 October 2019 during this operation,

• Clearing 30 kilometers south of the Turkish-Syrian border outside the Peace Spring Operation Area,
• The removal of YPG elements to the territories further south of this region by Syria and the Russian Federation

has been accepted. The U.S. has tacitly supported this process and agreement. Thus, it  was possible to establish a Safe Zone in a 444-kilometer-long area in the Turkish-Syrian border region.

Operation Spring Shield:

It was carried out between 27 February and 5 March 2020 in a narrow area centered in the Idlib region. The security of the south of Reyhanlı and the Cilvegözü border gate region has been strengthened for Turkey as a result of this operation.

Construction of a Security Wall on the Turkish-Syrian Border:

In the meantime, the project to build a security wall on the Turkish-Syrian border, which was started in January 2016, was completed in 2021. The aim of the project is determined as protecting the border against Syrian asylum seekers, smugglers and members of "terrorist organizations" who have not entered legally and have not registered, who do not have a temporary identity document.  The Syrian-Turkish border is Turkey's longest border with 911 kilometers and was determined by the Ankara Agreement. On the Turkish-Syrian common border, which took its current form with the annexation of Hatay to Turkey, apart from smuggling activities, there were no developments that could threaten security to a large extent except for the existence of PKK attacks on Hatay in the 1990s.

However, the developments related to the Syrian civil war after the Arab Spring have turned the border between the two countries into a colander, in other words, a passing inn. Turkey has evaluated the need to put physical measures into effect in addition to military measures and in this context, it has been decided to build a wall on the border.

This wall, which was built with a total length of 837 kilometers, was formed by the addition of 7-ton concrete blocks to each other. The financing of the project was provided under the leadership of the border governorates. Each of the walls weighs 7 tons, is designed 2 meters wide, 4 meters high, 3 meters of concrete and 1 meter of wire mesh. Observation towers were also built at various points determined on the wall, patrol paths were created. Again, reinforced cage wire, lighting systems, active border troops on standby, the use of balloons and mini-UAVs, the use of mobile armored vehicles, aerial and ground surveillance, the use of acoustic sensors, the management of remote-controlled weapon systems but from centers, the execution of point operations with laser weapons, the use of automatic software that can detect crossings and similar advanced technologies have been started to be utilized.

Syria Operation:

Despite the physical measures Turkey has been trying to take for years, as well as the military operations and diplomatic efforts it has carried out, the presence of the Syrian PKK in the Turkish-Syrian border region has continued to pose a threat to the Turkish people and the military units in the border region.

President Erdoğan announced that Turkey plans to carry out a military operation in Syria and create a safe zone along the border in order to push the PKK terrorists, who have increased their presence in the regions in northern Syria, towards the deep regions. This issue, which has been on the agenda in the last 10-15 days, was also included in the final declaration of the MGK held on May 26, 2022.

The operation, which is expected to be executed, is expected to focus on two regions. As Erdoğan points out between the lines, these areas are the settlements of Tal Rifaat and Manbij and their vicinity.

Manbij is 30 kilometers from the Turkish border. Although 99% of the population is of Arab origin, it is claimed that the control of the city is in the hands of the Syrian PKK. It is a settlement where the M4 highway along the Turkish-Syrian border also passes, the cradle of instability between Bab, Jarablus, Aynularab and Raqqa and has become a home for the Syrian PKK. In fact, the entry of Turkish troops into Manbij, which was shown as one of the targets of the Operation Olive Branch carried out in 2018, was not deemed necessary for various reasons at that time.

Tel Rifaat is another important region and is located 18 kilometers from Turkey. During the Afrin operation, it became a gathering place for the Kurdish ethnic communities (around 100,000 people) who migrated from this region to the south. It has a total population of 150,000 people with a population of 50,000 people living here, and is seen as one of the 'solid fortresses' held by the Kurdish Autonomous Administration.

For a possible operation, the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, without mentioning the Russian bases (including Minnag) located in the vicinity of Tal Rifaat, stated that they no longer need to conduct joint operations with Syria, that Turkey's concerns about terrorism should be addressed in order to ensure its own security, and that they tacitly accepted that they had given the 'green light' to an operation that Turkey could carry out by declaring that the United States continued to support the separatists inside Syria. Lavrov, who is visiting Turkey today with the German Foreign Minister, is expected to make statements that will clarify Russian policy towards this operation.

The U.S., on the other hand, said in the words of spokesman Kirby that they were worried about Turkey carrying out an operation against Syria and that they did not want the SDF elements supporting the fight against ISIS to be harmed by this operation. Since the SDF means the Syrian PKK, the U.S. is looking for how to ensure that the terrorist organization is not harmed.

Syria is not keen on a Turkish operation on its territory, but there is not much it can do. On the other hand, Iran, which still has influence over the Syrian administration and maintains its own military bases in and around Aleppo, Damascus, has also used expressions indicating that it does not want Turkey to carry out a possible Syrian operation.

What are the Goals Turkey Wants to Achieve After a Possible Operation?

Turkey clearly wants to remove the terrorists from the border line 30-35 kilometers south and into the deep Syrian territory and to include Manbij and Tal Rifaat, which stand as obstacles to the establishment of a safe zone line along the border, in the buffer zone. At the same time, it is envisaged that the Aynel Arab and Aynel İsa settlements will be included in the safe zone line.

Diplomatic efforts in recent days have also focused on achieving this goal without military action, if possible.

In 2019, Erdogan also raised the plan to create a security zone along the border, but the goal of creating a security zone was not fully realized (despite the Sochi agreement).

Conclusion:

In domestic politics, Erdogan, who is disturbed by the presence of Syrian refugees in the country and their destabilizing behaviors brought up by the opposition, especially Özdağ, the leader of the Victory Party, is making some evaluations inside and outside the country as if he is planning to settle around 1 million Syrian refugees in the safe zone to be established after an operation to be carried out in Syria, at least before the elections.

In addition, due to the Russian-Ukrainian War, the Syrian PKK wants to prevent the Syrian PKK from filling the gap in the areas vacated by Russia, which has largely withdrawn its troops from Syria. Turkey's UN 51. Under the Article, a counter-operation to stop the terrorist organization's attacks in the border region has more than enough legitimacy in terms of international law. The acceptance of this legitimacy through diplomatic contacts, the prevention of the formation of an atmosphere against Turkey in the world public opinion by giving meaningful answers to possible objections, and finally the execution of the operation in the context of "removing terrorists from the border" remain valid.