What could be the conditions that predispose a civil war to occur in a country?

Imagine a state founded by a small community, which initially consisted of a few villages but quickly became a large empire. The state is governed by two separate segments of the society. Other than that, large masses do not have a significant influence on the administration. This state, which has a unique understanding of law, is a traditional republic whose regime has changed over time, although it was initially ruled by a monarchy. Citizens of the upper strata of this state, who have an ambitious structure, have become quite rich in the historical process. A segment that occupies important offices and positions in the state administration has become richer and continues to get richer much faster. But now, politicians and civil servants who struggle greedily for enrichment, glory and fame harm the state in many ways.

The state has been busy with wars and conflicts in many countries in different geographies recently. In other words, it is trying to expand its territory and sphere of influence. While the armies are fighting in foreign countries, there is a complete chaos in the country. Issues such as personal enmities, excessive jealousy and stubbornness, pride and prestige, class conflicts, the inability to gain power and fame in the capital cause prominent politicians and the public to clash with each other.

With the radical changes made recently, the army has lost its classical structure and therefore its unity and integrity. Thus, it has ceased to be the army of the state and the nation, and has become a cosmopolitan structure consisting of military units of politicians or interest groups. Some have even formed armed organizations of mercenaries that operate as a for-profit company.

In this article, we will talk about the causes of a civil war that broke out in this environment and eroded the state. In this civil war, there are two sides consisting of two dominant personalities and powerful people gathered around these two people. Since a significant part of the public cannot fully evaluate these developments, they tend to take sides according to the developments.

A dominant person is someone who is highly successful in his or her profession. This person is also interested in politics. He was also a great success as a politician and won an important election. After winning this election, he followed a populist policy and gained an important place in the eyes of ordinary people. In particular, he succeeded in attracting various groups who thought that they were oppressed or excluded from the state administration until then. This person has also given citizenship to a large number of foreigners, including immigrants and asylum seekers. Thus, the fan base has grown considerably.

After that, he distributed land from state-owned lands to poor people and newly naturalized people and had houses built at cheap costs. While doing these, he did not hesitate to break the law when necessary. His behavior received a great reaction from other people in the state administration and some politicians, but he did not face any legal action as he gained the support of the masses and had legal immunity.

This person, whose senior position in the state is about to expire, has set bigger political goals in front of him and has started preparations for it. However, due to legal restrictions, it cannot even be a candidate in order to reach its new political goals. In order to get rid of these restrictions, he contacts and talks with many people in the capital and especially in the parliament. In addition, thanks to the intelligence network it has established to serve itself, not the state, it closely monitors everything that happens in the country.

Naturally, his rivals follow his movements closely and do their best to strictly comply with legal restrictions. However, this person has become too strong to be stopped anymore. For example, he has amassed a large fortune, which will come in handy in a political struggle. He acquired this wealth during his high-level assignments. It has gained many supporters and interest partners by providing great economic benefits not only to itself but also to those who work with it. Most importantly, it has formed a loyal professional staff based on a partnership of interests around it.

The legal situation regarding the excessive enrichment and tenure of himself and his close circle started to be discussed, but interestingly, he got rid of these pressures thanks to the support of his biggest rival in the future. Thanks to this support, he was able to continue to sit in one of the highest positions in the state administration. Despite this, after a while, the cooperation between them ended and these two people slowly started to move away from each other. This was probably due to the fact that only these two remained as the most powerful persons in the country. Because the only obstacle in front of them to come to an office that will completely control the state is each other.

In fact, in the beginning, there are others who can seize power or counterbalance those who want to seize it. But over time, some of them died of natural causes, some were killed, and some were purged from the state and politics with conspiracies. Thus, only two people who were the dominant power remained in the square, and in time, a small number of people who were in the position of secondary power began to take sides with one or the other of these two people. As a result, the country has become even more unstable.

This instability is not only caused by the struggle of these two people, but also by the long-standing corruption in the country, which is becoming more evident day by day. Due to this corruption, the country's economy has deteriorated, deputies have started to be elected with money, political groups have come into conflict with each other, the society has been divided into camps, bribery and corruption have become normal, loyalty rather than merit has come to the forefront, and fraud has begun in the elections. Votes are bought by distributing money and state duties, and everyone who takes office in the state is tied to the office they have taken by hiring their relatives and relatives.

Military command echelons have become involved in politics, use their positions in the army to gain power and money, and some groups organized among civil servants and even the public are busy plotting against each other. Worse; Mafiaism has increased, relations between the mafia and politicians have become widespread, rival candidates in the elections began to threaten each other through their armed men and criminal organizations.

As a result of all these, the power and effectiveness of the parliament have decreased, and the power to manage the state and use the resources has passed into the hands of certain people. This environment of confusion and chaos has created a belief in political circles and the public that a powerful and charismatic person with extraordinary powers should be brought to power to make things right. This situation brought up the question of who will rule the country alone. Because there are two people with these characteristics. Thus, a rivalry that laid the foundations of the civil war began to emerge.

From what we have told so far, readers will ask, “Which country is this?” A country may have formed before his eyes according to his own thoughts. There may also be those who think that this is a country that exists today because of the similarities in the events described. For this reason, it is useful to explain the name of this country in order to avoid any misunderstanding.

The country we are talking about is the Roman Empire in the middle of the first century BC (59-49 BC). In 49 BC, Rome was divided into two separate camps under the leadership of Julius Caesar (Julius Caesar) and Pompeus (Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus), and a great civil war that some people (for example Montequeu) considered one of the most important events that caused the weakening of Rome. has been the scene. Above, the conditions that caused this civil war have been tried to be explained.

From these statements, it is understood that the conditions that prepared the environment suitable for civil war in Rome were as follows:

The division of society into classes and its political organization accordingly.

-The fact that only some of these classes dominate the country administration.

-As a result, the formation of subclasses that constitute a large mass open to abuse.

- Due to the implemented policies, the people become an overly ambitious society that wants to get rich in a short time and without producing.

-The rapid enrichment of state officials and politicians with state facilities.

Thus, the extreme increase in income inequality.

-The expansion of the borders and sphere of influence of the state to such an extent that it does not correspond to its real power.

For this reason, continuous cross-border conflicts and wars.

-The alienation of the military units serving far from the capital to the country and their overpowering by staying away from the control of politics.

-The clash of politicians and the people with each other in the capital due to reasons such as personal enmity, excessive jealousy and stubbornness, pride, prestige, class conflicts, the fact that a person becomes extremely powerful and his fame is not accepted by his rivals.

-The deterioration of the classical structure of the army and the politicization of the state from being an army.

-The army becomes a cosmopolitan army made up of associations of certain individuals, political parties and religious groups.

-As a result of this, the unity and integrity of the army is broken and thus the supporters of politicians or interest groups dominate the military units.

-Some people set up armed organizations of mercenaries to replace the army.

-Politics should be made on the basis of people, not ideas, and as a result, leader-oriented politics come to the fore.

-As a result, the society is divided into camps that are intolerant of each other by gathering around at least two leaders with charismatic features.

-The laws of relatives or political supporters of those who are in power in the center and who have seized power locally are not at all enrichment with state facilities by counting on an illegally donating state lands to some people for political purposes.

- Granting citizenship to foreigners, immigrants and asylum seekers for political gain.

- Provoking the lower classes for a political purpose by applying populist policies.

- People in power do not hesitate to act against the law, claiming that they are for a humanitarian or divine purpose.

Despite all these unlawfulnesses, the upper classes remain silent and even applaud these practices because they themselves commit the same unlawfulness, and the lower classes, because they think that these unlawfulnesses benefit them.

- Pollution of politics (election rigging, buying votes by distributing money and state duties, electing deputies with money, etc.).

- Deepening of social decay (For example, bribery, favoritism, favor, nepotism, corruption, loyalty rather than merit in state duties, anyone who takes any office in the state tries to settle in the office he has taken by hiring his relatives and relatives, public servants and the public) some organized groups are busy plotting against each other.

- The spread of mafia, the cooperation between the mafia and politicians, the fact that they are not subject to legal or political sanctions, the rival candidates in the elections threaten each other through their armed men, mafia and other criminal organizations.

-As a result of all this, the power and effectiveness of the parliament are diminished.

-The decrease or absence of talented and prudent politicians who try to protect democracy in the face of emerging dominant and oppressive leaders.

-Decreased public trust in politics and politicians.

- Deterioration of the economy.