What has happened in Syria and what is likely to happen

Interesting developments are taking place in Syria. The 61-year old Syrian Baathist regime seems to have collapsed without lasting 61 days, let alone 61 hours.

The fall of such totalitarian regimes, which seem to be very strong, is always very short. Similar to the fall of the Saddam regime in Iraq, the totalitarian Assad regime is also collapsing in Syria. The war that lasted 13 years ended in almost 13 hours.

Let us analyse why this happened and what is likely to happen. 

First of all, the most important question is why Russia did not support the Assad regime. If Russia wanted to, it could have intervened from the air against all the elements moving towards Damascus with unarmoured vehicles and at least slowed down, if not stopped, this movement, but it did not intervene. Let's remember, today's silence and passivity of Russia, which did not hesitate to martyr 33 sons of the homeland without blinking an eye because they crossed the line determined with Turkey, is quite meaningful.

There may be two reasons for this passivity and silence. The first is the possibility that Russia has received guarantees from the opposition regarding its two existing bases in Syria; the second is that it wants the ongoing war with Ukraine to end with the change in the US administration. 

With the war between Ukraine and Russia, the period of inter-state war began again in 2022. In 2024, Israel's operations, first in the Gaza Strip, then in Lebanon and finally against Iran, reinforced this period of war between states. Just as the course of events was accelerating towards the involvement of other states and discussions of World War III were beginning to take place, the order began to change again with the intervention of non-state actors in Syria. The lack of reaction of the big powers to the recent events, which are a sign of a return to proxy war from the inter-state war order, may perhaps have been done in order to prevent a new world war. We can say that while the upper level of the inter-state war level is evolving into a world war, the period of returning to proxy wars, which is a lower level, is beginning. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's call for peace should also be evaluated within this framework. 

Iran's power was tested by Israel and Russia's power was tested by the US and the West through Ukraine. The US hegemony no longer sees the need for more war. Trump's statement that ‘we will not interfere’ signals that the US will return to its blurred policy of changing according to the situation, sometimes like a boss, sometimes like a manager, sometimes with reservations, similar to the past Trump era. 

If one opposition group cannot dominate all of Syria, Syria is likely to be divided into two or three. While the opposition groups are fighting with each other in Manbij, it seems difficult for these groups to act together in the future. Maybe there may be an organisation similar to the one in Iraq. However, Syria is likely to be a great enigma and confusion in the future.

Syria may resemble the current situation in Cyprus in the future. The two Russian bases may remain privileged, just like the two British bases in Cyprus. Russia will not want to lose this gain at any cost. It could also be the case of two separate states, one recognised and the other unrecognised. The biggest difference between Syria and Cyprus is that Turkey will probably be on the recognised side this time.

To summarise, the events in Syria are taking place in a surprising and unpredictable manner. It is also difficult to make predictions for the future. Turkey should carefully monitor these events that concern its own security and take place in its neighbourhood, should not turn to expansionist policies that are not in the country's interest, should continue to support the opposition in order to establish good relations with them and should declare to the whole world that it will not allow fait accompli against its interests.