What is behind Russia's sudden withdrawal?

Russian Forces are retreating:

The United States has begun to move some of Russia's combat forces near Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, to other regions. Instead of withdrawing their forces altogether, the Russians considered it necessary to redeploy their forces in the field according to the course of the operation for possible future Ukrainian wars they were planning.

Some of the American political and military officials in Europe, notably the American General Tod Wolters (SACEUR), NATO's allied commander, initially believed that Moscow was trying to overthrow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and set up a pro-Russian puppet government. They argued that he was acting. In this approach, it has been claimed that the Russians aimed to seize the capital of Ukraine, which is home to more than 2 million people, and that a large part of the Russian troops, including the famous Russian convoy advancing parallel to the Dnieper river, acted for this purpose.

On the other hand, the civilian population of Ukraine and the military resistance units did not allow the Russian forces to enter the capital with determined counter-attacks in the past days. After stopping the Russian Army, which was repulsed near Kyiv, the Ukrainians tried to recapture the cities of Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel, with partially successful counter-attacks.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, following the developments in the operational field with concern, announced on Tuesday, March 29, that there will be a reduction in the number of soldiers in the units that are carrying out the siege operation in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv. Although it was not stated by Russia that these units gave up the siege, this statement led to the emergence of an expectation in this direction. At least in the north of Kiev, the course of the war slowed down or even stopped. The intention of the Russians was expressed as "to drastically reduce hostilities". International news sources, conveying their impressions from the field, began to pass on the news that the Russian tactical battalions around Kyiv were moving towards the east.

According to some commentators, the Russians have started to reconsider concentrating the operation in the Donbas region, instead of concentrating the operation on all regions, in order to put an end to the successful resistance of the Ukrainians in the eastern regions. Thus, it is aimed to achieve a decisive victory in the Donbas region, where there are two pro-Kremlin separatist republics, and to gain negotiation superiority over the Ukrainian administration. This meant that the Russians saw that they had to readjust their strategic orientation. In this context, Moscow has started to shift troops within Ukraine in accordance with the re-determined Russian priorities in this war, which is taking place in front of the international press.

Total Attack Focused on the East of Ukraine:

The Russian army has ended the first phase of its so-called special military operation. The Kremlin has probably given up on its plan to invade all of Ukraine, which it started in the first place. Instead, he introduced a gradual invasion plan and decided to switch to an invasion method from east to west, step by step, with the salami tactic. It is understood that Moscow will begin to focus on eastern Ukraine with the aim of creating new separatist zones on a larger and larger scale than before and turning them one by one into Russian territory.

Meanwhile, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, who met for the fourth time in Istanbul on Tuesday, 29 March, are trying to reflect on the negotiating table every development in the field, which they think will give them an advantage in bargaining according to the other side.

According to some, the Russians are trying to create the necessary conditions in the field of operation of the Russian army in order to pacify the rising hostile feelings of the Ukrainians against the Putin administration and to achieve the negotiation results desired by Moscow. It is underlined that the major reduction of military activities in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv should be read as a Russian tactic.

According to the field data shared by the British Defense Intelligence as 'open source', Russia has started to reinforce the Russian army in Donbas with foreign fighters. "Special military units" composed of fighters brought from Syria and Africa by the Wagner Group were transferred to Donbas to participate in the war.

US sources, on the other hand, especially emphasize that the Russians did not really make a withdrawal move. The Americans believe that this is nothing more than redeployment. According to American intelligence, the Russian army considered it necessary to withdraw from the Kyiv region in order to carry out a major offensive against other parts of Ukraine. However, it is emphasized that the Russian troops took "prevention measures" against the attacks of the Ukrainians against them during the withdrawal.

Trying to Gain Leverage for Diplomatic Talks

In accordance with the Russian diplomats, Russian Army's retreat from its offensive position at Kiev should be interpreted as extending an olive branch to Kiev in order to sit at the table with the Ukrainian government.

Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who leads Russia's diplomatic mission in Belarus, said that the Kremlin does not want to put the Ukrainian capital under further military pressure and let it fall to the ground, until diplomatic negotiations can proceed in Kiev. He explained that it was aimed to relieve the people and that a new evaluation would be made if no results were obtained from the negotiations.

However, Russia; The missile attacks on the capital of Ukraine continue. Continuing the operations of the Russian special forces, including the capture of President Zelensky, who led the Ukrainian resistance, raises questions about the sincerity of the Russians. It seems that Kyiv will continue to be suppressed by Russian artillery and cruise missiles while the Russian troops withdraw. Although a sizable shopping mall has already been hit in Kiev and many buildings have been affected by the Russian attacks, it can be argued that the Ukrainian capital remains intact compared to the mostly Russian-speaking regional centers of Kharkiv and Mariupol.

Zelensky Urges Europeans to Hurry:

Fears are shared by Zelensky's administration that a Russian withdrawal could lead to a decline in Western support, which is currently at a high level, and creating an air of 'war over'. It was claimed by Zelensky that the withdrawal around Kyiv was a Russian deception maneuver to limit the transfer of arms to the Ukrainians. In his speech to NATO countries at the end of last week, Zelensky made statements accusing the West of acting too slowly to send tanks, missile defense and anti-ship weapons to Ukraine. As if confirming this, the Biden administration has not found it appropriate for the time being to directly transfer the MiG-29 warplanes in the hands of Poland from the Soviet era to Ukraine. SACEUR General Wolters also stated that the USA has not yet given tactical (Switchblade type) unmanned aerial vehicles, which are thought to be effective in disabling Russian tanks.

Meanwhile, the Russians may be planning to increase their tanks' defenses against anti-tank missiles in the operating zone during the time they hope to win by tactical retreat. The need to increase the strength of Russian tanks, which became vulnerable to attacks by Javelin anti-tank missiles supplied by the United States and similar British weapons supplied to Ukraine, has clearly emerged. It can be expected that Russian technology will develop countermeasures against these weapons or launch modern tanks that can counter these weapons.

Conclusion:

The withdrawal action in the Kyiv region, which was initiated for tactical reasons or to force the Ukrainians to sign an agreement close to Russian wishes, slowed the pace of the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24 and brought general relief. Moreover, it also raised hopes that the war would end. For the first time after 35 days, hopes for peace blossomed in Ukraine, and especially the residents of Kyiv began to enjoy their daily lives again. It is not known how long this situation will last, but it is known that the war will not end in a short time.