Why is Western-backed Nigeria/ECOWAS conducting an operation against Russian-backed Niger?
In Niger, a coup d'état was carried out against the President under the leadership of the Presidential Guard Command, which is responsible for protecting President Mohamed Bazoum, the head of the country's administration. The coup, which was formalised with the overthrow of the President, turned into a military coup that largely involved all the soldiers in the country with the support of the Niger Army Command Headquarters.
About three months ago, in May, when Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) delivered two Hürkuş-C (light attack aircraft) to Niger, this African country attracted the attention of the Turkish public. Soon after, the military coup d'état that took place in the country on 26 July brought along the questions of "Where is this Niger, and why was there a coup d'état?" for the people of our country.
Niger is the second largest country in West Africa geographically with a surface area of approximately 1.26 million km². The population of Niger is around 25 million and Muslims constitute the majority. Once a French colonial territory, Niger gained its full independence on 3 August 1960. Considered one of the poorest countries in the world, Niger ranked 189th among 191 countries in the UN Human Development Index (2021). The economy of this landlocked country is largely based on agriculture, animal husbandry and mining. Niger is important to the global market in several respects, including its 5% share of the global uranium supply.
In Niger, a coup d'état against the President was led by the Presidential Guard Command, which is tasked with protecting the head of the country's administration, President Mohamed Bazoum. The coup, which was formalised with the overthrow of the President, turned into a military coup that largely involved all the soldiers in the country with the support of the Niger Army Command Headquarters. While the leader of the coup, General Abdurrahman Tchiani, completely seized the administration of the country, he stated that the junta is determined to display a permanent administration in Niger.
Niger is the second largest country in West Africa in terms of area with a population of 25 million. At 1.26 million square kilometres (486,000 square miles), it is one hundred times the size of Gambia, where ECOWAS last intervened militarily in 2017.
Reactions to the Coup in Niger
The United States has halted some foreign aid programmes benefiting the junta in Niger, but will continue to provide humanitarian and food aid, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna met in Paris on Saturday with Niger's ousted prime minister, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, and the Niger ambassador.
The biggest reaction to the coup came two days ago from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Founded in 1975 with Nigeria as its headquarters, this international organisation aims to develop cooperation among West African States and to establish an economic and political union with a common market and a common currency. ECOWAS member countries are Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo and Cape Verde. Turkey has been following the activities of the organisation as an observer since 2005.
The Community took a strong stance against last week's seizure of power, the seventh coup in West and Central Africa since 2020. Meeting on Friday 4 August, ECOWAS leaders decided to use force against the Niger junta if Niger's elected ousted President Bazoum was not reinstated by the junta by Sunday (6 August). Prior to this, a delegation from ECOWAS had travelled to Niger but was not received by the coup leader, General Tchiani.
According to some assessments, the Niger crisis shows that France's semi-empire in Africa is finally crumbling. On the other hand, France said it would support ECOWAS' efforts to make the coup fail, but did not specify whether this would require military support for an intervention.
Speaking about a possible ECOWAS intervention in Niger, Mr Tchiani said that any attack against his country would be "immediately responded to".
Will there be an ECOWAS Intervention in Niger?
ECOWAS has demonstrated a will to forcibly suppress a coup for the first time in years in West Africa, which has witnessed many successful coups since 2020. At the closing of the three-day ECOWAS meeting in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, it was announced that "All the elements that will go into a final intervention, including the resources needed, how and when we will deploy the force, have been worked out here". Given these statements, it can be said that the possibility of this military intervention is increasing.
If the junta government of Niger resists against the ECOWAS intervention, I think that this intervention may lead to a regional turmoil, perhaps even to the disintegration of ECOWAS, which has a history of half a century. Because three countries, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, which have a common border with Niger and are also ECOWAS members, have already expressed their will to recognise and side with the junta. The 'secessionist' status of these three countries has already disrupted the unity of ECOWAS. The final decisions of ECOWAS are taken by consensus among the member states. In this case, it is not yet clear how the 'final joint decision' on intervention can be taken despite the objection of these three members.
ECOWAS' problem is not limited to these three countries. Apparently, the possible intervention of ECOWAS is supported by the USA and France. This is because the interests of these two countries are considered to be related to the return of the old regime, the Bazoum administration. It is understood that the Tchiani junta has unofficially adopted a pro-Russian stance. In this situation, ECOWAS, backed by the USA and France, is opposed by Russia, hailed as an ally by the military regimes of Mali and Burkina Faso, and more importantly by the Wagner group, a Russian private military contractor.
Allegedly, Niger's new military junta asked the Russian mercenary group Wagner for help as the deadline approached for the country to release its ousted president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc. This shows to the world how the tensions in the region have the potential to expand.
The current tense situation could lead to a continuation of the war in Ukraine between powers outside Africa, between Russia and the Western bloc. In Niger, there is the danger of a proxy conflict between those who support the restoration of democracy and those who support the junta with a strong anti-Western stance.
In this context, the position of Niger's neighbours Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea is clear. They are not expected to make their territory available for ECOWAS intervention. Chad, which is trying to mediate between Tichiani and ECOWAS, is also unlikely to support a military operation. Other neighbours Algeria and Libya are not members of ECOWAS. In this case, the option of intervening from Nigerian territory (the 1,600 km common border between Nigeria and Niger) comes to the fore.
Bola Tinubu, the chairman of ECOWAS and President of Nigeria, has asked the senate for a resolution to "organise military action to force the military junta in Niger into submission". Tinubu had previously closed the border between his country and Niger. Subsequently, the new administration of Niger terminated all relations with Nigeria. On the other hand, the Nigerian Senate's rejection of Tinubu's bill for a military operation in Niger made the possible intervention of the army to be formed with the participation of ECOWAS member states in Niger difficult. The Nigerian Senate, which has not favoured the military option for the time being, condemned the coup and passed a resolution in support of ECOWAS' efforts to restore constitutional order in Niger.
ECOWAS is an organisation with experience in military intervention. The last military intervention was in Gambia in 2017. Niger's situation is quite different from Gambia from the perspective of a military operation. In my opinion, organising a military operation in a country of this size may confront ECOWAS with the problems experienced in the large-scale operation that Russia initially wanted to organise in Ukraine but failed.
Nigeria is a country with 223,000 troops, which is quite a large army compared to other countries in the region. The united army (Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali), which can resist Nigeria in the opposite bloc, can only reach a military size of around 50-60,000. Moreover, it is expected that Nigeria will not be limited to a ground invasion of Niger, but may also use air assets.
Conclusion
There is a tense wait all over the world today. Will ECOWAS, led by Nigeria, launch a military operation in Niger? The answer to this question will probably become clear in the coming week.
Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup and restore democracy in Niger collapsed almost as soon as they began. The deadline given to Niger's junta government expires today, so tensions are even higher.
In a letter read in the country's senate on Friday, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu told his government to prepare for options, including military deployment. Senegal also announced it would send troops. However, on Saturday, a day after the President's decision, the Nigerian Senate made it difficult for Nigerian President Bola Tinubu to take the decision to launch military action on his own. Most member states said they wanted diplomacy to work before ECOWAS intervened. The view is that they should be given every opportunity to reverse what the junta has done.
References
The Guardian, “West African bloc prepares for military action as Niger coup deadline looms”, 5 Ağustos 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/05/west-african-bloc-gives-niger-coup-leaders-until-sunday-to-end-revolt
Chinedu Asadu, “Niger’s junta isn’t backing down, and a regional force prepares to intervene. Here’s what to expect”, AP news, 5 Ağustos 2023, https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-military-west-africa-nigeria-f8156256f8a7e496263e4acc70c5fa79
Tolga Özbek, 10 Temmuz 2023, https://tolgaozbek.com/savunma/turk-savunma-sanayi/cadin-hurkus-ve-ankasi-boy-gosterdi/
CSavunma, “TUSAŞ: Çad Hava Kuvvetleri’ne 3 HÜRKUŞ ve 2 ANKA teslim ettik”, 14 Temmuz 2023, https://www.csavunma.com/tusas-cad-hava-kuvvetlerine-3-hurkus-ve-2-anka-teslim-ettik/.html
