Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Possibilities:

The balance of terror created from the days of the Cold War until now has deeply affected people's thinking and understanding. Preliminary assumptions such as the inability of a country to invade another country arbitrarily and alone, especially after the United Nations structure is established, are a part of this. Of course, there were many wars both during the cold war and in the near future. However, in all wars, we see that even one side seeks international legitimacy, justification and at least cooperation.

Frankly, the Russia-Ukraine war represents a very interesting first in this respect. Therefore, whatever the outcome of this war, it can be said that the presumption in question has been destroyed.

All Battle Probabilities Will Come To An End:

Of course, there are many other presuppositions inherited from the Soviet Union and NATO balance. But one of them stands out. This is the subject of "Use of Nuclear Weapons" in a war. Several factors stand out in this regard.

The first of these is the situation of Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear weapons inventory after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Because this is an obvious fact. If Ukraine had nuclear weapons, Russia would never have dared such an operation. In other words, nuclear weapons can be prioritized by many countries as a new and deep-rooted security dimension. Due to this process, the unconventional arms race, namely the chain nuclearization spillover effect, can be observed.

Another presupposition is that neither side can use nuclear weapons in wars. Because, an escalation is foreseen in game theory and nuclear football approaches that have survived from the cold war. In other words, even the use of a single nuclear warhead can lead to a global disaster or even annihilation with a chain effect.

Russians Can Use Tactical Nuclear Missiles:

Could the Russia-Ukraine war, which is the hottest topic of our day, be used to destroy the presumption on this issue? Everyone will answer this question differently. But it is my conviction that if they cannot achieve a clear military victory within a certain period of time, the Russians will use their "non-strategic" nuclear inventory. Because the direct and indirect losses they suffered during this war are even higher than the level of exposure to a nuclear weapon.

We are witnessing that the Russians not only ordered to raise the level of nuclear preparedness in the first days of the war, but also showed other signs in this direction. For example, NBC often wants to consider biological laboratories in Ukraine in the context of nuclear, biological and chemical warfare. Frequent emphasis on the fact that Ukraine, even if it has renounced its nuclear weapons, has the potential to produce new weapons and delivery vehicles. The lack of land power in his hands capable of winning this war on land. The fact that there is no other factor to break the collective resistance of the people against it. The most important thing is that he lacks the staff to understand and make sense of the new war style he is living...

Because of all these factors, it is my personal opinion that Russia will unilaterally resort to the use of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory.

Will EU Countries Start the Race to Acquire Nuclear Weapons?

I think the next move of this will take place in an unexpected area. Germany, which has highly qualified manpower and sufficient technological experience, may come across as a power that has to have a nuclear weapon. Already, the country has been stockpiling militarily purified plutonium, accumulated for decades from civilian nuclear reactors, right next to its border and inside France. At the moment, Germany may seem quite far from nuclear power. However, it is highly probable that the traditional approach on this issue will change after Russia's move.

The Ukraine War strengthened the ties not only between NATO members but also within the EU, reinforced the understanding of defense and tightened the ranks among the allies. As of now, the only nuclear power in the EU is France. The existence of this power may be seen as sufficient for some countries. But Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Czechia, Finland, Sweden, Norway etc. will remain far from satisfying many other countries. Because France is far from being reliable enough to risk causing nuclear destruction for these countries. It is clear that it has the potential to change sides or remain passive in the name of its national interests. Therefore, a European Union that only France has nuclear power will show that it will not accept this situation in the near future. At this point, it is highly probable that more than one EU country, especially Germany, may take action to acquire nuclear weapons. In particular, the values ​​and structure of the German society may cause Germany to come to the fore in the EU as a guarantor country that will not use this power unless it is necessary.

It is obvious that a significant part of the German defense budget, which will increase even more, will need to focus on Missile and Missile Defense technologies.

The Spillover Effect of Iran's Nuclear Programs:

There are many reasons why Iran's nuclear programs have been stably thwarted for years. However, the most prominent reason from the western point of view is this: Iran with a nuclear weapon may bring with it the obligation of Saudi Arabia and Turkey to go to nuclear armament. Thus, the chain of arms effect could increase the threat to the West and its interests to an unacceptable level. Now, the nuclear arms race, which they have been trying to prevent for years, is about to spread, starting from the European lands they never expected.

Could Putin Use Nuclear Weapons?

In short, I say yes. You may be thinking that Putin wouldn't do such a crazy thing. However, I am of the opinion that the presuppositions and judgments are destroyed within a certain logical process, and that this is done as a result of a conscious choice. In this context, I foresee a near future where nuclear weapons become usable and widespread.