Will there be a Land Forces Operations in Syria?

Last night, agencies reported that the Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar went to the Land Forces Operations Center. Of course, what immediately came to our minds was the question of whether the ground operation in Syria, which has been expected for days, will be launched on Sunday, that is, today at dawn? 

In the past, we used to look at the Chiefs of General Staff in such situations. Even us ex-soldiers used to try to read the signals that the upper echelon of the Turkish Armed Forces would give, to see if there was a military development or what was going on. This would undoubtedly be a necessary reading for anyone who wanted to follow the agenda. Nowadays, it is enough just to follow Minister Akar. So we don't need to get tired. 

I think if there is going to be a ground operation, the Minister of National Defense will direct and manage it from the Land Forces Headquarters. His visit to the heart of the Land Forces Command, which he commanded for two years between 2013-15, to listen to the preparations for this land operation, which is now imminent, must have given him the opportunity to bring the command together and make a final military assessment. Perhaps a final 'Commander's Due Diligence' was conducted. In the final analysis, assuming and accepting that the conduct of the operation, its objectives, command and coordination procedures were discussed during this visit, the only thing to do from now on is to present the final decision proposal to President Erdoğan for him to press the button.

Erdoğan is already ready for war. All his rhetoric and messages to the public on every occasion are in this direction. In his speeches after November 19, President Erdoğan stated that the operation against northern Syria will not be limited to air strikes. Erdoğan said that a ground operation would be launched in northern Syria 'at the appropriate time', but he did not say 'absolutely'. He continued to whisper between the lines that Turkey is open to diplomatic contacts and that Turkey does not have to carry out a ground operation if the promises made in 2019 (by the US and the Russian Federation) are kept. 

Of course, if you do not have a military force on the ground behind you and a stance to show your determination, diplomacy is unlikely to succeed. I think that the recent mobilization of the Turkish Armed Forces should be read in conjunction with the contacts between the parties around the table. These contacts have not yet been blocked, and I believe that they have not yet been blocked. 

As a matter of fact, Erdoğan invites his interlocutors to keep their promises. Indeed, during Operation Peace Spring in 2019 (October 9-November 25), Turkey wanted to clear the area between Rasuleyn and Tel Abyad from PKK/YPG formations and establish a 30 km deep secure corridor in this part of the border. The then US Vice President rushed to Ankara and demanded that Turkey halt the operation. In return, he promised that the PKK/YPG (they prefer to call it the Syrian Democratic Forces-SDG, but that is another matter) would evacuate the safe corridor with their heavy weapons. Of course, the same was true for Moscow, the other patron of the Kurds in the region. With the October 23rd Sochi agreement, Russia proposed that Turkish and Russian troops patrol the area where this operation is taking place, and this was accepted by Turkey. As a result, Turkey was promised and committed by the US and Russia to keep a 444 km. long and 30 km. deep zone on this side of the border 'clean'.

Now the President is complaining about the non-fulfillment of these commitments and is pressuring the US and Russian axis. To show how serious he is about this, he continues to insist that a ground operation will follow the Claw Sword Air Operation.

According to Erdoğan, if Russia and America cannot keep their promises, then we have the right to take care of ourselves. The President talked about the PKK/YPG attacks on our provinces in the border region, and the striking numbers he gave were important. In the last 7 years, the PKK carried out 764 mortar, rocket and missile attacks on Hatay, Gaziantep, Mardin and Şanlıurfa. 32 citizens lost their lives in these attacks. A picture that summarizes the reality of the terror threat right under our noses. Without the establishment of a secure corridor and a 'successful' state life in Syria in every aspect, it does not seem possible for Turkey to feel safe. 

Four ships are being built jointly with Pakistan as part of the MİLGEM, or National Ship project, which is Turkey's maritime pride. On November 25, the ceremony for the third ship to be built for Pakistan was held. PNS Khaıbar, the third ship within the Pakistan MİLGEM Project, was launched. President Erdoğan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif attended the ceremony held at the Istanbul Shipyard Command.

President Erdoğan also gave clear messages in his speech at this ceremony. He said that we will not tolerate terrorists. He underlined that we will continue our fight against all forms of terrorism inside and outside our borders. Referring to America, he said, "No matter whose skirts they cling to, we are and will be asking these enemies of humanity to pay for every drop of blood they shed. Under the guise of fighting against DAESH, we also see the benefit for those who arm and support the Syrian extension of the separatist terrorist organization to make their calculations accordingly instead of constantly advising us to calm down."

The American side called on Turkey to calm down. It pointed to the importance of the SDF, the Syrian PKK, in the fight against ISIS. The PKK, in turn, said that they were 'unable to fight ISIS' because of Turkey's airstrikes. Meanwhile, the Turkish army continued to fire punitive strikes on PKK/YPG positions, as the Turkish press dubbed them. 

After the Claw Sword Air Operation, the PKK has been attacking with missiles and providing the Turkish army with the necessary justification for a ground operation. It behaves like a thirst for death or something. The announcement of the Ministry of National Defense this morning is important: 27 terrorists were neutralized. We will continue to hold these scoundrels to account for our martyrs.

I think this accountability will not be fully realized without a ground operation. When I look at the developments, I think that a ground operation, albeit limited, may be possible in these days. I find Erdoğan's determination to close our borders with a security strip from Hatay to Hakkari important. A security corridor of 30 kilometers in depth, together with the walls built on the border, would provide Turkey with relief in every way. Not only will the organization of a Kurdish corridor in this strip be disrupted, but PKK attacks on our own people, especially from Syria, will be prevented to a great extent. It can also be expected that the return of Syrians in our country, or at least their resettlement in the safe corridor areas, will accelerate, even if it is a weak possibility.

In front of the safe corridor on the Syrian leg, there are Tel Rif'at, Manbij, Ayn El Arab (Peace Spring or Kobani). 

Tel Rifat district, which had a population of around 20,000 in 2004, is a settlement in Aleppo, located 40 kilometers north of Aleppo, 40 kilometers above Aleppo. It was captured by YPG/PKK terrorists who used Afrin as a base in February 2016 with Russian air support. The YPG/PKK changed the population structure of the town, forcing the displacement of around 250,000 Arab civilians during its occupation of Tal Rifaat. The displaced Tal Rifaat residents were forced to seek refuge in areas near the Turkish border and Azaz.

Manbij, home to around 100,000 people, had fallen under the control of groups opposing the Syrian regime in July 2012. Then, in January 2014, it was captured by the terrorist organization DAESH. The organization, which received the support of Russia in the occupation of Tel Rifat, 24 km. from the Turkish border, showed that it was in an effort to reinforce its dominance in the region by occupying Manbij with the support of American soldiers. Thus, after the Kurdish occupation, the Turkmen settlement characteristic of Manbij, where Circassians were settled by the Ottomans after the War of 93, was disrupted.

Ayn al-Arab is the size of a medium-sized town. It is located south of Suruç district of Şanlıurfa. It has 54,681 inhabitants. About 90% of the population is Kurdish. With a large Kurdish population, it is often referred to as Kobani. I think we should use whatever Syria calls it, which is Ayn El Arab.

We have already created part of this strip with cross-border operations. We will take care of the rest step by step. I find it important that Erdogan said that we will clear Tel Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al Arab from the PKK. If the Americans and Russians do not act together and block these three cities, as they did during Operation Peace Spring in October 2019, the Turkish Army will be able to easily capture the targets in a short time in a possible ground operation. Despite the existence of the PKK's tunnels in these cities, the Turkish army now knows how to use urban warfare, to advance step by step through the city without harming the population and to destroy all kinds of targets. It gives us all this confidence with its practices.

At the first stage, it seems that an operation to Manbij and Ayn al-Arab, that is, the Arab Spring, is not being considered. I believe that priority will be given to Tal Rifaat in the north of Aleppo due to the increasing PKK organization. The capture of Tal Rifaat by the Syrian National Army and Ayn al-Arab by the Turkish Army in a simultaneous operation may also be among the courses of action on the table. Manbij could be taken by itself in the meantime. 

Last Friday, it was reported that the Syrian National Army was preparing a new military operation to liberate Tal Rifaat with the support of the Turkish army. It was even reported that a meeting was held between the Syrian National Army and Turkish officials and this issue was discussed. On the border, images of the Turkish Armed Forces' ÇNRA and howitzer firing at PKK/YPG positions in the Tel Rifat region continue to appear in the media.

The US has openly stated that it does not want the PKK/YPG elements, which it sees as its local partners in the fight against ISIS, to be harmed and does not hide its discomfort with the 'uncontrolled' tension that has emerged in the region these days. In the meantime, the US also states that there is a high probability of a ground operation by Turkey. If we recall, the US consulate in Erbil was the first to inform the outside world about the Claw Sword Air Operation.

According to another report, Putin is expected to bring Syrian President Assad and President Erdoğan together in a trilateral summit in Moscow. Erdoğan is not hiding this either. After all, we all know how much of a pragmatist he is. He is willing to meet with Assad, as he did with the Egyptian president, with whom he had a quick meeting in Qatar. Reuters reported in mid-September that Hakan Fidan, Undersecretary of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT), met with his Syrian counterpart Ali Mamlouk. On July 19, the two sides also met in Iran. In the near future, there may be a Foreign Ministers' meeting followed by an Assad-Erdogan meeting.

Considering this traffic, perhaps a meeting with Assad for a ground operation can be expected. 

However, I expect that having the possibility of a ground operation on the table will help to ease Turkey's hand in its diplomatic overtures to the situation in Syria, given the current mobilization of the Turkish army.

As a result of the agreement reached between the Iraqi and Turkish governments in 2017 against the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq, which attempted to take a step towards independence and held a referendum on September 25, the two armies launched a coordinated ground operation in northern Iraq on September 18 to put a stop to this fait accompli. As a matter of fact, this series of operations, which was launched as Operation Claw at that time, has been continued by the Turkish army until today. The last Operation Claw Sword was the air leg of this series.

Now, if a similar coordination of operations can be made with Syria, I think that the Turkish and Syrian armies can act together and it may be possible to establish a more peaceful environment in the north of Syria than today, and to clear the PKK from the region to a large extent within the framework of a large operation. I believe that if Assad and Erdoğan meet, such a door should be opened, that is, joint operations should also be put on the agenda.

By the way, I look at the TV screens and there are those who present this ground operation as a centuries-old showdown with America and the West. However, if it happens, it will be no different from the four previous ground operations in Syria. It is a military operation, that's all. We are taking care of Syria, now it is Greece's turn. We will teach a lesson to the US, which is massing in Alexandroupoli. We will put the Greeks in their place who are arming the islands... I do not find this kind of rhetoric, which smells of hamasacas, which thinks that it puts our people in the mood of the 'War of Independence', to be correct, and I find it difficult to understand why such rhetoric finds a wide coverage on national channels.

In the end, I think we should stop blaming the West or countries like Russia for everything. We also wanted a possible regime change in Syria after the Arab Spring. We cleared the mines on the border between Turkey and Syria with our own hands. We welcomed the Syrians who were victimized by the civil war, which led to 'irregular migration', and gave them a place on our soil. This great humanitarian aid and sacrifice is the main source of the problems we face today in northern Syria. We left the region largely to the Kurdish population. In a way, we encouraged the change in demography with our own hands. As a state, we also served the growth of instability there, even if not directly. Then, we were disturbed by the establishment of a Kurdish corridor in Syria, by the US shaping this region through the Kurds under the pretext of ISIS. As if we had not watched the same movie in northern Iraq before, we "rediscovered America!" in Syria. 

However, America is the same America. We are the ones who are unwise. We need to realize that we have to pursue policies that bring us to our senses. It is not possible to get anywhere with palliative, hamathic rhetoric. If we are going to carry out a ground operation, let's do it, but afterwards, let's come to an agreement with the legitimate government in Syria, act together and put an end to the American and Russian presence in Syria. Together with the Syrian state, let's prevent the Syrian Kurds from declaring their autonomous administration, which will do nothing but destabilize the south of Turkey. 

This is the legitimate way and international legitimacy demands it. This is also in our interest.