defense

Is a new era beginning in the Middle East?

This is a new Middle East, a Middle East in which Israel has to wonder every day whether an Israeli action will trigger an Iranian missile attack or drone strike directly on Israeli territory

Israel launched an airstrike on Iran's consulate building in Damascus on 1 April. The attack killed 7 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Iran announced that Israel's consulate attack meant an attack on its territory and that they would retaliate. Israel also announced that it would respond to Iran's attacks.

On 13 April, Iran launched an attack on Israel with hundreds of kamikaze, drone, ballistic and cruise missiles and announced that some targets were hit. According to the Israeli public broadcaster KAN, Iran attacked Israel with approximately 100 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles and 160 kamikaze drones. Simultaneously with the Iranian attack, approximately 40 missiles and drones were launched at Israel from Lebanon, and individually from Yemen and Iraq. The Israeli army claimed that its warplanes, together with other US-led countries, ‘destroyed more than 20 cruise missiles’ outside Israeli territory. Israel said that most of the attacks were intercepted by air defence systems, but a missile hit a military base in the south. The report noted that no cruise missiles reached Israel (in the strikes) and that the ballistic missiles that did hit caused minor damage to infrastructure.

The EU subsequently condemned the attacks, and some EU countries summoned Iranian ambassadors to their foreign ministries. Finally, the US and the European Union announced that they will start working to add new sanctions to the existing sanctions against Iran for its attack on Israel. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, warned that the Middle East is on the brink of a regional war in the context of Iran-Israel tensions. The foreign ministers of the G7 countries, consisting of the USA, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Canada and Japan, met on the Island of Capri to discuss issues on the international agenda, hosted by Italy, the rotating chair with the participation of the European Union (EU). In his speech here, Borrell stated that the humanitarian disaster in Gaza continues and emphasised that although humanitarian aid has increased recently, it is still very insufficient. Borrell, who asked Israel to react in a measured and cold-blooded manner after the Iranian attack, said: ‘I do not want to exaggerate, but we are on the verge of a regional war in the Middle East that will send shock waves to the rest of the world, especially to Europe. That is why we need to stop this tension.’

Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said that the meetings will consider sanctions against Iran, which has attacked Israel with drones and missiles. Tajani said the following about Iran: We are friends of Israel, but we want to reduce tensions. We are all bearers of the peace initiative. We will also have to discuss how to sanction Iran for the hundreds of drone and missile attacks on Israel. We also need to discuss maritime traffic threatened by the Houthis, another issue in the Middle East, and commercial traffic between Suez and the Red Sea.’

Meanwhile, reports in the Italian press stated that the sanctions against Iran at the meetings of the G7 Foreign Ministers will target sectors and companies that provide materials for the production of drones and missiles.

US officials said Israel struck Iran with a missile in the early morning hours of Friday 19 April 2024, in what appeared to be a retaliatory strike by Israel following weeks of escalating tensions between the two countries. The attack came after weeks of escalating tensions between the regional rivals.

There are conflicting claims about the scale of this attack on the Isfahan region and the extent of the damage. The Iranian state media also appears to have downplayed the significance of this attack.

One of the most provocative weeks of the decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel ended on Friday with a sigh of relief after Tehran announced that it had defused a small attack on its territory by Israeli drones. But while the attack, which Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for, has so far not led to new tensions, it has brought to light the fact that this tit-for-tat confrontation could mark the beginning of a new era in which the two adversaries appear more willing to fight each other directly than through proxies. Government officials on both sides and international experts fear that this could lead to open war.

After a week of Iran-Israel attacks, both sides have been silent for the time being, but it is rumoured that this will usher in a new era in the Middle East. According to experts who spoke to Bloomberg, both sides have now left the era of shadow warfare behind.

The possibility of escalation is much higher

‘This past week has changed the rules of the game that have been played between Israel and Iran since the past,’ said Suzanne Maloney, a former State Department official who is now a vice president at the Brookings Institution. Stating that Iran's massive missile attack on Israel six days ago changed the nature of the conflict that has lasted for years in the region, Maloney said, ‘Even though the Israelis were very, very calibre in their response, I don't think it will be reversed. Tensions are much more likely to escalate.’

After it became clear that the attack on Iran was much more limited than initially feared, oil prices eased on Friday and markets appeared relatively calm. Israel's allies were also rejoicing that Friday's attacks were so small, despite Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's rejection of calls for non-retaliation after Iran neutralised last weekend's unprecedented missile attacks.

Nevertheless, it is also recognised among international officials that this calm could be the calm before the storm. A senior European official warned that the situation was very tense and that, should the conflict between Iran and Israel flare up again in the next few days, there was no assurance that this new flare-up could be contained. At the same time, the New York Times reported that after so many missile attacks from the Israeli side, Israeli fears about Iran have strengthened Netanyahu at home.

According to a survey by Oxford Economics, business concerns about the situation reached their highest level this week since the 7 October attacks. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told Bloomberg, ‘If there is a serious escalation in terms of war in the region, which would mean a much wider regional escalation than we have seen so far, then yes, we could have a serious oil shock worldwide. But we are not at that point yet.’

However, some officials attending the IMF's annual meetings in Washington this week are concerned that their colleagues are in denial about the risk of a wider conflict. These officials requested anonymity. One of the biggest questions now being asked around the world is whether the Netanyahu government will feel compelled to continue striking Iran and its assets elsewhere. The latest flare-up in the Middle East followed a missile attack on 1 April that killed Iranian military commanders at a diplomatic compound in Damascus. Tehran blamed Israel for the attack, but Israel has not confirmed its responsibility.

Iran has also made it clear that it is prepared to do something it has never dared to do before: It launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel from its territory. Although most of the weapons failed, Israel needed the help of the United States and Britain to neutralise the attack. This can be seen as a message that Israel will not be able to repel future attacks on its own. The US made a concerted effort to persuade Netanyahu to accept the win and not to retaliate. Given the limited nature of Thursday night's attack, it can be said that, at least for now, Netanyahu has listened. However, Netanyahu has not always listened to the US in the past.

Norman Roule, a former senior US intelligence official, told Bloomberg: ‘This is a new Middle East, a Middle East where Israel has to wonder every day whether one of its actions will trigger an Iranian missile attack or drone strike aimed directly at Israeli territory.’ A senior Western official said diplomats travelling to Tel Aviv to try to calm Israel's expected reaction to last week's Iranian attack were also concerned about the potential for a full-scale escalation of hostilities on the border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah, one of Tehran's key proxy groups, operates.

Antonio Tajani, Italy's foreign minister, who holds the G-7 presidency this year, made it clear several times during the foreign ministers' summit in Capri that Lebanon is a key to defusing hostilities. ‘Israel should start listening to us and heed the G-7 call,’ he said this week.

Bloomberg Economist Ziad Daoud said in a note: ‘The risk of a wider war has increased as Iran and Israel engage in direct mutual attacks. Whatever the cause, the impact on the global economy would be enormous.’

Israeli officials told the New York Times that Israel had prepared a counter-strike plan before the Iranian airstrike on 13 April. However, plans changed when Iran's attack was larger than expected.

According to three senior Israeli officials, Israel abandoned plans for a much more comprehensive counterstrike against Iran because of intense diplomatic pressure from the United States and other foreign allies, and because an Iranian attack on Israeli territory had been thwarted. Israeli leaders last week discussed bombing various military targets in Iran, including near the Iranian capital Tehran, in retaliation for Iran's 13 April attack, the officials said, asking not to be named to discuss the sensitive discussions.

Such a far-reaching and damaging attack would have been much more difficult for Iran to ignore and would have increased the likelihood of a strong Iranian counter-attack that could bring the Middle East to the brink of a major regional conflict. In the end, after President Joe Biden, along with the foreign ministers of Britain and Germany, urged Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to prevent a wider war, Israel opted for a more limited attack on Friday that avoided significant damage, reducing the likelihood of a war, at least for now.

Nevertheless, according to Israeli officials, this attack showed Iran the breadth and sophistication of Israel's military arsenal.

Israel chose not to send fighter jets

Instead of sending warplanes into Iranian airspace, Israel fired a small number of missiles from aircraft positioned several hundred kilometres to the west on Friday, according to Israeli officials and two senior Western officials familiar with the attack. According to Israeli officials, Israel also sent small attack drones, known as quadcopters, to confuse Iranian air defences. Military installations in Iran have been attacked by such drones several times in recent years, and Iran has said several times that it does not know who the drones belong to.

Officials said one of the missiles fired on Friday hit a strategically important anti-aircraft battery in central Iran, while the other exploded in mid-air. An Israeli official said the second missile was deliberately destroyed to avoid causing too much damage after the Israeli air force realised that the first missile had reached its target. A Western official said it was possible that the missile had simply malfunctioned.

Israel hinted that it could strike Iran's nuclear facilities

Officials said Israel's aim was to allow Iran to continue on its way without responding in kind, and at the same time to signal that it was developing the capability to strike Iran without entering its airspace or even firing its air defence batteries. Israel also hoped to show that it could hit these batteries in central Iran, which is home to several important nuclear facilities, including the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, implying that it could reach these facilities if it tried.

Israel's limited strike raises concerns, Iranians fear war

The road to this attack began on 1 April, when Israel struck the Iranian Embassy complex in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing seven Iranian officials, including three senior military leaders. Iran's lack of retaliation after similar attacks in the past, they say, led Israeli officials to believe that they could continue to carry out such attacks without receiving a significant response from Iran. This time proved to be different: Within a week, Iran began signalling to its neighbours and foreign diplomats that it had reached the limit of its patience and would respond with a major attack on Israel. This multiple missile attack was Iran's first direct attack on Israeli territory.

Two plans were prepared before Iran attacked

According to Israeli officials, during the week of 8 April, Israel began preparing two major military responses to the possibility of an Iranian counter-attack. The first was a defensive operation, coordinated with US Central Command and the British, French and Jordanian armies, to thwart an expected Iranian attack. The second was a major offensive operation in the event of an Iranian attack. Israeli officials said that initially Israeli intelligence believed that Iran was planning to attack with large drones and a swarm of up to 10 ballistic missiles. As the week progressed, this estimate increased to 60 missiles, increasing Israel's desire to launch a powerful counter-attack.

Presented to the cabinet two days ago

Israel's military and political leaders began discussing a strike against Iran as soon as Iran began firing its drones, even before it was known how much damage had been caused. According to an official, the plan was presented to the Israeli War Cabinet by Israeli Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and Air Force Commander Tomer Bar in the early hours of Friday 12 April, two days before the Iranian attack.

Officials said that Israel's intentions changed after Iran attacked. The attack was even bigger than expected: With more than 100 ballistic missiles, 170 drones and some 30 cruise missiles, it was one of the largest such attacks in military history. But Israel's defence, coordinated with pilots from the United States, Britain, France and Jordan, shot down most of the missiles and drones and caused only limited damage on the ground, reducing the need for a rapid response. The two officials said there were questions about whether an Israeli counterattack while the offensive was underway would risk the focus on defence.

Biden's phone call was effective

According to three Israeli and Western officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, the turning point was an early morning phone call between Netanyahu and Biden in which the US president encouraged the Israeli leader to see the successful defence as a victory that required no other response. Israelis said Netanyahu was opposed to a swift retaliation after the call.

According to one senior Western official, the next day the Israeli government began signalling to its foreign allies that it still planned to retaliate, but in a limited way, far behind what it had previously planned. Instead of a broad counter-offensive that could convince Iran's leaders that they had no choice but to respond in kind, Israeli officials said they had agreed on a plan that they hoped would tell Iranian officials something without publicly humiliating them.

CONCLUSION

The events that started with the death of 7 people, two of whom were in the rank of general, from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Army after Israel's airstrike on Iran's consulate building in Damascus on 1 April continued with Iran's response to Israel on 13 April with hundreds of kamikaze drones, ballistic and cruise missiles.

According to the Israeli public broadcaster KAN, Iran attacked Israel with a total of 290 weapons vehicles, including approximately 100 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles and 160 kamikaze drones.

On Friday 19 April 2024, in the early morning hours, Iran was hit by a missile, which appears to have been a retaliatory attack by Israel after weeks of escalating tensions between the two countries.

Both sides have now left the era of shadow warfare behind.

Iran's lack of retaliation after similar Israeli attacks in the past had led Israeli officials to believe that they could continue to launch such attacks without any significant response from Iran. However, Iran's attack on 13 April with 290 combat vehicles can be considered as a sign that this will not be the case from now on. Israel will have to think twice about attacking Iranian officials in the same way as before.

With the attack, which we think Israel carried out in the early morning hours of Friday 19 April 2024, Israel implied that it could somehow hit Iran's most protected air defence systems and nuclear facilities. Israel also managed to show that it could hit these batteries in central Iran, which is home to several important nuclear facilities, including the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, and implied that it could reach these facilities if it tried.

Iranian air defence systems were ineffective.

It has shown that Israeli aircraft are stationed close to Iran and that it can carry out a mission attack inside Iran at any time with these aircraft.

This limited attack by Israel on Friday 19 April 2024 has raised concerns on the Iranian side and at the same time created fear of war among the Iranian people.

Israel will have to wonder whether an Iranian missile attack or drone attack directly on Israeli territory will be triggered as a result of an action it has taken or will take every day.

With Iran and Israel engaging in direct mutual attacks, the risk of a wider war in the Middle East has increased. Since the global effects of such a war are considered to involve major states, it is obvious that it will bring world trade, oil prices, global economy and increasing US-ChINA and US-Russia tensions to the limit. Its impact on the world will be much greater than thought.

It should not be forgotten that this air of tranquillity between the parties may also mean the calm before the storm. If this atmosphere of calm is somehow disturbed, it will be very difficult to bring this situation under control. With the ongoing massacre in Gaza, the region will suddenly turn into a hell that could engulf many nations.

After so many missile attacks on the Israeli side, the fears of the Israeli people about Iran will also strengthen Netanyahu in his country.

On the US side, the events that started in universities can be seen as signals that the massacre in Gaza will not be limited to the Middle East, but may turn into a chaos that may involve the USA and Europe.