Energy Transition: New Process and Different Energy Security Challenges

The world has had to adapt itself to many phenomena that emerged with the impact of the 1973 Global Oil Crisis. Energy security is undoubtedly at the forefront of these phenomena. Therefore, almost every state has had to confront the problems of energy security, which were perceived as a theoretical threat, in practice with the events of the 1973 Global Oil Crisis. 

In this context, the current dominant actors of the international system put various action plans into action and tried to survive the crisis environment triggered by a series of threats within the scope of energy security that negatively affected their national security at a vital level. One of the main initiatives within the scope of the action plans put into practice in this period is diversification strategies. 

Within the scope of diversification strategies, most of the states have adopted a number of practices in terms of sources and suppliers. However, the results achieved under diversification strategies have been positive in the short term. Therefore, it is possible to state that in the medium and long term, these strategies did not have the expected impact. 

The outbreak of new natural gas-based crises since the early 2000s and the fact that different dimensions of energy security have become one of the main agenda items of international politics are indicators of this. In this context, it is possible to state that the threats within the scope of energy security have adapted to the conditions of the era and continue to pose a threat to the national security of states. At this point, it is not only the policy preferences of states during the Oil Crisis that can be criticized. Because the most rational option at that time was indeed diversification strategies. Therefore, instead of discussing the adequacy of the strategies of that period, it would be more appropriate to consider the development of energy security problems in the historical process and the fact that they continue to be a national security threat for the state today from different perspectives. In other words, in order to eliminate the threats within the scope of energy security that continue today, the issue should be examined in a multidimensional manner from different dimensions and in the light of contemporary approaches. This will make it easier to identify and get to the root of the problems for effective solutions. 

In short, identifying the problem in this process is an extremely critical step in preventing the repetition of past mistakes and producing effective solutions. Therefore, ignoring all these is inevitable that the threats within the scope of energy security, which have been made more important by the energy crises that marked the last quarter of the 20th century, will continue to be a problem in different ways today.

It is possible to explain the failure to achieve fully effective results from the initiatives within the scope of attempts to solve energy security problems with a number of factors. However, before addressing these factors, it would be useful to underline that the reasons for the persistence of energy security problems in the post-oil crisis period should be evaluated beyond "simple mistakes" such as the strategies and political approaches followed. Because, basing the periodic emergence of problems that can be considered within the scope of energy security since the oil crisis and the fact that they continue to pose a vital threat to the national security of states solely on policy mistakes will cause the outputs to be extremely limited in scope and the positive results to be only short-term, contrary to the expectations of effective solutions. Therefore, the analyses related to this issue need to be conducted from a broader perspective and in depth in the light of different approaches.

Today, both policy makers and many esteemed members of the academia are acting as if they are unaware of this fact and preparing the ground for the repetition of the mistakes made in previous periods. The recent developments in the so-called European energy crisis, which has been deepening, are one of the indicators of this. The developments in this process and the steps taken towards the future have brought two main phenomena to the agenda in the context of energy security. The first of these is undoubtedly the realization that becoming more dependent on natural gas, whose consumption has been increasing globally as an alternative after the 1973 Oil Crisis, could turn into a serious energy security problem. In fact, especially Russia's suspension of natural gas flow to Europe caused energy prices to rise significantly across the continent and the supply shortage to turn into a national security issue. Undoubtedly, the main reason for these developments is the inadequacy and ineffectiveness of past practices in solving energy security problems.

Another situation that has come to light in the context of the European energy crisis is related to the developments in connection with the ineffectiveness and inadequacy of past attempts to solve energy security problems. In this context, it is a critical development that many states around the world, especially the EU, have initiated a radical transformation movement in the energy order with the idea of not repeating the mistakes of the past. This transformation process, which is called energy transition, is a radical initiative in terms of energy security. In fact, this transformation seems to be a highly rational option in terms of demonstrating that the threats posed by energy security in many dimensions such as supply and environment can be overcome. Nevertheless, it is not ignored that it carries some risks within itself. This is because such a radical transformation process is only possible if certain requirements are met. Therefore, it is extremely wrong to consider the energy transition process as an ordinary initiative.

The energy transition process has undoubtedly caused very positive repercussions around the world. However, it is obvious that radical changes in the energy order will not be as easy as expected. Therefore, it is extremely important that the process is carried out in a meticulous, planned and programmed manner. In this context, the planning phase is a critical process. Because ignoring this critical stage will directly lead to shortsightedness. Another factor that gains importance with planning is undoubtedly related to the expectations for the immediate realization of the energy transition. It is indisputable that an expectation in this direction can lead to serious negativities and irreversible mistakes. Therefore, the idea that the energy transition is a process should be adopted by all segments of society. In this context, it is possible to state that it is more rational to evaluate the energy transition as a gradual transformation process carried out in a long-term, programmed and planned manner.

It is extremely important to carry out the energy transition process with short and medium-term plans in the context of practices. However, it should not be ignored that the positive and effective results of the practices in the process will manifest themselves in the medium and long term. Because fast and superficial strategies can cause serious damage in such a radical transformation movement. At this point, the importance of the transition process in energy transformation emerges. In fact, the positive outputs to be obtained from the transformation process in the medium and long term are only possible with the healthy management of the transition process covering the short and medium term. Therefore, the steps to be taken in the transition process should be extremely careful. On the other hand, we are witnessing the EU's attempts to accelerate the process, especially with the energy crisis. In light of all these, it is possible to argue that the EU will face problems in the medium and long term.

It is of utmost importance that the energy transition process is carried out in a phased manner within the framework of comprehensive plans and programs. In this context, instead of a direct transformation, it is necessary to act in line with a change after the transition process. Because it is usual for such a radical transformation process to encounter serious obstacles and problems in the later stages. However, these obstacles and problems will become foreseeable and can be overcome when the process is carried out in a planned and programmed manner. Therefore, the importance of being prepared for possible situations that may arise in the process emerges at this point. However, in line with the strategic management approach, comprehensive analyses should be carried out in relation to the preparation of action plans to be implemented against possible scenarios. However, in light of recent developments, such as the EU's acceleration of the transformation process, it seems that this requirement may be ignored.

A number of overlooked and potentially problematic realities related to the energy transition have started to come to light. The first of these is undoubtedly the acceleration of transition-related initiatives. At first glance, this seems to be a positive development in terms of shortening the energy transition process, but this orientation will inevitably lead to a number of problems in the future. This is because the energy transition aims to replace the existing system, which has been functioning in one way or another for centuries, with a new system based on completely different equations. However, this is not as easy as one might think. Therefore, it is extremely wrong to expect states to adapt to the new system immediately. States will undoubtedly adapt to the new order, but this can only be achieved gradually. In this context, it is critically important that the transition process is carried out in a healthy manner.

It is already extremely wrong to expect that states will quickly adapt to the process in relation to the energy transition. In this context, along with the transition process, it becomes imperative to build the necessary infrastructure for transformation. This is simply because an energy system that operates on the basis of renewable energy sources differs significantly compared to fossil fuels. Therefore, a new order has to be built. In this context, a number of needs arise. Financial investments are at the forefront of these needs. In fact, trillions of dollars of financial investments are required for the energy transition. Despite this, it is seen that many states, especially the EU, do not make sufficient investments in energy transformation. Considering that the Paris Climate Agreement budget will reach 100 billion dollars in 2035, the inadequacy of these investments becomes clearer.

Along with investments, another issue for energy transition is related to rare earth elements and critical minerals. In fact, unlike the fossil energy system, there is a need to supply raw materials in this context in a system based on renewable energy sources. For example, for the production of wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles and energy storage units, critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, germanium as well as raw materials that are found in small quantities in nature and are therefore called rare earth elements are needed. Therefore, there is a significant increase in demand in this context. For example, the five-fold increase in lithium demand in the last few years is one of the indicators of this. On the other hand, the increase in demand for these already scarce raw materials during the transformation process further complicates the situation. Two main problems arise in relation to this. One is the insufficient supply in the face of increasing demand, and the other is the significant increase in prices. For example, the price of cobalt, which was sold at 60 thousand dollars per ton in 2017, is estimated to hover around 100 thousand dollars in 2030.

Another problem in the energy transition process is related to technological adaptation to a renewable energy-based system. At this stage, the significant technological differentiation of these structures from fossil energy systems emerges as an important problem. As it is known, renewable energy-based facilities are "smart" structures that require high technology. Therefore, in order for these systems to be operated properly, it is extremely important to be at a sufficient level in terms of high technological equipment and IT. On the other hand, the fact that the energy obtained from renewable energy sources today is affected by the hours of increased consumption and changes in seasonal conditions, and the fluctuations in the course of the flow give the impression that we are not yet at a sufficient level.

Another problem in the energy transformation process is related to technological development. In this context, it is possible to state that the functioning of what we can characterize as smart systems is largely carried out with high technological equipment and automation systems, triggering a number of problems. It is possible to consider the increase in the number of cyber-attacks worldwide with technological development in this context. Obviously, renewable energy systems are under the threat of cyber-attacks just like other automation systems. Therefore, the fact that cyber threats have become a national security issue worldwide and that effective solutions have not yet been produced makes the healthy functioning of renewable energy systems a matter of debate. Even the helplessness in the face of the Stuxnet incident, which targeted only one of the nuclear power plants in Iran in previous years, supports the rightness of opening the issue to discussion.

In conclusion, threats within the scope of energy security have a dynamism that can adapt according to the conditions of the era. In this context, in light of today's developments, it is possible to state that energy security will threaten the national security of states for a while. Therefore, it should not be ignored that radical transformations may trigger some energy security problems. In fact, it is currently unlikely to completely eliminate energy security problems. However, it is possible to minimize their negative impacts and damages. However, this is only possible through global cooperation. 

In this context, a global cooperation mechanism needs to be built. However, this mechanism should be different from the current ones. Because today's mechanisms are completely ineffective in the face of such significant threats. Their most important ineffectiveness is in terms of supervision and sanctions. Therefore, it is vital to overcome these deficiencies in the new mechanisms to be established. In this context, it is possible to state that global cooperation carried out under a roof where supervision and sanction mechanisms are effectively operated will yield positive results in solving energy security problems.