What is the cost of the Russia - Ukraine war?

Every activity is a cost.

Even if you do sports, every activity has a cost, from the sports shoes you wear to the clothes you wear, from the club you belong to to the matches you organise together.

Wars between communities or peoples will of course also have a cost.

What is this cost and how is it calculated?

Ukraine's losses;

Since 24 February 2022, Ukraine's leader Zelenski, who has been fighting against Russia since 24 February 2022, has lost 27 percent of Ukraine's territory during this ongoing war. In addition, Zelensky, who announced that he would not step back against the Russian army, declared to the world that they would resist until the last man.

Due to the ongoing war, the Ukrainian army has given 100 thousand dead and 8 thousand prisoners so far. The number of wounded is unknown. During this war, 1 million Ukrainians were recruited, while 8 million Ukrainians went abroad under the status of "temporary refugee".

In 2021, Volodymyr Zelenski, the president of Ukraine, where 43 million people live, stated in another statement that a total of 1 trillion dollars is needed for the reconstruction of the destruction and targets hit in his country, that is, for Ukraine to return to its old days.

This money is more than 2 times more than Turkey's foreign debt of 445 billion dollars as of September 2022.

Turkey's total export revenue for 2021 is $225.4 billion.  Only 4 times the amount of money Turkey earned due to the goods and services it exported throughout 2021 can restore Ukraine.

2021 According to the estimate that the global trade volume was 22 trillion dollars, it is a reconstruction cost corresponding to one in 22 of the world trade.

These losses are only the losses suffered by the country of Ukraine.

What about Russia's losses?

According to the statements made to the press by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the total combat losses of the Russian army as of 29 October are approximately as follows.

Personnel - about 70250 (+550) people,

Tanks - 2659 (+19),

Armoured fighting vehicles - 5401 (+23),

Artillery systems - 1708 (+9),

Multiple barrel rocket launcher - 380 (+1),

Air defence equipment - 195 (+3),

Aircraft - 273 (+1),

Helicopters - 252 (+1),

Operational-tactical level UAVs - 1406 (+5),

Cruise missiles - 351 (+0),

Ships/boats - 16 (+0) pcs,

Automotive equipment and tankers - 4107 (+19),

Special equipment - 152 (+1).

General Mike Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a speech at the Economic Club of New York on 10 November 2022: The number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded is more than 100,000.

The situation is probably the same on the Ukrainian side.

General Milley went on to say that they estimate that up to 40 thousand civilians have lost their lives in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is the highest estimate of dead or wounded ever made by a Western official and means a total of 240,000 casualties including those who lost their lives.

During the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has been going on for about 10 months, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet

The sinking of Moscow, the blowing up of the Kerch Bridge, the shooting down of warships in Sevastopol, the downed fighter planes or the killed commanders were always in the news.

Until Monday, 5 December 2022. 

On that day, Ukrainian forces attacked Soviet-made Tu-141 aircraft 500 kilometres away, making them travel hundreds of kilometres. The war has now spread beyond Ukraine, reaching the most unreachable points of Russia.

The reflection of this war between the two countries on the world has emerged as increasing energy and grain costs worldwide. With the sanction decisions taken by the EU countries, natural gas, heating and production problems started to be experienced in the EU countries.

For EU countries dependent on natural gas in production, commercial production has also become problematic or impossible.

The destruction of some parts of the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipelines built under the sea between Germany and Russia before they were even put into use is the best example of the fact that the war is not limited to two countries. 

Moreover, due to the sanctions against Russia, many world giant companies had to leave Russia.

The global warming that the whole world has experienced in recent years, the fact that irrigated agriculture is done less and that fertiliser prices and grain prices have increased in addition to the increasing need for water have caused additional problems for countries facing the danger of drought and hunger.

The most important of these problems is the problem of "migration". In recent years, millions of people from countries such as Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan have tried to go to European countries by sea or land, especially due to the PKK, YPG and ISIS terrorism in the south-east of our country. In addition to these migrations, millions of Ukrainian and Russian people have also been added to the list of migrants due to war.

The war has not only affected the people of the migrating countries, but millions of people in the destinations have also been indirectly affected by these migrations. Due to the increasing human population, house sale prices and rental prices have increased excessively in some cities.

In our country, especially our cities such as Antalya and Istanbul provinces, which receive intensive foreign migration, have also been affected by this situation. Civil servants working in these cities live in high rent increases and excessive increases in house sales prices.

The economies of all countries of the world have been shaken and the prices of food products have increased due to the war and inflation has increased. In particular, the prices of wheat, corn, sugar, oil and fertiliser have increased excessively.

With the increase in diesel prices and energy prices, the increase in fertiliser prices has caused the fields in our country not to be planted and less products to be obtained due to the cost increases in agriculture.

The prices of some products have increased 2-3 times in our country along with the world.

As Ukraine and Russia are producers and exporters of wheat, corn and sugar beet, as well as producers of nitrogen fertiliser needed by the world farmers, the fertiliser produced in these countries remained in the ports in Ukraine and Russia where the war continued for months.

Thanks to the Grain Corridor agreement led by Turkey as a conciliator, grain exports started from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to countries in need.  

As a result of the diversion of flights over Ukraine to the airspace of other countries, airline transport and transport costs were also affected.

In 2020, airlines, which had a hard time due to the coronavirus and pandemic worldwide, also had their profitability seriously affected due to the increasing energy prices as well as the Ukrainian airspace problems.

Even the German airline giant Lufthansa had to keep its personnel and aircraft on the ground for months without any technical problems. It continued to compensate for the losses by partnering with the German government and to survive economically.

Despite the military and economic aid provided to Ukraine by the USA, the EU countries, the UK and other countries and the sanctions against Russia, there is no sign that the war will end in the near future.

Moreover, since the world arms companies see Ukraine as a testing ground for the weapons they produce, it has begun to be expressed between the lines that the war will intensify even more and may even lead to nuclear weapons.

The ships carrying Russian oil, which faced new sanctions due to the EU countries' decision to impose a ceiling price on Russian oil, faced insurance problems in addition to the previous problems. 

The international companies insuring the ships announced that the insurance letters demanded by Turkey for the passage through the straits could not be provided. Therefore, dozens of Russian oil tankers have accumulated in the straits.

The Russian-Ukrainian war has led to an increase in the energy, food, health, production, defence, migration and shelter problems that the world is still experiencing. Germany has decided to create a new fund of 100 billion euros for the modernisation of its armed forces.

Our country and our people are also experiencing the problems and feeling their effects painfully.

The amount of extra money transferred to oil producers due to oil and its derivatives alone is 2 trillion dollars.

From the events and statements made; It expresses to us that 1/5 of the 2021 Global trade volume of 22 trillion dollars has been lost due to the Russian - Ukrainian war in our region and that it is possible to experience additional greater losses in the future.

In addition to these expenditures, the addition of issues such as food, security, the cost of migration are costs that can only be calculated after the end of the Russian - Ukrainian war. There is no compensation for the pain and loss of life.

Our country and our people, who are experiencing regional and inter-country problems most intensely, should get rid of these problems as soon as possible.

Turkey, with its friendly and mediator role between the warring countries in the recent period and with all the national and international institutions and domestic organisations it is involved in, should continue to make intensive efforts for the solution of the problems in the region as soon as possible.

Atatürk's "Peace at home, peace in the world" is our greatest guide in this regard.

References

https://tim.org.tr/files/downloads/Strateji_Raporlari/TIM%20I%CC%87hracat%20Raporu%202022.pdf

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3756097-real-costs-of-russias-ukraine-war/

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-ballooning-costs-of-the-ukraine-war/