When Will Prices Go Down in Turkey?

Inflation Monster:

High inflation, the monster of inflation, prices have skyrocketed... An economic problem that we have known, heard about and lived through for a long time, not just today.

We all live, but we can't quite perceive it, what is this inflation? Price increase? Excessive increase in prices? As many wonder, I am also wondering when these prices will go down.

When I want to understand something, I like to think with a metaphor that my mind will understand more, I perceive it more easily.

I remembered a moment when I stopped a little ahead, backed up and continued on my way, knowing that it was forbidden at an intersection that I missed. I'm really sorry, I'm actually a driver who follows the rules, but I had to turn from a very far place to get on the same road again, I was in a bit of a hurry. I also burned my quads, when no vehicle was passing, I put reverse gear and went as far as to turn to the intersection that I missed slowly and continued on the road, forgive me.

The rise in prices, that is, inflation, is like a vehicle in motion. Whether the vehicle moves forward at 5 km or 100 km, it is moving. From a market perspective, there is more or less inflation. In inflation, prices do not stop, they increase. When the vehicle stops, that is, the speed becomes zero, the inflation is zeroed in the same way. Here, the prices are fixed at whichever level they are. Just like where we came from while we were on the move, we are there when the vehicle stops.

In order for the prices to go down, we have to put in reverse gear and go backwards, negative inflation is necessary, is it possible? Seems not to me.

This is true for all countries, I remember they bought a horse for 1 dollar in old cowboy movies, it must be worth a pretty dollar today, so there is inflation in America too.

There must be inflation, otherwise the dynamics of trade deteriorates, it is always necessary to move forward, negative inflation and stagflation have different effects. Just saying let's move forward, you should not exceed the speed limit, excessive speed is a disaster.

They say shiraze, it is the strip that holds the pages together in hardcover books, high inflation shifts our shiraze, we fall apart, it is not easy to take control again. It is not easy, no matter who is in charge.

So what happened, even though these risks were known, they tried to cut interest rates by saying what is the interest rate. Since they have been in charge all these years, well, we can guess that they are not completely empty in the management of the economy, their knowledge is sufficient anyway. What happened? Why did they do such a thing?

Drifting Away From The Path:

It's as if inflation is just a result of something else, the main point of which is slipping. When you are at the management level, you are prone to be deceived when there is a narrow circle that constantly flatters you because you are the supreme lord, you know everything best, there is no one greater than you, you are the world leader, you are prone to be deceived, you can do as much as you can, there are so many issues that even if you are very smart. Time is not enough, even if you work all day, never sleep, work until the morning, it is not enough. At some point, at some point, control is lost.

Then, after the recent events, you look at the surveys and say that we will send these asylum seekers to get a solution to the public's reaction, then when the voices rise at the business people meeting, you have to turn around saying no, we will not send them. So do not worry, dear business people, do not withdraw your support from me, you are trying to find a solution to their reaction, so that we will not touch your cheap labor force.

Scrolling control ability. Let's put aside the prejudices because of what has been done so far, even if you have good intentions, let me say that when you look at our situation, let's say you mess up when you want to do something good. Let's say you are good, the people around you are bad, but now it is very difficult to get together when the şiraze slips. That's what happens with one person.

Yes, anyway, back to the topic. Will the prices go down? If so, when will this miraculous event happen? We started the conversation with these questions.

Japan's Case:

I studied a little Japan. I think we have a lot to learn from Japan, both from its good achievements and from its mistakes.

Japan's annual National Consumer Price Index hit the 25% mark in 1974-1975, then declined to 2.8% in 1979. In 1980, it rose a little again and returned around 8%. In 1987, it turned negative and became -1.10%. Then it immediately started to rise again and increased to 4% in 1991. In the following years, it was sometimes positive, sometimes negative, but a maximum of 4%, a minimum of -2.4%. After decreasing to a negative value such as -0.5% for a while in 2016, the positive values ​​​​to date, the April 2022 value is 1.2%.

Japan is third in the world with $5.1 trillion in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) largest economies ranking, which was updated on February 17. We are in 21st place for now, but at the end of 2022 we are falling to 22nd place.

Japan started with 2000 dollars as per capita income in the 1970s, this value rose to the level of 9400 dollars until 1980, then increased significantly in the 1990s to over 25,000 dollars, in the 2000s it went even higher, to 39,000 dollars, and in 2010 it reached the level of 9400 dollars. They peaked and reached a per capita income of over 45,000 dollars. Its national income in 2010 peaked at 5.8 trillion dollars.

Later? Then the national income starts to decrease, of course not that much, as I said, it is still the third in the world, it has just regressed to 5.1 trillion dollars. If I said it has regressed, its per capita income is still over 40,000 dollars.

But they regret that they have fallen from second to third. Because, while China was down with 1.2 trillion dollars in the 2000s, it first surpassed Japan with 6 trillion dollars in 2010, and today it has made a serious attack with 16.9 trillion dollars and settled in the second place just below the USA. America is naturally a giant economy of 22.9 trillion dollars.

Why couldn't Japan take the offensive? There are many reasons, America's influence, control, China's capacity, whatever you do will go further, on the one hand there is a human resource of 1.439 billion, on the other hand 126 million, one is a giant country of 9.6 million km2, the other all 378 thousand. km2 island country. The reasons are many, but one of them they call negative inflation. It destabilized the economy. Think about it, you produce a product with the intention of making a profit, you calculate the cost, then you have to sell it at a loss, because its price has decreased, its value has fallen below its cost, no, I am not selling it, you will have to sell it at a loss, you have to downsize your business gradually, you have to downsize. This is what happened to Japan after 2010.

Well, in this case, if you spit down the beard, if you spit up the mustache, what are we going to do?

Leadership in Economics and Management:

The point is to move forward with firm steps, not to falter. These things do not happen with instant decisions. Pragmatic leadership takes pragmatic decisions, most of them illuminating decisions, however it suits them at the moment.

However, the economy is a fine-tuning business. As I wrote a while ago about "critical decision moments" in volleyball, we will learn to fine-tune by working hard. We will turn the steering wheel to the right or left as necessary so that it does not go out of the way, but if we turn it slowly and suddenly, the vehicle will go off the road and we will roll over.

Prices have now had to come to a level and stabilize, let alone go down, I think we will spend a lot of time to stabilize, even if it slows down a bit, even that is a benefit. No one knows how far it will go. The chiefs don't know either. Nonsense statements have the opposite effect, even an innocent statement that we will give credit and ensure that the unfinished houses are completed causes house prices to skyrocket and the dollar rate jumps.

Yes, as I said, I think prices will not decrease, let's not wait in vain, even fruit and vegetable prices will not decrease this year due to seasonal effects, due to the increase in production costs and indirect production decrease. Because there is no trust left, they have already lost control, they try not to show it, but the order they have established in their dream world does not comply with the realities. No matter what they do, it never puts yeast in the lake. They are doing a thousand kinds of experiments on us, just in case it works.

I always say, system problem again, incompetent staff, plus pragmatism.

Still, it's good to stay calm, let's not panic, the most dangerous poison of the market is panic, there is an antidote to others. What's left for the elections anyway, it's almost time for good days to come again. We will get through these troubles with a common mind, don't worry.

Love and respect from Moscow to everyone.