Where is the Turkish Economy Going?

Do you know what a swamp is? Once you are in the swamp, it is not easy to get out. The more you move, the deeper you sink.

If you say that it is better not to move and let the sun go down, this time the swamp will slowly suck you in. So in both cases you will end up at the bottom.

There is only one way out. 

Someone will save you. 

Either he or she will extend a branch, you will hold on to it and throw yourself out, or the person who intends to save you will use force to pull you out and save you.

I don't know who will save us from this swamp, because we are really stuck in it. The more we move, the deeper we sink. 

I don't know if you have seen it? 

For the first time in a long time, I came across someone who analyzed our economic situation properly. 

Economist Cevdet Aksoy, who was the guest of Mr. Fatih Altaylı, explained our economic situation very well. 

I don't know if the topics he explained were understandable for everyone. Because while he was explaining the topics, he also had the disease of excessive use of foreign words, which is the general disease of many people who have studied abroad. 

He also used various technical graphs that no one would normally understand, so his presentation was too technical for most of us to understand. 

So I don't know how understandable this interview was, but I summarized our situation briefly at the beginning of this article.

In short, we are stuck in a quagmire, says Mr. Aksoy.

I have already watched this interview three times, I don't want to miss anything in the details, but each time I listen to it, I get a little more depressed.

On the other hand, I listen to the news during the day.

Yes, I understand that the government has made a decision on EYT. 

There will be no age requirement. 

Since EYT means those who are stuck in retirement age, it was against the nature of things to have an age limit once again. So if they had put an age limit once again, I think they would have been the talk of the town.

I am aware that this issue is actually an injustice done by the state to those who have the right to retire. However, I would like to object to the solution of the issue within the scope of the electoral economy. 

Of course, it is good news for everyone, I am also very happy that this issue has been resolved, although I do not know the details, it is very good that the problem has been resolved in some way.

However, as I said, the fact that the solution is within the scope of the electoral economy raises questions in my mind about what impact it will have after the elections. 

Moreover, in today's inflationary environment, it is another mystery to me to what extent the so-called resolved issues can be resolved. Behind the dazzling show of the magician, I really don't know how much of what they really deserve the EYT people will get.

Nevertheless, I wish them well.

The government has really opened its coffers these days in order to look cute to the voters. As a result of these practices, no one is talking about how the economy, which is already going from bad to worse after the elections, will recover.

As for me, after Mr. Aksoy's presentation, I was really scared.

If the opposition comes to power, it is certain that there will be a return to classical or so-called orthodox economic policies, but it is the low-income and fixed-income earners who will bear the brunt of these policies. Austerity policies, as they are famously called. 

The opposition is not going to implement the current government's economic system, the so-called heterodox economic model, when they come to power. 

I'm sure everyone feels deeply what this model has brought us to. I am a bit confused whether austerity policies are the solution that the opposition would prefer as soon as they come to power. If they continue with a populist perspective, then they will be no different from the current government.

So let's wait and see what kind of decision they will make on the management of the economy.

In the event that the current government somehow succeeds in the elections and remains in power, they will continue with the current method with the idea that the method they apply is approved by the voters, and this is probably the worst scenario that I understand from Mr. Aksoy's narrative. Because the policies implemented today, which are really like a swamp, are already pulling us towards the bottom. Continuing with the same policies will definitely sink us.

Will the government wise up and change its economic method?

I don't think so, if they win the elections, as I said, first of all they will see this as an approval. 

By the time they realize that things are really getting worse, the situation will already be irreversible. 

After that, even if someone wants to save us, they probably won't be able to.

In short, for those who have not seen Mr. Aksoy's presentation, I recommend it to those who are interested, as I said, it is a bit technical, but there is valuable information in his presentation.

Love and respect to everyone from Moscow