Growth? Development?

Let's grow up a bit.

When we look at the concept of growth in the dictionary, it has several different meanings. The first meaning is to increase the size of something, to increase in size. Another meaning is to grow up, that is, to get older over time, to end childhood. Another one is for humans to get bigger depending on age. Increasing in number is also called growing up. The expansion of a country by gaining territory is also called growth. And gaining importance and value is also called growth.

But let's examine the economic growth of a country today.

Turkey has fallen to 21st place in terms of economic size among other countries in the world as of the end of 2021. By the end of 2022, it will have fallen to 22nd place. This information is based on IMF estimates. I don't know how they calculate it, but the assessment is based on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in dollars. In 2021, our calculated GDP was 796 billion dollars. Since the dollar exchange rate is constantly changing, I think it is not that easy to calculate the exact value. At least the dollar revenues from exports and tourism are not affected by exchange rate differences, but the euro/dollar exchange rate is also volatile and the dollar/TL exchange rate is also volatile. Domestic GDP accounts include both euro-denominated revenues and, to a large extent, domestic Turkish lira revenues. The excessive depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the dollar will definitely negatively affect this optimistic forecast in the IMF's October 12, 2021 report for the end of 2022. Therefore, I have serious doubts about their ability to calculate the correct value.

Having stated this reservation from the beginning, let's start analyzing the issue in a little more depth.

Yes, according to the reports released by our government, we are constantly growing. According to the latest report released by TurkStat, GDP grew by 7.3% in the first quarter of 2022 (January - March period) compared to the first quarter of 2021. Of course, this growth rate is in Turkish lira.

In the first quarter of 2021, GDP in dollar terms was 188 billion 65 million dollars, while in the same period of 2022, that is, in the first quarter of 2022, GDP was 179 billion 800 million dollars. In other words, the ratio is 179800/188065=95.6%. This means that we have actually shrunk by 4.40% in dollar terms.

We are a bit overwhelmed with numbers, but what does this mean, I thought we were growing?

This is what it means to call red pink. Information embellished with pink colors is presented to the people through the controlled press and "WE GROWED!" is blared everywhere. And everyone believes it!

Let's be fair, let's take a look at the GNP values in dollar terms in the first quarter of 2020. In the first quarter of 2020, this value was 176 billion 591 million dollars. In other words, we actually grew by 6.50% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year.

When we look at the first quarter of 2019, it was 172 billion 414 million dollars. In other words, we grew by 2.42% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year.

But the value of 2018 for the same period was 208 billion 954 million dollars. In other words, in 2019, we shrank by 17.5% in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Don't blame this shrinkage on the COVID pandemic. The first case of COVID outbreak was seen in Turkey in March 2020. Even though the pandemic started in the first quarter of 2020, we have already grown. This extreme shrinkage belongs to the previous year! It doesn't matter, I don't care. Whatever the reason, we shrunk extremely in the first quarter of 2019.

What I mean is that one should not mix apples and oranges when making comparisons. World rankings are based on dollars. So it should be essential for us to make our growth rates in dollar terms. It is not good for anyone to dance the halay with the Turkish Lira rates because we have grown. It may only serve to make the fanatical fans who say that if he does it, Reyis will do it, rejoice in vain. These are just foot games of politicians. Attempts to deceive the public. But is anyone fooled? Of course there are. But as I said, people are being deceived and I hope that one day sooner or later they will realize that they are being deceived.

If you notice, I made this comparison on the basis of the first quarters. I wanted to see what is really going on. But my purpose in this article is not to compare GNP.

Even though our GNP is increasing every year in dollar terms, in other words, even though we are growing as a country, it doesn't really matter.

It is more important that this total income is properly and equitably distributed within the country. The fact that some people have very high incomes and others have low incomes at the starvation level is bad for human tragedies and bad for the peace of the country. It should be essential that citizens also get a share from growth. Income justice and living standards should be the basis.

Also, no matter how much you are growing as a country, if other countries are growing faster than you, then you will still lag behind in the rankings.

And growth doesn't really have a big impact on welfare, because it is possible to grow by borrowing. It is possible to grow by spending. It is even possible to build, tear down, do the same thing again, and you grow again. Growth calculations are very interesting calculations. On paper, you can appear to have grown, even though you are still standing still. In fact, the growth mentioned in these growth calculations has nothing to do with the dictionary meaning of growth that I wrote at the beginning. Especially the rates calculated on meaningless bases that are a mixture of apples and oranges have no significance.

Growth is like the electricity meter connected to the air compressor you connect to inflate the balloon. Whether you inflate the balloon or deflate it, the electricity meter is constantly increasing. You should look at the balloon, not the electricity meter, to see if it's growing. If it's inflating, the balloon is inflating. The amount of electricity consumed per hour cannot be proof that we are growing.

Development is another concept. Growing does not mean we are developing. Development means prosperity. It means income equality.

We all have the right to benefit from the blessings of technology. When we develop, we can both benefit from the blessings of technology and live in peace. But peace of mind also means peace of mind.

If I have a lot of debts, for example, I cannot be at peace. So borrowing and growing doesn't work, it still doesn't give peace of mind.

But if we are developed, we will have reached a certain level of income and we will be able to look to the future with confidence. Then we can sleep soundly when we lay our heads on our pillows.

This is a race, the modern level that humanity has reached is the level that our country should be at. In fact, it is in our hearts that we should be determining the modern level, or at least contributing to it.

But for some reason those in power think that growth is more important than development. They want us to grow by borrowing and spending, no matter what. I wouldn't say anything if they could, but they have messed that up too. Lying to the public with false information cannot hide what is actually happening.

I don't want to take too much of your time. Growth is a good thing, but it is also important to consider development. Development requires different investments.

We need to plan our future and you need to move forward according to the plan. And we need to make sure that this progress brings prosperity to the people.

Love and regards to everyone from Moscow