The Harari Perspective: The Future Will Come One Day

I have previously told you about the author Yuval Noah Harari and stated that I would write articles about him. In this article, I would like to share with you the views and thoughts of Harari, whom I see as one of the greatest intellectuals of our time, about the near future. 

The world population is expected to exceed 10 billion by 2050. Anyone who is even vaguely aware of the possible consequences of the climate crisis is well aware that the outlook is not good at all. But how bad is the world situation really? Apparently much worse than we know. Biodiversity is declining. More than 150 studies on extinction and the climate crisis have been conducted and published. This research is needed to observe possible future trends, to clarify the seriousness of humanity's predicament and to get a clear picture of the crises that urgently need to be addressed.

We are grappling with problems that have developed due to the current economic order, shaped by our consumption habits and the rate of population growth. But we also know that in the coming years, these will not get better, they will get worse. The damage will be felt by future generations for centuries after us, threatening the survival of all species. We humans may not like the research conducted by the 17 scientists Harari draws on, which forces him to consider pessimistic scenarios for the future, and may even be frightening. But in order to understand the horror of the crisis facing humanity, scientists need to be frank. 

A review of the understanding of the threats to the biosphere and life forms reveals worryingly that future environmental conditions are likely to be far worse than experts are currently suggesting. This is mainly because academics specialize in one discipline and are unaware of the many planetary-level relationships and potential solutions. In addition, the fact that governments reject or ignore scientific advice coming to them through institutional and sometimes private channels also prevents corrective steps from being taken, and moves that would pave the way for positive change are not forthcoming. 

On a broader scale, people should tend to think that bad things will happen to others rather than themselves. This leads them to underestimate the environmental crisis. Looking at the current state of the global environment, the problems are endless. Let us list some of them anyway: 

Since the agricultural revolution about 11,000 years ago, the biomass of plants has halved. This means that humans have completely changed almost two-thirds of the Earth's land surface. About 1,300 recorded species have become extinct in the past 500 years. Many more are thought to be unrecorded. Animal populations have declined by more than two-thirds in the last 50 years.

Globally, around 1 million plant and animal species are threatened with extinction. The total mass of wild mammals today is less than a quarter of what it was before humans began colonizing the planet.

In the last 300 years, 85% of global wetlands have disappeared and more than 65% of the oceans have been put at some level of risk.

Live coral cover on reefs has halved in less than 200 years and the size of seagrass has decreased by 10% compared to the last century.

The human population has doubled from the 1970s to 7.8 billion and is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050. More people means more food insecurity, land degradation, plastic pollution and biodiversity loss. High population density also makes global pandemics more likely. It is also likely to trigger unemployment, housing problems and inadequate infrastructure, sparking conflicts that lead to riots and war. In effect, humans have created an ecological Ponzi scheme. Consumption as a percentage of the Earth's self-renewal capacity has increased from 73% in 1960 to over 170% today. Countries like Australia, Canada and the USA, whose populations tend to overconsume, use more than one unit of fossil fuel energy to produce one unit of food. Energy consumption is therefore expected to increase in the near future, especially as the global middle class grows.

As for the climate crisis, humanity has already exceeded 1°C of global warming in the current century. Between 2030 and 2052, it will exceed 1.5°C. Even if all countries party to the Paris Agreement fulfill their commitments, warming will still be between 2.6°C and 3.1°C by 2100. 

Global policies are far from addressing existential threats. Securing the world's future requires prudent and long-term decisions. But this possibility is blocked by short-term interests and an economic system that concentrates wealth among a few. Anti-environmental policies are on the rise among right-wing populist leaders, and in many countries protest groups defending environmental rights are labeled terrorists. Rather than being seen as a universal form of self-preservation, environmentalism has come to be seen as a "weapon" as a tool of ideology. Funded disinformation campaigns against climate action and forest protection, for example, protect short-term profits and claim that meaningful environmental action is too costly, while ignoring the greater costs of inaction. Business investment is unlikely to change on a scale sufficient to avert environmental catastrophe. Fundamental change is needed to prevent this dire future. Let us offer some suggestions:

• The goal of continuous economic growth must be halted.
• The true costs of products and activities must be revealed and environmental damage must be repaired by making those who harm the environment pay for it through sanctions such as carbon pricing.
• Fossil fuels should be phased out rapidly.
• Monopolization should be prevented and markets should be reformed to limit undue influence of institutions on policy.
• Limit corporate lobbying by political representatives.
• Women around the world should be educated and supported, including with the goal of being able to control family planning.

Many organizations and individuals are working hard to achieve these goals. But their messages have not translated into legislation or economic, political and academic mandates. It is simply naïve not to recognize the magnitude and seriousness of the challenges facing humanity. Scientists must tell it like it is, not sugarcoat the formidable challenges ahead. Any other path is at best misleading and ultimately potentially fatal.

In this article, which I have compiled from the views of Noah Hariri, who has been described as a strange historian in some ways, I think we need to understand, or as the old saying goes, closely comprehend what kind of danger our world, and by extension our country, is facing. In fact, we are forcing ourselves as a human race not to understand the warnings of Harari, who has the identity of a historian. Harari is waiting for us to wake up from the world of deep perceptions by sharing with us his different and original views based on long research and reading. 

As Harari says, the future will surely come one day, the question is, is humanity ready for it? Leaving aside this question, the answer to which is for everyone to answer for themselves, I think we should wake up as soon as possible from our hidden state of 'deep sleep', which is hidden in the saying "we are going to the apocalypse". Because in order to hand over our world to future generations, who are our children, in as clean a way as possible, we must take this responsibility seriously and do what is necessary together. And sooner rather than later.

Stay with respect and love.