The future of Afghanistan, whose independence depends on 'one man policy' (5)

Afghanistan has been an occupied country for over 40 years. In 1973, with Davut Khan's military coup overthrowing the shah, all the balances in the country were turned upside down. Who will rule Afghanistan has changed constantly, depending on whom foreign powers support. After the civil war in the 90s and the five-year Taliban period that followed, the two presidents pointed out by the USA, Karzai and Ghani, have ruled the country in the last two decades, respectively. Meanwhile, it was not possible to defeat the Taliban militarily. As a result, it was accepted that "without the Taliban, it would not be possible to establish a lasting peace in the country" and the Taliban was included in the political solution equation, and the key to the country had to be handed over to the Taliban, who had been fighting against it for twenty years.

The Main Reason for the Army's Failure to Resist the Taliban

Despite the agreement it made with the Taliban, the USA expected the Ghani government and its affiliated army and police units to resist the Taliban. However, with the entry of the Taliban into Afghanistan, neither the government nor the army remained to resist. We have covered the reasons for this in our previous articles. The most important factor that we should emphasize here is the MORAL factor. There was no morale left in the state bureaucracy and security forces, so the will to fight could not be demonstrated.

Why did this happen? USA; With the February 29, 2020 agreement, he has made it clear that his addressee for Afghanistan from now on is the Taliban. Although there was an Afghan government led by Ghani at the beginning of the country, he was able to do this without hesitation. Before 15 August, all the psychological operation tools that would gift the country to the Taliban were activated by the Taliban. Keeping the army organization in a dispersed structure did not allow it to create a "center of gravity" and "concentrate force" where necessary. As a matter of fact, it was a natural result that the security forces, who could not reach their required presence in general due to the desertions, could not be present against the Taliban despite all the training they received and the weapons and equipment they had.

Experiences have shown that the survival of the Afghan state mechanism and army was not desired by the USA. The key factor demoralizing the Afghan military is the US negotiation with the Taliban. The foremost of the war principles is the MORAL principle. The moment the enemy army demoralizes, it is only a matter of time before it disperses. Against a disintegrating army, victory is certain for an army with high morale, even if its weapons and equipment are less or insufficient. For example, the glorious August 30 Victory, whose anniversary we celebrate together today, was won in this way. A decisive victory was achieved with a morally high army under the leadership of a high morale commander-in-chief against a demoralized Greek army. Happy birthday to all of us!

The people of Afghanistan, where the stones never fit, are not as lucky as we are. A formation that could stand in the way of the people of Afghanistan, fight against the USA and the Taliban, could not emerge, a true leader who could save the country could not show himself, or the conditions did not allow the development of such a leadership.

As a result, the "Afghan state machinery" represented in the person of the only man under the control of the USA, Gani, suddenly collapsed before the eyes of the world, reversing all the so-called expectations of the USA, after Gani left the country. The huge Afghan Army of 300 000 people, devoid of true commanders, could not hold on against a militia force of 75 000 people, nor was there a will to hold on.

22 000 well-trained commandos were working in the Afghan Special Forces. These were the select soldiers of the Afghan army, equipped with the best weapons and equipment. Even these soldiers did not show any resistance against the Taliban or they were not given the opportunity to show it. The words of some of these soldiers, which were reflected in the press, seem to explain the main reason for the lack of resistance, as anyone can guess:

“While we wanted to fight, we also had the strength to fight… However, we did not go to war against the Taliban because the Government did not say we should fight!”,

"The Department of Defense didn't say we had to fight!",

“The war was a political decision. President Ghani did not want us to fight the Taliban!”

As of 15 August 2001, Afghanistan remained unclaimed. As you know, an unclaimed door opens without a key. In the derelict Afghan homeland, the Taliban is now the only command.

Ahmet Mesud's Penshir Resistance

The resistance launched against the Taliban under the leadership of Ahmet Masud in Panshir lacks the necessary resources and external support for a long-term struggle. It is obvious that Tajikistan cannot provide the necessary logistical support to the Tajiks, who are a small minority in Afghanistan. Under these circumstances, Ahmet Mesud, who is eager to follow his father's footsteps, has little or no chance of success. Recently, since his education life took place in England, he became a kind of English school. It is stated that this resistance will disappear by itself if the incoming Mesud is given a good position by the Taliban that will enable him to have a say in the administration of the country.

Expectations from the Taliban

Ironically, the task of establishing a new state from the wreckage of the collapsing state left behind by the joint administration of the United States and Ghani has been entrusted to the once-terrorist organization, the Taliban.

Considering the recent developments, the Taliban's; We can say that today it is trying to find a place in the world agenda as a much more careful organization in terms of its management approach and philosophy compared to when it came to power in Afghanistan in 1996.

First of all, the Taliban is a victorious organization politically and militarily. Despite all the pressure of the USA and its allies, and the military operations they carried out from the ground and the air, it was not possible to completely remove the Taliban from the territory of Afghanistan. Moreover, the organization was able to ensure that its existence was accepted enough to put the USA on the negotiation table, and registered the rightness of its struggle to the world in its own way.

Today, the Taliban, which has become the only official interlocutor of the USA and subsequently the world in Afghanistan, has the legitimacy to rule all Afghanistan, although it is not a structure that represents all Afghans. The legitimacy of the Taliban has been recognized explicitly by the United States and tacitly by its allies. In addition, the collapse of the Afghan state structure, with the entry of the Taliban forces into Kabul on August 15, 2021, has made the Taliban a power center, religious, military and political formation that has no alternative in the management of the country for now.

Afghans; It is a people who have made great progress on the path of modern civilization with some innovative practices carried out before the 1979 Soviet Invasion. Despite their 'backward image' that is currently reflected in the world, they are a people who normally attach importance to education, art, poetry and literature. Especially with the coming to power of the Taliban in 1996, the daily life of the Afghan people has completely changed, and there has been a situation of going backwards in the country.

The past practices of the Taliban are not acceptable by modern world standards. The Taliban turned schools into madrasas. Men are required to have beards. He banned television and computers, and even raided houses. “I wonder if people have buried their electronics in the garden?” House searches were made. Severe penalties were imposed on those who even had videotapes in their home. The majority of women were isolated from work life for reasons of security, and adult girls were not allowed to attend schools. The most important practice that remained in mind from this period was the isolation of women from all areas of life.

The issue of whether or not all these rules were followed was strictly controlled by the "Afghanistan religious police". Like ISIS, which emerged in Syria after him, the Taliban, in its first administration experience, acted with an understanding that "don't care at all what the rest of the world says or will say". After all, all such outdated applications; Even the Afghan people, who have a traditionalist and religious structure, had difficulty in accepting.

The USA, which preferred to stay away from the political developments in Afghanistan in the past and evaluated that it could benefit from the Taliban administration for its energy interests; He had problems with the Taliban due to his tolerance of al-Qaeda. Mullah Omar, who 'distressed the USA' by following ambivalent and variable policies on energy, took an attitude that Osama bin Laden could be extradited in return for the diplomatic recognition gesture he would receive from Washington. This attitude of Mullah Ömer disturbed the Clinton administration of the time. The failure to find a ground for reconciliation with the US has been an important breaking point for the Taliban state system, which operates as a one-man regime, to get into trouble and rapidly lose its international credibility. Within the framework of the organic ties Mullah Omar formed with al-Qaeda, it is understood that the political protection provided to Laden was continued to the end in all cases.

When we come to 2021, we have an 'experienced' Taliban. It has become an organization with nearly 30 years of experience in learning the world, assimilating international relations, and better understanding the dynamics in Afghanistan and neighboring countries. made return possible. Taliban. Now that this "rogue gang" can really become a state, the international community will clarify its stance against the Taliban and decide whether to recognize it as a state or not.

The Taliban do not want to be isolated from the world either. Besides the USA, they are seeking to improve their relations with China and Russia, and they are in contact. Beijing and Moscow and Pakistan are giving strong signals to recognize the Taliban. rest of the world front He is especially following what the Taliban will do. Therefore, other states follow a 'wait and see' policy. Iran is also giving signs that it might recognize it.

The Issue of Unclaimed Weapons Left Behind by the USA

The USA has a tradition of "leaving a weapon" behind when withdrawing from somewhere. For example, in the 1980s, within the framework of global power balances and international conjuncture, the USA, which helped the jihadist groups fighting against the Soviets in Afghanistan along with Pakistan, and even provided them with weapons, gave stinger missiles to the Movementul Mujahideen Group, one of these groups. When the Soviets withdrew, these missiles were not returned to the CIA, only this group was put on the US "blacklist" in 1993. The group changed its name to Movementul Ansar and continued to use missiles and other weapons with an immaculate record.

There is now a much larger "unclaimed weapons problem" in Afghanistan. As you know, there is no official force called the Afghan Army. Certainly, members of the military will return to the army when new state functions begin to operate. However, it is not known what happened to the weapons, ammunition and equipment in the inventory of the Afghan army and/or the Americans left behind. In an environment where people, including the Americans, are in trouble, they are left unclaimed and are in Afghanistan as "lost weapons".

The Taliban now has access to $85 billion worth of American warfare weapons and equipment. These include some 75,000 military vehicles, over 200 aircraft and helicopters (including black hawk type ones), and 600 000 light weapons and ammunition. Also, night vision goggles, steel vests, military medical equipment, etc. less unimportant materials are also left behind uncontrollably. The "biometric data bank", which contains X-ray films of the Afghan people, has passed into the hands of the Taliban, along with all its technical infrastructure.

Terrorist Activity of ISIS's Horasan Branch in Afghanistan.

On August 26, there was a bombing in Kabul in which approximately 100 people lost their lives. This bombing incident, undertaken by the Khorasan branch of the jihadi organization known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) or Daesh, is important in that it shows that terrorism will not end in the near future, even if the Taliban is at the head of Afghanistan. The Khorasan branch of ISIS, which emerged in 2015, started to gain strength in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda, another organization that has a presence in Afghanistan and founded by Osama bin Laden, is the foremost among the armed jihadist groups. Al-Qaeda aims to free the Islamic world from the influence of the West and destroy Israel, and to establish a state governed by Sunni sharia laws in the region from Spain to Indonesia. Eymen ez-Zawahiri, one of the two assistants of Laden who was killed on May 2, 2011, is the leader of the organization today. This 9/11 active organization, which has taken over many places in Yemen, has a different position for other jihadist groups. Al-Qaeda, which announced that it had cut off all its links with ISIS as of 2014, is, in a way, an organization that has influence over all jihadist groups, including the Taliban.

Now, there may be more hardline members of the organization who might think the Taliban are 'compromising their cause'. They can leave the Taliban at the first opportunity and join al-Qaeda or the Khorasan branch of ISIS. They can also do this with American surplus weapons that they have or will pass on. The Haqqani group within the Taliban can lead this. The Haqqani network, which has a more radical rhetoric, was declared a "foreign terrorist organization" by the USA in 2012 due to its attacks on US personnel and its close ties to Al Qaeda. If such bombings continue, the USA may target the Hakkani group. This could lead to disintegration within the Taliban.

Conclusion

Without the establishment of state power and authority, the USA and its allies entered the race to leave Afghanistan as if they were fleeing. In the void they left behind, a space has been opened for ISIS, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Afghanistan is now a large playing field for such terrorist organizations, it will be a home base where jihadi groups can find the opportunity to freely ride. No matter how much the Taliban that emerged from these groups changes, it does not seem possible to leave aside the organic bond that it has with these groups through madrasah students. Therefore, the Taliban's relationship and cooperation with jihadi groups must continue.

Now, we can say that there may be no harm in getting these American surplus weapons into the hands of the Taliban. If the state will establish it, of course, it will also have a weapon. However, Al Qaeda is the mentor of the Taliban. To expect the Taliban to say "stop" to al-Qaeda, to think that they have such authority.

In this emerging vacuum, the door of the American 'Afghanistan arsenal' has been opened wide for other terrorist organizations. Some of these weapons left behind may come under the control of jihadist groups, or they may be dissatisfied with the Taliban or self-righteous in the country.

It can serve as an arsenal that can meet the weapon needs of other ethnic groups and jihadists who do not feel safe.

Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the Taliban emerged as a product of the civil war between these groups. According to Pashtuns such as Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen and Kyrgyz, if the minority groups in Afghanistan get enough weapons and equipment, they will probably not be idle. Everything that could ignite a new civil war in Afghanistan, where a people who are weary and tired of wars live, has been left in the middle by the USA.

It is too early to say that 'peace has come' in Afghanistan yet. As in the 90s, a new civil war is a strong possibility. Thanks to the madrasah-style training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan, millions of students are part of the jihadist culture. We do not know what kind of suffering and darkness awaits the Afghan people, but we can say that the whole world will continue to watch what is happening in this country as if watching a movie for a long time.

In the sixth of our article series, we will examine the country profile of Afghanistan by focusing on its demographic structure.