The future of Afghanistan, whose independence depends on 'one man policy' (6)

Historians do not agree on the exact meaning of the word 'Afghan'. Some believe it is an archaic Turkish word meaning 'between', referring to the country's location between India and Central Asia. Al-Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, while seeking ways to initiate worldwide resistance to the globalization process led by the USA, has constructed the geography of a nation that is completely outside of the world economic system as a base region for the construction of a mechanism through which it can penetrate the American national security circle unnoticed. This situation affected the Afghan people after 9/11; The US has condemned it to a stalemate 'between' the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Political Structure

According to the 2004 constitution, Afghanistan is a country governed by a presidential system. The head of government is the president. Two vice-presidents and the executive committee appointed by the president assist the head of state for executive functions. It is expected that the Taliban will decide whether this system will continue or not.

In this direction, in Afghanistan, which has an area of ​​652,000 km², the question marks about what kind of a political structure will be formed under the administration of the Taliban still remain valid. In addition to the ethnic diversity of the country, reasons such as the jihadist elements representing various factions and the intertwining of religion-ethnic structures impose a great responsibility on the new Taliban administration in the future of Afghanistan within the scope of protecting the geographical integrity of the country.

Afghanistan is a heterogeneous country consisting of many ethnic groups. No ethnic group in the country has the necessary majority of the population to establish a state with a uniform structure. A state structure that traditionally accepts cultural, religious and ethnic diversity has been in question on the territory of Afghanistan. Whether the name of the state is a shah or a republic, it has been a country that has been governed by a loose federation-type management approach based in Kabul from past to present. However, in this country, the Pashtuns, which are the largest community in terms of population, naturally have more rights in the governing mechanisms than other groups throughout Afghanistan.

A situation similar to the disintegration process of the 1990s Yugoslavia into small statelets may also be in question for the geography of Afghanistan in the near future. The traditional Pashtun-Tajik political conflict and the conflict of authority between the Central and the Provincials, which are among the triggering factors, have been among the main problems that need to be resolved in every period.

Economic Structure

Afghanistan, which is defined as 'Nothingistan' (the country where nothing exists) in international terminology, has been able to survive economically since 1980, with the support of other countries and especially its neighbors. However, before 1980, when trust and stability were partially high, the basic functions of Afghanistan, which could produce at a level that could sell food to neighboring countries, were interrupted to a large extent, with the occupation.

According to the UN development index, Afghanistan ranks 169th in the lowest ranks of poverty. There are hardly any facilities and factories in the country in the name of development and industrialization. Small scale only; Workshops producing bricks, textiles, soap, furniture, shoes, fertilizers, clothing, food processing, soft drinks, soda, cement and hand-woven carpets, coal and copper mines are the capabilities within the industrial infrastructure.

The fact that Afghanistan is a country covered with mountains topographically forces the people of the country to engage in animal husbandry. Apart from this, agriculture, especially poppy cultivation, is the main source of livelihood of the people.

The presence of the military units and headquarters of the USA and its allies in the country, as well as the presence of contractor companies, has led to a certain amount of investment in infrastructure and public works services. The United States alone has spent $145 billion on the reconstruction of Afghanistan in the last two decades.

Afghanistan; Due to the invasions and the incessant migrations triggered by the civil war, it has become a country that has to import almost everything to feed its population exceeding 35 million. Since the 1950s, Afghanistan's most important import gateway has been Pakistan.

Pakistan; As a requirement of the Transit Trade Agreement signed between the two countries in May 1950, it gave Afghanistan the right to import the commercial commodities it needed without paying any customs duty over Karachi. In accordance with the agreement, goods shipped from Karachi port to Quetta by road are entered into Afghanistan through the Chaman/Spin Boldak border gate.

This border gate, where approximately 300-400 trucks enter Afghanistan daily, is an important point in terms of meeting all of Afghanistan's daily needs in a wide range from wheat to oil. For this reason, keeping the Quetta-Kandahar highway open at all times, ensuring traffic safety Afghanistan and Pakistan of importance to.

Poppy cultivation, opium production and marketing is the country's most important source of income. Since 1972, with the close follow-up of the UN anti-drug trafficking unit in Vienna, efforts have been made to reduce the cultivation of poppy in the country and to prevent its shipment to world markets. With the cultivation of opium concentrated in the Helmand region, approximately 3 500-4 000 tons of products are obtained annually. The opium produced in Afghanistan is transported to the world markets through the Quetta-Karachi line by official means.

Afghanistan is also a neighboring country to Central Asian energy resources. It is one of the countries hosting the historical Silk Road route. The project (North-South Pipelines) to transport Russian and Turkmenistan natural gas to Pakistan and then to the outside world, especially to Western markets, via pipelines through Afghanistan territory, is an option that still maintains its importance in economic and strategic terms. It is evaluated that this idea, which has been suspended since 1996, when the Taliban took over the administration in Afghanistan, may come to the agenda of global powers and especially Pakistan, depending on Afghanistan becoming a safe and stable country again. China's acquisition of the operating rights of Gwadar Port in 2002 may also invite new initiatives in this context.

It is stated in various sources that Afghanistan is rich in natural resources. As a matter of fact, although there are no precise data on the size of the natural gas deposits, which were discovered during the Soviet occupation and started to be exported through a pipeline connecting to Dushanbe via Mazar-i-Sharif, significant reserves are estimated, especially in the northern region. It is claimed that there are 2 trillion m³ natural gas and 700 million tons of oil reserves on the territory of the country.

Other known natural resources include coal, copper, lead, zinc, sulfur, chromite, talc, barite, iron core, salt, precious and semiprecious stones.

Ultimately, Afghanistan's domestic gross national product is around $70 billion. The per capita income is $2,000. The import figures of the country, which has an average export capacity of 750-800 million dollars, are around 10 times the annual export capacity (7.5-8 billion dollars).

Demographic structure

The majority of the population (99.7%) in Afghanistan is Muslim. Muslims live according to Sunni (84.7% - 89.7%), Shia (10-15%) and other sectarian beliefs (0.3%).

According to the last census, 36.6 million people live in the country. Afghans have a very young population. 40.92% of the population is under the age of 14. 22.22% are between the ages of 15-24. The segment that constitutes the 25-54 age range corresponds to the 30.35% slice. Those over the age of 55 make up 6.51%.

The majority of Afghans speak Afghan Persian and the official language called Dari. Dari, the common language of the people, is accepted as a lingua franca. Pashtun is also among the official languages. 11% of the population is fluent in the Turkish language. Other ethnic groups, speaking their own language among themselves, lead a life dependent on their mother tongue. The rate of literate people in the country is 43%. Only 26% of the people live in cities.

Afghanistan's 2004 Constitution recognized the existence of 14 ethnic groups. Ethnic groups consisting of Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, Baluchi, Nuristani, Pamir, Arab, Gujar, Brahui, Kızılbaş, Aymak and Pasha are part of the colorful mosaic called Afghanistan.

Pashtuns

The Pashtuns, who make up about 45% of the population, are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. Pashtuns speak various dialects of Pashto/Puhtuca. The Pashtuns are an ethnic group divided along tribal lines. Mostly the cities and villages in the southern provinces of Afghanistan are the places of residence of the Pashtuns. There are also many Pashtuns in Kabul. Due to the internal migration/resettlement policies implemented in the country, some Pashtun tribes/tribes are dispersed within the country. The main majority of Pashtuns live on both sides of the region divided by the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. This border area is 2460 km long and is a mountainous region. On both sides of the border, there are tribes of Pashtuns such as Ahmedzai, Veziri, Papulzai, Nourai, generally from the Gilzay branch.

The Taliban is a jihadist group predominantly composed of Pashtuns. The organization used the Waziristan region on the Afghan side as a homeland for border crossings, so it could survive for many years in the base areas located in a difficult geography in Pakistan. the Taliban; He adopted the Islamic understanding of the Deobandi school, which is common among the Muslims of India or the subcontinent, and formed his political view in a line that reconciles the Pashtun nationalism with the militant jihadist approach. For the Taliban, especially the Pakistani madrasas attended by students of Pashtun origin, functioned as a kind of "militant warehouse" and made the Taliban dependent on Pakistan and its madrasas.

Tajiks

Tajiks, mostly Persian-speaking, make up about 25% of the population. suffix is ​​among Sunni Muslims. The Tajik people of northeastern Afghanistan have always formed a significant part of the Afghan administrative elite. Panshir valley is the traditional homeland of Tajiks. The origin of Ahmed Shah Mesud, who made a name for himself with the successful military maneuvers he organized against the Soviets, is also Tajik. Penshirs, on the other hand, are a kind of sub-ethnic group of Tajiks, who have a unique structure with fair skin, sandy hair and usually green eyes.

The Northern Alliance consisted mainly of Uzbeks, Tajiks, Aymaks and Hazaras. Especially Tajik-Hazara cooperation has always been strong and it has become a counterbalance in the country against the Pashtuns.

Hazaras

Hazaras are the third most populous ethnic group in Afghanistan. Known for their Mongolian appearance, the majority of Hazaras are Shiites. The settlement of Hazaras in Afghanistan took place in the 13th century. The Hazaras were adversely affected by the Pashtun expansion in Afghanistan. As a result of the migrations, the majority of Hazaras settled in the Hazaracat or Hazaristan region, which also includes Bamyan in the center of Afghanistan. The Hazaras, who make up about 20% of Afghanistan's population, were one of the groups that were persecuted during the Taliban period. Hazaras, who were in the northern alliance in the civil war, also had an armed organization called Hizb-i Vahadat.

Uzbeks

Led by the northern warlord, General Rashid Dostum, the Uzbeks are descendants of the nomadic tribes of Central Asia. Many non-Uzbek Afghans unfairly refer to members of this ethnic group as ex-communists. The main reason for this is that Dostum sided with the invading Soviet forces in the 1980s. In addition, the fact that the majority of the soldiers of the Soviet occupation force was of Uzbek origin supported this view. On the other hand, the majority of Uzbeks living in Afghanistan today are the descendants of Uzbeks originating from Uzbekistan, who migrated to Afghanistan in the 1920s to escape the oppression of their traditions and religion by the Soviets.

Turkmens

Afghanistan's Turkmen live in the north-west of the country and especially in settlements close to the Turkmenistan border. Other groups in Afghanistan, like the Uzbeks, have associated Turkmen with the Communist invaders for similar reasons.

Kyrgyz people

It is a small group. They mostly live in the northeast of Afghanistan and close to the Kyrgyzstan border. Most Afghan Kyrgyz are semi-nomadic and earn their living by herding horses.

Baluchis

Estimated to be around 100,000 from southern Afghanistan or Pakistan, these nomadic people are a group of seasonal migrants who work across the country and earn their living by relocating.

Nuristanis

The group living in the mountainous region northeast of Kabul, in a place called Nuristan, is called the Nuristanis. It is noteworthy that it is also referred to as Kafiristan (the land of unbelievers) in some historical documents. Towards the end of the 19th century, the majority of Nuristanis became Muslims.

Ismailis

The Shia Ismailis of Afghanistan are a religious rather than an ethnic minority, but they are defined as a regionally separate community. The ethnic origins of the Ismailis are mostly Hazara, Tajik and Pashtun.

Conclusion

There are 28 different ethnic groups living in Afghanistan. In this country, where the administrative authority is traditionally distributed between the center and the provinces, the option of reorganizing the country's administrative system with the constitution within the framework of a loose federation or confederal political structure in cantons/regions, similar to the Swiss example, may be on the agenda in the near future. It is considered that there is a need for such an arrangement in order to ensure political stability and lasting peace in the region, centered on Afghanistan.

A stable and secure Afghanistan; It can reach a position that can invite global investments with the dimension of transporting energy resources in the countries of the region to suitable points and processing local natural resources. For the near term, the transportation of Central Asian and Caspian energy resources, as an alternative route, to Pakistan and from there to the world markets via Afghanistan is important for the economic development of the region, especially Afghanistan, as well as for the benefit of the countries in the region.

Despite everything, the people of Afghanistan are going through a troubled and difficult time. The future of Afghanistan has already been 'entrusted' to the Taliban by the US and its allies on a gold platter. No one can guarantee that the civil war situation that emerged after the Soviets left the country in 1989 will not happen again.

The intertwined structures of ethnic and jihadi groups and their common history in these lands; fosters interdependence between groups. However, it is not enough to completely eliminate the fundamental divisions that serve to break the groups from each other. A security problem that "produces stability and/or instability" dominates the country, especially according to the interests of ethnic warlords and the positions of foreign powers that support them. Afghanistan seems to be able to continue its existence for now as a heterogeneous country where different ethnic groups, each with their own loyalties to neighboring countries, live together.

Afghanistan, as defined by Lord Curzon, is a country that stands out as the 'cockpit of Asia' or 'watchtower' due to its location. As Lord Salisbury, the Governor-General of India of Great Britain, first brought to the political literature in 1869, it seems that the 'great game' will continue to be played uninterruptedly, predominantly centered on Afghanistan.

In the simplest sense, it would be an inaccurate assessment to think that, despite the withdrawal of the USA, this country would lose interest in Afghanistan and its surroundings, which is one of the political, economic, military and energy centers of the world, or remain indifferent. In the medium and long term, the struggle of the great powers, especially the USA, Russia and China, to protect their influence and interests in Afghanistan and the surrounding countries will not end. In this respect, possible scenarios that could divide Afghanistan and the possibility of sharing its lands with neighboring countries cannot be ignored.

In the seventh of our article series, we will discuss possible division scenarios, in military terms, planning situations.

References that We Use In This Article:

Lak D. (2001). Analysis: Afghanistan's tribal groups, BBC, November 15, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1658073.stm>, s.e.t.29.8.22021.

CIA Factbook (2020). Afghanistan. <https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/afghanistan/>, s.e.t. 30.8.2021.

bank p. (2006). “Afghanistan’s Energy Future and Its Potential Implications”, Eurasianet, August 3, <https://eurasianet.org/afghanistans-energy-future-and-its-potential-implications>, p.e.t. 29.8.2021.