The future of Afghanistan, whose independence depends on 'one man policy' (7-End)

A delegation led by the Head of the Taliban's Political Bureau in Qatar, Mullah Abdul Ghani Brother, visited China on July 28, 2021, and met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the city of Tianjin. In the statement made by the Chinese side after the visit; “The hasty withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan actually marks the failure of US policy in Afghanistan. It also presents an important opportunity for the Afghan people to stabilize and develop their country…. Fighting the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is the joint responsibility of the international community. We hope that the Taliban will draw a clear line with all terrorist organizations such as ETIM, fight them decisively and effectively, … create favorable conditions for regional security, stability, development and cooperation.” expressions are used.

No matter from China's window or from whichever window we look, Afghanistan, which, after 20 years of the US period, looks like a void that could not be integrated into the global economy, stands before us. Again in the context of this country, a regional "power vacuum" is about to emerge in Central Asia. Question marks about how the Taliban will fill this gap continue to be valid day by day.

Why Did the USA Withdraw from Afghanistan?

As of February 29, 2020, the key to a state with a history of approximately 250 years, such as Afghanistan, was handed over to the Taliban terrorist organization, which has a very bad record, by the USA, the world's superpower, which is the so-called enemy of the Taliban.

After the withdrawal of the USSR from the stage of history in 1991, the search for dominance in Eurasia, which Zbigniew Brzezinski sees as the rightful 'booty' of the USA, continues. In this context, the new version of the historical Great Game between the USA and the Russian Federation, centered in Afghanistan, is closely included in today's China.

It can be said that this withdrawal action was carried out by the USA in order to relieve the discomfort in the American public due to the long stay of the USA in Afghanistan, which dominated the center of the field in this game, and to reduce the workload on the USA in a way.

However, it seems like the game is not over yet on the Afghanistan-based Central Asian chessboard. US withdrawal completed as of August 31, 2021, although the waters are not yet clear; It can also be read as a move related to the China-USA global power competition in the Far East and the Pacific. This withdrawal may pave the way for 'regional mobilizations' for the realization of certain scenarios that will tire Russia and China, keep them on their toes, and keep them busy all the time.

Let's try to explain what we mean from a Pentagon perspective. These speculative scenarios, which the Pentagon published in 2004 in connection with the Greater Middle East Project, and which we call the "engineering of national borders," based on social engineering, have become more meaningful and remarkable today.

The Greater Middle East Project (BOP) aimed to change the borders and regimes of 24 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the majority of which are Islamic countries. With the Pentagon's "Map" of 2004, it was thought that some parts of the borders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan would be redrawn in a time frame foreseen by the Pentagon, and border changes would be made by considering ethnic structures! '… Without going into American speculations within the scope of the BOP in this article, when we think only in Afghanistan, we consider that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan should be read as an important move towards realizing the Pentagon's dream. Who knows, maybe American strategists and quarterbacks might be thinking, "The time has come"?...

Let's hope that the Taliban has established its legitimacy in Afghanistan, that the new Afghan administration is recognized by the other states of the world as a legitimate administration, and that the people of Afghanistan have acquired a better reputation as a developed nation of the family of nations. If this wish comes true, a Taliban administration that has ensured stability and confidence in the region can bring peace to Afghanistan and have positive reflections on its neighbors.

However, we would like to look at the ethnic and jihadist group movements, up to the border changes that will be fed by the current power vacuum emerging in Afghanistan, taking into account the US Pentagon map and other possible situations. We know that these groups can draw the entire region into "wars of sovereignty" to achieve their own goals, and that they can shed disproportionate blood for the values ​​they believe in. We even assume and accept that they can act as part of proxy wars on behalf of major countries. In this context, let's try to briefly explain the scenarios we prepared by reading the Pentagon map, or in military terms, the planning situations.

Scenario 1

Pastunistan's Independence or Ending its Partition

As we explained in our previous articles, some border arrangements were made by the Great British Empire against Afghanistan of the time and in favor of today's Pakistan in order to defend the Indian sub-continent in general and to control the passageways to India. This arrangement, which was made with the approval of the Russians, divided the historical Pashtun region in the hands of Afghanistan and divided the people of the region into two.

Chitral mountains, Khyber pass and Quetta valley, located in the south and southeast of Afghanistan, were left to India (Pakistan after 1947) in line with the line drawn by General Durand. This line was also imposed on Amanullah Khan in 1893, with the force of the British, and thus Pastunistan was divided into two. The families and tribes of the same ethnic group living in the same geographical area are dispersed between the two countries. This arrangement, which made the territory of Afghanistan a buffer zone between the Russians and the British, was seen as a "division" problem that must be resolved for those who govern Afghanistan, including the Taliban.

Currently, the presence of Pashtuns, who make up 45% of Afghanistan's population, in Afghanistan is expressed as 15-16 million. The population of Pashtuns on the Pakistani side is around 35 million, twice that.

For the Taliban, a Pashtun-based jihadi group with a Sufi tradition, in the formation of a new Afghanistan, it may be possible to include Pashtunistan in Afghanistan in return for the agreement it has reached with the United States. A step in this sense that could be taken by the Taliban could undoubtedly lead to a Pakistan-Afghan war.

In the past, it has had US sanctions and political reproaches against the Pakistani governments, as it is home to the Taliban and some armed jihadist groups. There were even articles in the American press that Pakistan should be punished in this sense. Therefore, Pakistan can be 'punished' by the Taliban and the Pashtun card, and in return, India can side with the USA against China. In exchange for a partial loss of Pakistan, the United States could have numerous global and regional gains. In this context, it can be expected that the USA will be on the side of Afghanistan and support the steps that will eliminate the division of Pastunistan.

In the East Turkestan issue, if the Taliban does not allow the possible actions of jihadist groups against China, China can also take a stand against Pakistan and take a stance close to the interests of Afghanistan. He can recognize the Taliban.

Considering that such a regional-scale unification movement may also affect the Turkic Republics, which it considers to be its natural protectors, and have a dominance effect, the Russian Federation can undoubtedly approach movements towards unification with caution. Nevertheless, Russia can be content with watching this event that develops outside its control area. It can also indirectly support Afghanistan if it contributes to regional stability and security.

Thus, in addition to its natural competitor India, the USA and China can also take their place against Pakistan. Pakistan can be isolated in the region. With a high probability, the demands of the Pashtuns living in Pakistan for independence or attachment to Afghanistan may further weaken Pakistan's hand. In that case, Pakistan may spontaneously consent to a return to the pre-1893 borders, perhaps without a fight, in favor of Afghanistan.

Thus, one of the imaginary arrangements on the 2004 Pentagon map could be the "actualization" of the Pastunistan division.

Scenario 2

Balochistan's Independence

Balochistan is the largest province in southwestern Pakistan. This province is bordered by Iran in the west and Afghanistan in the north and northwest. It is a strategically important state with its 1062 kilometers long coastline opening to the Arabian Sea in the south and the port of Gwadar. 52% of the population of Balochistan province are Baluch, 40% are Pashtuns and 8% are other ethnic groups. In total, about 10 million Baluch live in Pakistan, 1.5-2 million Baluch live on the Iranian side and about 100 thousand live in Afghanistan.

In fact, there is no uneasiness that could be the basis for the idea of ​​"unifying" the Balochistan lands. However, in the manner we talked about in Scenario 1, if the US is to play with the regional balances in accordance with its own interests and expectations, it can somehow risk opposing Pakistan. Likewise, the United States may trigger ethnic mobilizations for such a coercive border change in the east of Iran, where its star has not been reconciled for many years.

Thus, both Iran and Pakistan are 'punished'. With China, which has become the biggest rival of the USA, there are strategically important trade and base acquisition agreements (like Gwadar port) signed separately by Pakistan and Iran. It may be desirable to align these two countries with Balochistan.

In addition, depending on American policies, The Balochs, whose independence is predicted to gain independence, may eventually become a country with a high 'dependence on the USA', serving US interests more than Pakistan. Iran's maritime connection and cooperation plans with China may be interrupted through Balochistan.

At the same time, China; Its deployment to the Gwadar naval base to control the Persian Gulf and secure its global trade may be prevented. The energy security initiatives that China is trying to achieve with the Gwadar base deployment can be interrupted and some of the gains that the highway project planned to reach this port through Pashtunistan can provide to China can be prevented. Indirectly, the importance of China's belt road or historical silk road route can be partially reduced globally.

Scenario 3

Return of Northern Afghanistan Territories to Turkic States

In accordance with the 1887 Petersburg Agreement, with the force of the British, the Russians accepted the transformation of Afghanistan into a 'buffer' country. In accordance with this agreement, 'South Turkestan', where significant Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen and Aymak populations are located, was left to Afghanistan. In line with the line determined by General Dirvway, the northern border of Afghanistan was moved from the Hindikush mountains in the central part of Afghanistan to the Amu Derya (Ceyhun) river further north. Thus, historical Turkestan has been divided for the second time after China's seizure of East Turkestan.

St. 1907 signed between Russia and England. In accordance with the St. Petersburg Protocol, leaving the power exclusively to the Pashtuns in Afghanistan and the exclusion of ethnic elements of Turkish and Persian origin living in the northern, western and central parts of the country, as well as the division of the Pashtuns, has always created a political internal problem for Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, this arrangement, which has benefited Afghanistan in the past; As an important division problem that led to the establishment of the Northern Alliance in the 90s and triggered the Afghan civil war, it played a disruptive role in Afghanistan's territorial integrity.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, three new states (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) emerged in the north of Afghanistan, which are bordering each other in historical West Turkestan.

Although it is very difficult for northern Afghanistan to return to its 1887 borders, according to ethnic and/or geographical evaluations, it is not impossible. The idea that the north of Afghanistan is included in the picture of 'Great Turkestan', and the idea of ​​uniting East Turkestan in the hands of China with the rest of Turkestan is a current of thought among the Central Asian Turks. For this reason, Turkic/Islamic groups living in the region against the Soviets in the past have engaged in numerous rebellion movements.

Today, this idea guides the jihadist movements towards the establishment of the 'Great Turkestan Islamic Caliphate' state targeted by religious organizations such as Hizbul Tahrir, Islamic Awakening, Hizbul Jihad, Islamic Jihad Union, ISIS Khorasan.

When we take into account China's policy of assimilation of the Uyghurs in the East Turkestan region with various methods and practices, and the fact that this country has become a global power, the unification of East-West Turkestan appears as a weak possibility in the current global conditions. However, the Turkestan basin of Northern Afghanistan was severed and given to the three neighboring countries, namely Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, together with the geographical areas in which the ethnic groups (8-10 million Tajiks, 4-5 million Turkmen and Uzbeks) live. can be considered (Note 1).

Such a redistribution may serve to dissolve the historical division of some of the peoples of the region. It can contribute to Afghanistan becoming a more homogeneous and uniform country. As a result, the process of 'Afghan nation building', which has not been realized for decades, may be completed more easily.

As a result of the unification of West Turkestan, the energies of the jihadi groups pursuing the Great Turkestan Islamic Caliphate can be shifted to East Turkestan instead of Afghanistan. This situation may relieve both the USA and the Russian Federation. Instead of dealing with the Turkic Republic administrations or Moscow, which are governed by the concept of 'one man', the warriors of the Fergana valley may be able to carry out jihadist operations elsewhere (Note 2).

After all, with such manipulations, it may be possible for Jihadi groups to be involved in actions against China in line with the goal of Greater Turkestan. It may come to the fore that these groups fight together with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Thus, the resulting 'insecurity and instability' can be exported to the western part of China by the US, indirectly through jihadist groups. To serve this purpose, the inclusion of the Hakkani and ISIS Khorasan groups in this game, which may cause problems for the Taliban in the future even though they are currently acting together with the Taliban, may relieve the Taliban's hand. Al Qaeda can also find a place in this caravan.

Conclusion

With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, A life space can be opened for these three dividing and/or unifying scenarios for the future of Afghanistan, which we have tried to explain in these lines. Considering the 2004 planning situations of the Pentagon, it is obvious that such studies are not 3-5 years old. The United States may begin to take steps for the realization of special scenarios within this scope, which are prepared in a 20-25-year perspective. Although the British policies of influence that shaped the region 130 years ago have been replaced by American policies today, it is possible that ancient British politics also supported such fictional arrangements.

If China is kept under control and the US-China conflict area is Far East Asia and the Pacific, India may also welcome such scenarios. The Russian Federation may abstain.

Smaller-scale Pakistan, Iran and Turkic Republics may try to take positions according to regional developments and develop preventive policies to ensure their own security. In particular, the Taliban may support all kinds of American initiatives in return for the support of the USA and its allies for recognizing the Taliban in the international arena and legitimizing the Taliban regime, rather than having new gains for Afghanistan.

Note 1:

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, five states were established in Central Asia. The population structure of these countries is remarkable.

40% of Kazakhstan's population is Slavic. When we look at the historical Turkestan from the window, it is a country that is partly out of the spectrum.

The population of Uzbekistan is around 25 million and 20% of this population, about 4-5 million, is of Tajik origin.

The population of Tajikistan is 7 million, 15% of the population is Slavic (1 million), 15% is of Uzbek (1 million) origin.

Kyrgyzstan has a population of around 5 million. In this country, 20% of the population is Slavic (1 million), 20% Uzbek (1 million) and 20% Tajik (1 million).

The population of Turkmenistan is between 5-6 million (it has a structure that changes due to immigration). 85% of the population is Turkmen, 5% Uzbek, 4% Slavic.

Note 2:

In the Greater Middle East Project of the USA, he thought of using the tools of religious and ethnic separatism, benefiting from various structures and the dynamics of Islamic communities. In short, as many Islamic structures as moderate Islam exist in the service of imperialism, the USA has benefited from their energies for this cause. The Russian Federation, on the other hand, turned to other Islamic structures (with messages of unity and peace) outside the periphery of the USA in order to be able to stand against the BOP and prevent the fragmentation of geographies and communities in a way that would serve its own interests.

We have come to the end of our series of articles titled "The Future of Afghanistan, whose Independence is the 'One Man'", which we started on August 25, 2021. We will follow the developments in Afghanistan. We will share our new articles with you according to the developments.

Some references that we used in this article:

CIA Factbook Pakistan (2020). <https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/9f0e552a4a3e1d5ed57cf033c1531bf9/PK-summary.pdf>, p.e.t. 31.8.2021.

CIA Factbook Afghanistan (2021). https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/a96bbbb72c8f0aa0d7e179695c630d4c/AF-summary.pdf>, p.e.t. 31.8.2021.

CIA Factbook Iran (2020). <https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/d833fdea2600888d768b17620477065e/IR-summary.pdf>, p.e.t. 31.8.2021.

CIA Factbook Turkmenistan (2020). <https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/turkmenistan/#people-and-society>, p.e.t.31.8.2021.

University of Texas at Austin Libraries, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, <https://maps.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/commonwealth_islamic_groups.jpg>, s.e.t. 29.8.2021.

Uslubaş F. (2010). From the Great Game to the Great Chaos, the Taliban and Jihad in Eurasia, Ant Publishing, Ankara

Barnett T.P.M. (2005). The Pentagon's New Map, War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, trans. Cem Küçük, 1001 Book Publications, Istanbul

Kakar A.W. (2021). “The Durand Line: Beyond Nationalist Fables”, Afghaneye, 28 March, <https://afghaneye.org/2021/03/28/the-durand-line/>, p.e.t.31.8.2021.