The future of Afghanistan, whose independence depends on 'one man policy' (I)

Afghanistan; Everything happened for almost half a century, but it could not become a "state". The perception that Afghanistan is a geography far from experiencing a favorable historical development has been embroidered in the minds of all humanity over the last half century. The lands of the Afghan people, who were not given the right to self-determination and once had a free life in an independent country, are like the crossing inn of hegemonic states today.

Your Afghan homeland was occupied by the USA in 2001 under the pretext of 9/11. The Americans raced in this region for twenty years, eliminated terrorism with their local collaborators, and brought a so-called functioning democracy to the country. At the beginning of 2020, whatever happened to the USA, he must have gotten bored suddenly, he said, "I'm not playing anymore, I'm going home." He said to the Taliban, who aspire to the administration of Afghanistan, but whose service is not clear, "take this land, even all of Afghanistan, we are leaving. Just give us a moment, pack our things and go, then hang out on this land as you wish," said Trump and then the US administrations led by Biden.

From 1996 until the arrival of the Americans in 2001, the radical Islamist organization called the Taliban ruled Afghanistan under the leadership of Mullah Omar, who died in 2013. The reason for the US invasion of Afghanistan was based on the claim that this organization was protecting bin Laden, who was seen as the perpetrator of 9/11. The USA, which has been fighting the Taliban for twenty years, the USA that wants to shake hands with the semi-radical Islamist organization Taliban; He has been at the table with the Taliban since 25 February 2019 in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The negotiations between the parties finally bore fruit, and on February 29, 2020, the US and the Taliban were able to sign an agreement that started the so-called peace process in Doha, the capital of Qatar. This agreement was called the "Agreement to Bring Peace to Afghanistan". The agreement was signed by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan on behalf of the USA, and Mullah Abdulgani Brother, Head of the Political Office on behalf of the Taliban. According to the agreement, the United States and NATO allies would withdraw all their troops, and in return, the Taliban would not allow al-Qaeda or other radical groups to operate in areas they control.

Beginning in the spring of 2021, the United States and its allies began to leave Afghanistan as if fleeing, withdrawing their forces and part of their diplomatic missions. The last day of the withdrawal was set as a symbolic date, namely 9/11.

The answer to be found in time is whether an ironic peace environment can be established in Afghanistan with the Taliban, who set foot on the streets of Kabul as of August 15, 2021, before the withdrawal, which took place as if fleeing from Afghanistan, was fully completed; It has become the main factor determining the survival, independence and future of the country.

Now the Biden administration is trying to persuade the Taliban administration, which does not even need to comply with the February 29 agreement. The United States is committed to withdrawing its last troops from Afghanistan by 31 August under the current circumstances. On the other hand, the Taliban have a rhetoric as if they could not bear to see American soldiers in September for some reason.

He discussed the US-Taliban power-sharing game, what it would mean for the Taliban to play the role of "moderate Islam", what kind of gains the Americans were willing to leave Afghanistan by putting their pockets in their pockets, etc. speaking, writing has no meaning right now. For now, let's just say "America's sheep, then the game".

Let's go back a bit, and take a look at Afghanistan's last twenty years.

It is necessary to examine the Afghan ruling oligarchy, which has been solidified under the direction of the USA for twenty years. In Duverger's words, there was a power mechanism in Afghanistan that cooperated with the "two-faced West". In order for today's oppressed nations to wake up to the realities, the events in Afghanistan serve as a school and contain countless instructive elements. The oligarchic order, which has supposedly ruled the people of Afghanistan for twenty years, backed by the USA and its allies and NATO, went bankrupt in the face of the Taliban with the withdrawal of the Americans, much earlier than the USA expected.

The goals of the US to invade Afghanistan and to be effective in state-building: to keep regional powers such as Russia, China, India and Pakistan under control, to access the Central Asian market and resources, to fight terrorism-Islamic fundamentalism and to maintain regional stability as it wishes. to ensure. For these purposes, the USA has been effective in every stage of the restructuring of Afghanistan after the intervention. No one can possibly claim that the USA will leave Afghanistan alone after the withdrawal, there cannot be a situation contrary to the nature of things.

Shortly after the first intervention to rebuild Afghanistan began, Kabul was captured on 14 November 2001 by the withdrawal of the Taliban. After a short time, it was accepted that the Taliban entered the process of collapse, although it was not cleared from all Afghanistan. Destruction of the Taliban regime On November 27, 2001, the road map for the government to be established after the Taliban under the leadership of the UN was determined in Bonn, Germany, and the Bonn Agreement was signed on December 5, 2001. The Bonn Agreement, the starting point of which is the declaration that security in Afghanistan can be established with a state-centered roadmap; It paved the way for the formation of new political and civil institutions, especially the Constitution Drafting Commission.

The International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF), established by NATO, has the most important task in terms of providing security against an authority vacuum that may arise in Afghanistan during the reconstruction of the state and supporting the country's military, administrative and legal restructuring. In December 2014, ISAF was replaced by the "Resolute Support Mission", whose primary mission is to provide training, advice and assistance to the Afghan Security Forces. Security responsibility carried out by ISAF has been transferred to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF).

In addition to the reconstruction process, the USA and its allies have not neglected to play a guiding role for the Afghan administrations in areas such as promoting development and economic growth, increasing the capacity of civil institutions, improving the justice system, improving health, education and women's rights.

While the activities of the international community were carried out in this way, the "great shura" of 1,500 people, which is part of a centuries-old tradition and consisting of tribal representatives, adopted Afghanistan's new constitution on January 8, 2004. Interestingly, it has also been decreed that the new Constitution cannot be amended until 2020. It is as if the newly established system did not neglect to guarantee itself until the Taliban-USA agreement was signed on February 29, 2020 (!).

It was aimed to establish a centralized state in the country, similar to the US model, designed according to a strong presidential structure under the monopoly of a single person. A presidential system with a directly elected president, two vice-presidents, a bicameral and an independent judiciary was introduced. The President is envisioned to act as the head of both the state and the government. The new state in a unitary structure consists of 34 provinces and around 400 districts. The governor, district governors and mayors are appointed by the central government.

With the help of the UN, the first elections in Afghanistan were held on 9 October 2004. Hamid Karzai, who received 55.4% of the votes, was elected President. As a result, Burhanuddin Rabbani, who was serving as the head of the Afghan interim government established with the American occupation of Kabul, handed over his duty to Karzai. Afghanistan's new government system has existed for years as a system that meets the expectations of the people and operates under the guidance of the US presence in the country, rather than bringing deep independence and self-sufficiency to the country. The decisive role of the USA on Afghanistan continued during the Obama era. This sometimes took the form of interfering in the elections. For example, Karzai, who received about 58 percent of the votes in the dubious election held in August 2009, was re-elected to the Presidency.

According to the constitution, Karzai could not be a candidate in the 5 April 2014 presidential election. In the election race between Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Gani Ahmadzai, Gani was elected President. As soon as Ghani took office, he signed without delay, in line with the expectations of the United States, the agreements that Karzai somehow did not want to sign, prolonging the stay of the United States and allied forces in Afghanistan. The Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States, signed on September 30, 2014, and the NATO and NATO Agreement on the Status of Forces in Afghanistan (SOFA) entered into force.

When we come to today, we need to express that the people of Afghanistan, who gave their consent to Karzai and later Gani "one-man" administrations until August 15, 2021, are now again alone with their fate. The 'one man', Ashraf Ghani, who holds all the powers in the country, instead of preventing the coming of the Taliban and leading his country on 15 August, he was in trouble for himself, preferred to flee, or he was dictated by a will to flee. In any case, the Head of State left Afghanistan with considerable wealth.

The members of the army, police and bureaucracy disappeared along with the politicians who found their place in the government power of approximately 300-400 thousand people, who were in power around Gani and whose shadow of power took advantage by paying allegiance to this single man. They have abandoned the Afghan people with their bad luck and destiny.

The Karzai and Ghani-centered Afghanistan system, which did not allow the emergence of strong personalities or members of the army who could play the role of "savior" like Mustafa Kemal Pasha in difficult times in their country, which they ruled as a single man, had to fall into the pit it dug.

2001-2021 bribery, corruption, poverty, development etc. in the country. countless problems continued to exist, and these problems were always left in the shadow of the basic security problem. Sadly, the Afghan people have to sail into uncertainty after 20 years. Is the Taliban salvation? Maybe for the Afghan people who fell into the sea, “Yes!”

In the second part of our article, we will discuss the biographies of the puppets who shaped the last twenty years of Afghanistan in the US ranks.

Some of the references that we used in this article

TRT News. (2020). “Peace agreement signed between USA and Taliban”, 29 February, <https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/abd-ile-taliban-arasinda-baris-anlasmasi-imzalandi-463947.html>, p.e.t. 22.8.2021.

BBC News Turkish. (2021). “Afghanistan: 20 years of war in 10 questions”, 8 July, <https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-57761843>, p.e.t.23.8.2021.

Acet G.S. and Dogan F. (2017). “US-Afghanistan Relations After 9/11 Events: From Invasion to Cooperation”, The Journal of Social Economic Research / 17 / 33 / 59-76, <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/ article-file/323601>, set24.8.2021.

GOODHAND, Jonathan (2004). “From War Ecconomy to Peace Economy: Reconstruction and State Building in Afghanistan”, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 58, No. one.

THIER J. Alexander (2006). “The Making of a Constitution in Afghanistan”, New York Law School Law Review Vol 51.

O'HANLON Michael (2016). “Improving Afghanistan Policy”, The Foreign Policy Brief Brookings, Vol. 2, No.1.