What is Development Road, Dry Canal Project? (Episode 1)

My article titled Development Road Project consists of two main parts. In the first part, I will explain the Development Road Project and in the second part, I will explain the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" (CPEC) project related to the Development Road Project.

Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler, in a statement he made in the media on March 11, 2024, said that Turkey is fully determined to eliminate terrorism as a problem by creating a 30-40 kilometer deep security corridor along its borders. Speaking to Milliyet Newspaper, Güler said, "In line with the framework drawn by our President, we will complete the circle that will secure our Iraq border this summer and eliminate the issue of terrorism from being a problem." he said.

Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler: “The fight against terrorism has been an obstacle for Turkey for 40 years. There is a fight against terrorism, but what really interests us is the fight against terrorists. Fighting terrorism is the duty of all state institutions. Everyone knows that this struggle has to be fought. Now Turkey needs to move to another phase. We say that we need to finish this job as soon as possible and save Turkey from this terrorist scourge. Our struggle has been continuing according to a plan for the last 5-6 years. "Our struggle will not end until the security lock is closed and the north of Iraq is cleared of terrorists."

Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler: "The terrorist organization PKK has evacuated hundreds of villages in the north of Iraq and displaced the villagers. 2 years ago, we said, 'Let's establish a joint operations center with Iraq.' We said, and they responded positively to this, but we have not taken a step on this issue yet. The fight against terrorism is also essential for the security and peace of the villagers displaced by the terrorist organization PKK in the north of Iraq. In addition, the Baghdad administration has announced the Development Road Project, which will reach Ovaköy. "He very much wants to implement the development plan. We want it too. Iraq's future also passes through this Development Path. This issue will also be discussed at the meeting in Baghdad." he said.

What is the Development Road Project?

Turkey's "Development Path Project" is a comprehensive and ambitious infrastructure initiative that aims to establish strong connections between Asia, Europe and the Gulf regions with the active support of Turkey. The strategic goal of the project is to create an integrated transportation network that will connect Iraq and Turkey, including railways, roads, ports and city centers.

The project also aims to significantly reduce the travel time between Asia and Europe via Turkey by establishing the Great Faw Port in Iraq as an important transit hub. Simultaneously, efforts are continuing in Iraq to develop the Silk Road as a suitable alternative to the Suez Canal route and to increase the efficiency of trade. With a large area of 54 square kilometers and being able to accommodate important cargo ships, it is envisaged that the Great Faw Port will become the largest port in the Middle East and will be seamlessly connected to the 1200 kilometer railway and highway network.

While the part of the project extending to the Turkish border is expected to be completed by 2025, the estimated cost is calculated as approximately 22 billion dollars. Additionally, this initiative underlines the strategic value of Turkey's geographical location, significant financial capacity and forward-looking vision that positions the country at the center of global connectivity.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced a huge transportation and infrastructure project that he claimed will connect Asia to Europe in late May 2023. With this project, it is aimed to connect the Persian Gulf to the railway network in Turkey by following a route including the cities of Baghdad and Mosul. With this ambitious Economic Corridor project, which the Iraqi government calls "Development Route" and has an investment budget of 22 billion dollars, it is planned to provide transportation from Turkey to the Persian Gulf within hours with trains with a speed of 300 kilometers per hour.

The main factor that prompted Iraq to open up to the world through Turkey with this project is the artificial border arrangement that restricts the country's access to the Gulf. Iraq, which has rich oil and natural gas reserves, does not have the limits to build a deep-water port in the Gulf. In this case, Iraq faces serious problems in the transportation and marketing of its oil reserves.

At the same time, ships departing from the Persian Gulf must sail to the Mediterranean using the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Moreover, there is a 15-day gain between the time it takes for a ship departing from the port of Faw to reach Europe via the Suez Canal and the time it takes for the same cargo to reach Europe via the Development Road. Transportation by ship takes 15 days longer, even if everything goes well. The fact that the ships setting out today have to pass through the Bab al-Mantab Strait and the fact that the Houthis in Yemen attack the cargo ships of some countries in the Red Sea using this strait makes things even more difficult, and the cargo to be delivered to Europe follows a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope in the south of Africa. causes migration. In this case, the transportation distance and time of the loads become longer and the transportation costs and transportation time also increase.

The Iraqi state tries to market its oil mostly through the ports of its neighbors such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The deterioration of relations with its Arab neighbors, especially since the 1990s, restricts Iraq's opening to international markets. Recently, China's desire and efforts to get a share from the Belt and Road Project seem to have led the Baghdad administration to such an ambitious project.

The main factor that prompted Iraq to open up to the world through Turkey with this project is the artificial border arrangement that restricts the country's access to the Gulf. Iraq, which has rich oil and natural gas reserves, does not have the limits to build a deep-water port in the Gulf. This situation causes serious difficulties in the transportation and marketing of reserves.

The Development Path project, if realized, will be an important project in terms of diversifying Iraq's economic resources and generating additional income. The route, which is expected to cost 22 billion dollars, will include railway lines and oil pipelines as well as highways. The annual return of the project, which is expected to be operational by 2029, for Iraq alone is expected to be 4 billion dollars. Considering the impact of transportation on industry, it can be predicted that it will definitely contribute to production and exports and pave the way for industrialization. Therefore, it can be said that the economic contribution of the Development Path will be much greater in the long term.

The Development Path is also a candidate to be a complement or alternative to China's Belt and Road project and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor IMEC Project. The West's competition with China has reduced the possibility of the Belt and Road project being realized. In addition, the USA was able to persuade and dissuade some of the countries involved in the project. However, conflicts on the route, especially the Russia-Ukraine war, increase doubts about the feasibility and benefits of the project. For this reason, there is still a possibility that the Chinese government will make the Development Road project a de facto part of the Belt and Road project with a new maneuver.

Likewise, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor IMEC Project seems difficult to implement since it is a far-fetched project that America offers as an alternative to the Belt and Road project. Moreover, having many hop-on and hop-off points on sea and land would not be economical or practical in the context of freight transportation.

The Development Path is supported by the regional countries of Turkey, Qatar and the UAE, and these countries are committed to investing. While the Gulf countries see the project as the shortest way to reach Europe, Turkey supports the Development Road project because it is a part of the project and has a cold view of other routes. Most importantly, the Development Path Project is a regional project and aims to develop the countries of the region, unlike the initiatives proposed by countries such as China and India, which will generally benefit these countries. In other words, it can be said that the "Road to Development" belongs to Iraq, Turkey, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia. Because, thanks to the integrated trade system, it will directly contribute to the foreign trade of the mentioned countries. Therefore, support for the project is at the highest level and it is likely that this support will continue even in possible regional disputes.

If we need to look at the biggest project in Iraq's history from Türkiye's perspective; Türkiye currently mediates Iraq's oil exports through the Kirkuk-Yumurtalık pipeline. The arrival of more oil from Iraq and the transportation of cargo from Turkish territory to Europe via the railway and road on the Development Road via the Al Faw port will provide a significant economic contribution to the country. In addition, having connections similar to the Development Road that Iraq is trying to build on Turkish territory will facilitate the implementation of Iraq's project. In other words, the fact that the Turkey leg of the Development Path already exists is a great advantage that reduces project costs.

Another benefit of the project for Turkey is that by using the Development Path as a reverse route, exports to Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and the countries on the opposite shore of the Persian Gulf will be facilitated via road and rail. Although Turkish exporters export to Iraq, they can only reach the countries in the south by sea and by air, which is relatively more expensive. The Development Road will facilitate trade with countries neighboring the Persian Gulf by facilitating transportation.

It can also be said that the Development Road Project will also improve Turkish-Iraqi relations. The two countries are experiencing problems due to the PKK's deployment in Northern Iraq. While Iraq opposes Turkey's terrorist operations, it does not have the capacity to fight the PKK terrorist organization. On the other hand, there is a high probability that the terrorist organization will undermine trade on the Development Path. However, it would not be wrong to say that the cooperation between the two countries in transportation and trade will also have a positive impact on political and military issues, and in particular, the Baghdad government will make an effort to fight against the PKK. As a matter of fact, in the meetings held between Turkish-Iraqi delegations on 14.03.2024, the Iraqi administration said that it banned the PKK and accepted that the PKK was a terrorist organization.

Regarding this issue, Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler, who pointed out the meeting to be held at the beginning of the article, said, "When we went to Baghdad, the Iraqi administration admitted for the first time that it banned (PKK) and that it was a terrorist organization, and declared it here. This is pleasing for us." "Something. Hopefully, we will have joint work from now on. We will establish a joint operations center." said.

Güler also made the following statements in his speech:

"We have been fighting against the PKK terrorist organization for 40 years, but unfortunately, for 40 years, the Iraqi administration could neither call them a terrorist organization nor ban them. Such an organization lives in their own country and they do not feel much discomfort. Before this, this issue was emphasized very excessively during our meeting in Ankara in December "When we went on a trip to Baghdad, the Iraqi administration both announced that it banned and admitted for the first time that it was a terrorist organization. The view of the Erbil administration is very positive. But these efforts are not limited to just banning the terrorist organization, there are 5-6 more energy, agriculture, animal husbandry, water works. We will continue to work to achieve developments in all of these issues through mutual studies. They have a project called the Development Road, which will start from the Persian Gulf, pass through Turkey and go to Europe. This is the most important work of our Turkey in the future. In this project, Turkish companies will preferentially do business there. "All goods coming from China will be transported to Europe through the Development Road, along with 4 highways, 4 railways and 8 roads."

Approximate Cost: 22 Billion Dollars

According to the joint feasibility study in which the Ministry of Commerce represents the Turkish side; The 1200 kilometer long Development Road Project will cost approximately 22 billion dollars. 16 billion dollars of this cost will be used for railways and 6 billion dollars for highways. In addition to these two items, there will also be extra costs incurred by the Iraqi Government. For now, only Turkey and Iraq are cooperating with the project, and other neighboring countries are expected to contribute as partners. In his statement following his visit to Ankara last week, Erdoğan pointed out that the project is open to the participation of investor countries and institutions.

What Does Türkiye Aim for Through Development?

The Belt and Road Initiative (KYG) continues to exist under the name of the New Silk Road. In the face of this huge move by China, the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) project, led by India, or more accurately the USA, claims to re-draw the route of trade routes from inner Asia to Europe. Turkey, which is in a key position on the route of KYG, is virtually ignored by being excluded from IMEC.

Although Turkey says that there is no reasonable and logical reason for keeping it off the route, we do not yet know what the policy was that caused this result. There has been no statement on the subject from the USA or India, which are the main actors of the project. Turkey, on the other hand, was content with President Erdoğan's statement and said, "There is no corridor without Turkey." He did not develop a statement other than saying: On the other hand, Turkey's constant reference to the Development Road Project appears as a route of regional importance, although it is not an alternative to KYG and IMEC.

Possible Results of the Development Road Project for the Region:

The Development Road Project is also called the Dry Channel Project, as it is planned to be built from the Iraqi Faw port to Ovacık, Turkey, through land and railway connections.

It would be appropriate to state that the problems that are likely to be experienced in the IMEC project will also be the problems that are likely to be experienced in the Development Road Project. How the project will be financed, the security vulnerabilities that may arise if construction begins, and the not-so-friendly relations between the Iraqi central government and Turkey are all questions waiting to be resolved.

Although many countries are involved in the formation of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor IMEC Project, it is possible that there may be problems in financing. It is not yet known exactly who will finance this project, which will compete with IMEC. When we calculate that the railway and highway cost of this corridor, which is expected to be called the Iraq Silk Road, is 22 billion dollars, and that this figure does not include the money to be spent on the Great Faw Port, which has not yet been completed, the size of the bill becomes clearer. Turkey promised a loan of 5 billion dollars in 2018 for Iraq to return to its old days, but it seems difficult for Turkey to fulfill this commitment due to the deep economic crisis in China.

I think it wouldn't be wrong to say that among all these impasses, the financial source of the development path once again leads to China. China's Ambassador to Baghdad, Cui Wei, is closely interested in the project and has held series of meetings with many officials, including the Iraqi Minister of Transport and Prime Minister.

As it is known, China is not a foreign or distant country to Iraq. China, which has increased its annual trade volume with Iraq to over 50 billion dollars, has become the main actor of many international projects in Iraq, not only with oil. For this reason, it seems highly likely that China will finance the Development Path. The only reservation here is how China can eliminate possible security problems due to the corridor being too long. Even though the security of the parts of the line close to the Turkish border is provided by Turkey, the security weaknesses in the inner parts of Iraq still pose a big question mark against the project.

However, in order for the above-mentioned benefits to be realized, a number of obstacles must be eliminated. First of all, the Development Path is not a project that will benefit every country. For example, the project called the "New Silk Road" may make it difficult for Iran to access the Persian Gulf and Syria and harm its economic interests. It is not yet clear what kind of difficulty Iran will pose. In addition, Iran wants to increase its effectiveness with a project called the North - South corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, how the great powers with interests in Iraq view the project is also of particular importance. On the other hand, it is highly likely that the return of the Development Path will decrease if the alternative projects of China and India are realized.

However, the biggest obstacle above all obstacles is the security problem in Iraq. PKK's hostility towards Turkey, the possibility of DAESH reactivation, and Shiite organizations that Baghdad cannot control, such as Hashd al-Shaabi, are still threats to the security of the roads to be built. Therefore, it is of great importance to eliminate threats completely or partially.

Nevertheless, despite all the difficulties, it can be seen as a high possibility that the Development Path will become operational. First of all, the project's benefits to many regional and international actors outweigh its harm. When a profit-loss calculation is made, there does not appear to be a country that could make a loss. The project does not aim to harm the interests of countries geopolitically. Therefore, the possibility of the Development Path not being successful due to the influence of foreign intervention seems slim. In this case, the main factor is that the Iraqi government must start the project decisively and make great efforts to eliminate possible obstacles. Big projects will naturally have big challenges. However, if the government in Baghdad shows its will, it will be able to build not only the Development Path but also the future of Iraq.

For Turkey, the road map that the PKK terrorist organization and its supporters will follow from now on will be even more important. Ending terrorism in the region will also help prevent the region and overpopulation movements in the region. At the same time, it will make a great contribution to the people's ability to earn their living through peace and trade, not through terrorism.

On the other hand, Iraq's geopolitical importance has increased even more with the development and lease of Pakistan's Gwadar Port by China in 2015. Because the Chinese goods reaching Gwadar will be able to reach Europe in a short time with much lower costs through the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" (CPEC) project, which will be established in connection with the Development Road Project, instead of passing through the Suez Canal and reaching Europe by sea.

The "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" (CPEC) project, which aims to connect the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China to the Arabian Sea through the ports of Gwadar and Karachi by crossing Pakistan in the northeast-southwest direction, is at the heart of the Belt and Road Initiative is taking place.