international-relations

Can the Chinese Army Dare to Invade Taiwan on August 4?

Washington needs a small war. Thus, by using the perception of aggressive China, it can lead the countries of the region to increase their armament expenditures and become a consolidated power against China. The way has already been cleared for the rearmament of Japan.

Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan:

The plane, in which the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi was aboard, landed in Taiwan despite all warnings from China. The US Navy sent eight F-15 aircraft from Japan on patrol near Taiwan with the support of refueling planes to prevent possible Chinese interference with Pelosi's plane.

China, which made this visit a national problem, alerted its army and put its warplanes in a state of high readiness. It completed the deployment of amphibious operational elements on the Fujian coast, the closest point to Taiwan. He magnified this event to the extent that he nearly landed in Taiwan. Despite Beijing's objections, Pelosi, who came to Taiwan, was welcomed by 700,000 people. In the first response, China increased its cyber attacks on Taiwan, numerous sites crashed, and communications across the country were disrupted.

From tomorrow, especially on Thursday, China will carry out a major exercise that will virtually blockade Taiwan. According to reports based on Chinese state sources, Beijing; It considers it necessary to hold these military exercises in retaliation for Pelosi's visit to the island of Taiwan, while also maintaining its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

US National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby also said the American view on this issue: “The United States will never allow itself to be intimidated.” explained as. While the world's two largest economies face each other with their military power around an artificial agenda, they do not hesitate to make this a matter of national pride.

Background of China-Taiwan Tension:

China's conservative nationalist president, Chiang Kai-shek, lost his civil war with the Communists led by Mao Zedong and was exiled to Formaza (today's Taiwan) by Mao with his supporters. Thus, two different 'Chinese' states, coming from the same national origin and anti-thesis of each other, came to the stage of history. The first is the colossal communist-ruled People's Republic of China, or more commonly known as China, founded by Mao. The other is the nationalist Republic of China founded by Chiang Kai-shek, commonly known as Taiwan. China has never recognized Taiwan, it has always seen this country as its own territory (One Nation Policy). In a way, the Sino-Taiwan 'civil' war is not over yet. The historical background of the tension between the two countries and my evaluations, dated October 20, 2021, "China's Close Target: May Be Adding Taiwan to Its Territory." I mentioned it in my post. Details can be found at this link:

https://strasam.org/analiz-ve-raporlar/analiz/cinin-yakin-hedefi-tayvani-topraklarina-katmak-olkazan-224

In the period of Xi, who came to power in China in 2012, this country increasingly turned to military power structuring. It may be time for Beijing, which is at the top of the world economic system, to turn to power policies that will ensure its national interests in its immediate surroundings. China has already reached a level of military strength sufficient to allow itself to win a possible regional conflict. For this reason, Beijing, which has been constantly increasing its military capacity to achieve its goal of annexing Taiwan, has made today's Western world uneasy.

Chinese Military Tension Policy in the South China Sea

Washington, which supported structures opposed to communism during the Cold War; He stood by this country so that Taiwan would not be invaded by China. Taiwan must cooperate with the United States and its allies to maintain its independence against Greater China. China, which has not been able to seize Taiwan for 70 years due to the American presence in its region, is waiting for the appropriate time to resolve the Taiwan issue, which has increased the tension between itself and the USA.

Considering Washington's traditional containment policy of China, the Taiwan-US affinity makes Beijing even more uncomfortable. The American presence and alliance formations in the Indo-Pacific region (like AUKUS, which was established on September 16, 2021) put a barrier in front of China's regional interests. of the USA; Efforts to consolidate political and military cooperation with its allies in the region (South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, etc.) are seen as a threat by Chinese policy makers.

Beijing; He will not fight the United States unless he has to.

In any case, it is the traditional policy of American administrations to prevent hegemony in Asia. For China, keeping a hostile America away from its inner circle is its first priority.

Beijing; He doesn't want to go to war with the United States unless he has to.

However, Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing. It is a question of national sovereignty and territorial integrity (one China policy). Therefore, the main goal for China is Taiwan's incorporation into its territory. A Hong Kong-like participation is necessarily desired by Beijing. Will 70 years of disconnection allow this? No doubt it does.

However, if China succeeds in annexing Taiwan with the "peaceful use of force" and convinces the administration of this country, this will serve both to increase its global reputation and to achieve its historical ambition despite the USA.

On the other hand, if China resorts to force, even if it takes Taiwan, it will not be able to save itself from the "invading power" definition, demonization and sanctions that Moscow has fallen into. Unlike Russia, the Chinese economy, which is dependent on foreign sales to America and Europe, will inevitably face a major shock.

Despite these global losses, the only payoff from such an invasion would be Beijing's partial removal of American soldiers from its inner circle. To some extent, in the current power struggle between the USA and China in the South China Sea, the superiority of the situation may pass to China.

However, in the face of a China capable of annexing Taiwan, it is unthinkable for Washington to remain silent for the sake of greater global interests. The Biden administration, which considers separating the Autocratic and Democratic administrations with a thick line, will be able to support Taiwan from the outside, at least similar to what it did in Ukraine. Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia etc. It will have an opportunity to consolidate and consolidate the surrounding countries against China.

Beijing, III. Far Away From the Level of Readiness to Start World War II

China is not yet a military power that can compete with the United States. Going to war with the United States and its allies without Russia on its side would undermine its global interests. Even if not in the short term, its economy will also deteriorate in the medium and long term. Looking for today.

China can fight if it has to. However, it is not yet ready for this. It has only been able to complete a force structuring enough to win a war with the USA that it can only engage in in the South China Sea. The US Navy will not want to enter this narrow sea unless a vital situation develops. Bringing aircraft carriers into the South China Sea would be the suicide of the American navy.

After all, if China launches a global war, it would be a unique opportunity for the United States. A US leadership, which may be able to attract all the leading countries except Russia, Iran and North Korea, with the rhetoric of "just war" against a China that has not yet gained power, is in question. It is highly possible that World War II will be victorious, similar to the first two wars.

However, the possibility of losing American hegemony against autocratic China, which seems certain to have a stronger military structure in 10-20 years, is such a strong possibility. If war is going to break out, Washington probably wants it out now. Every day delayed is against Washington.

Aware of this situation, Washington needs a small war. Thus, by using the perception of aggressive China, it can lead the countries of the region to increase their armament expenditures and become a consolidated power against China. The way has already been cleared for the rearmament of Japan.

Will China Attack Taiwan on August 4?

In a very slim chance, China could attack Taiwan.

In the great struggle that started between the West (Democracy) and the East (Autocracy); In order to act together with Russia, it may attempt to invade Taiwan tomorrow despite all its negativities.

China may set its calculus on the high probability of avoiding the US occupation of Taiwan leading to a global war. Indeed, the United States does not shed the blood of American soldiers for any country, except for its own global interests, unless there is a direct attack on its own country. It hasn't shed yet. The most recent example is Ukraine.

China's greatest situational advantage is its geographic proximity to Taiwan. There is an asymmetrical imbalance between the Chinese-Taiwanese military power. China, which has a military power superior to that of Russia compared to Ukraine; It can keep Taiwan under fire, which is open to missile launches from its main continent. With the strategic attacks of the Fighter-Bombers, Taiwan can easily defeat the air power. Then he can start the naval campaign.

The only factor that could hinder the invasion of Taiwan by amphibious operation is the US military presence in the region, especially aircraft carriers. In order to keep the Americans and especially aircraft carriers out of the South China Sea, Beijing has built 7 artificial islands, each of which has a military square, in recent years. This has made the islands a kind of fixed aircraft carrier. In a possible Taiwan operation; The biggest military formation that can give China regional superiority over American forces and eventually facilitate its invasion of Taiwan will be the Chinese military bases/deployment on these islands.

However, it may take several years for the Chinese Army to fully occupy Taiwan. In the inner parts of the island, there are high mountain ranges like the Taurus Mountains parallel to the main continent of China. The Taiwanese national insurgents can prevent China's full domination of the island with their guerrilla tactics. China can overcome this situation without growth in the short run only if it uses nuclear weapons.

An Invading China Serves US Indo-Pacific Policy

On the other hand, looking at the issue from the Washington side, it may seem "wise" in the short term to put China in an aggressive position and use this to punish Beijing. However, I consider that Washington does not aim to fight China for the near term, but to push this country into the ranks of the Russian Federation. If Beijing plays tricks on Washington and takes a course similar to Moscow's attempt to invade Ukraine and attacks Taiwan, it will serve the US's global policy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Possible American policy against a Chinese attacking Taiwan:

• It supports Taiwan externally, similar to what it did in Ukraine.

• The Ukraine offensive was used to consolidate the Eastern European countries. Likewise, the Taiwan attack is used in the Indo-Pacific region to pave the way for a further consolidation of the American camp against China.

• Major sanctions, similar to those made against Russia, are initiated against China.

• Although China, whose economy is dependent on foreign trade, does not experience financial problems in the short term, it may be rendered unable to sell goods to America and Europe in the medium term. It may be possible for China to lose its current global dominance in the field of economy.