Could the Russians Launch a Nuclear Weapon Attack?

1990's:

It was the cold war years until the end of university, the USSR and USA conflicts in the news, the nuclear war missile race, the Berlin wall, Pink Floyd's "The Wall" album.

Then the cold war ended, the Soviet Union dissolved and a new state emerged as Russia.

I used to read a lot of books in middle school, Russian classics were a bit heavy, but I read a lot of them. I have also read many other novels. For example, "Grapes of Wrath" by John Steinbeck is one of my favorites. And of course, children's books, like Jules Verne's "Two years of school vacation". I'm not counting the books I've read now.

I think I read it in those years, one of the books I read caught my attention, I still remember it as if I read it yesterday. For some reason I don't remember the name and author of the book. But the plot and especially the ending impressed me a lot. Let me talk briefly.

What I Remember From A Book I Read:

Our hero is a scientist. A great war broke out between the two poles in the world, our hero developed a biological weapon, he managed to get out of the atmosphere with a spaceship before the mutual weapons were thrown, and after the situation calmed down, he went back to the earth to examine the situation.

There is no life on earth, all the buildings are in place, but not just humans, but no living beings.

They knew that with the intelligence obtained before the war, the other side was conducting experiments on monkeys. Since there are no borders anymore, he wonders what stage they have come to and goes to the opposite country. He finds his labs. Laboratories find the place where the experiments are carried out by passing through long and wide tunnels that are connected to each other underground, and examines everything. Lots of gorilla skulls opened. In experiments, they transplanted human brains into gorillas. Meanwhile, outside the door, a squad of gorillas realizes that they are walking in a single file through the tunnel at the right pace. It says they were successful. He follows them without being obvious, watching the group passing by the door. On the other hand, he regrets that the biological weapon he made did not affect the gorillas. If they hadn't fired their missiles first, he thinks they would defeat his country with these gorillas. Although the war ended badly, everyone on both sides died, but only they could die. Thinking about these, he decides to return to his own country.

Another surprise awaits him on the way, in a town where children aged 12 and under live. How could it be, he thinks that the biological weapon he developed was supposed to kill everyone.

He sets up a trap and catches one of the boys. He faints and returns to his country, to his laboratory. He takes blood samples, genetic information, etc. from the child, examines it. After long investigations, he realizes that a vaccine given to children at birth 12 years ago has neutralized the biological weapon he developed. He just sits down and changes the formula. He tries it on the kid and makes sure it works.

Yes, this book stuck in the back of my mind, I really forgot its name, but it impressed me a lot. It's been a long time to talk about it briefly. I wouldn't be deceiving you if I said I'm still under the same influence.

In those days, I thought, how can a person be so cruel, so cruel just for the sake of science. Can a person be so deprived of love, is this really the psychology of some scientists? I was really upset that they could only focus on the subject they were working on and ignore human life and consider even innocent children as subjects for their studies.

I Landed in Moscow in 1995:

Yes, years have passed, after the cold war ended and the Berlin wall came down, I came to Russia to work in Moscow. September of 1995.

At that time, I saw those wide tunnels in Moscow, the Moscow subway is one of the few subways in the world, I wrote about the subway before. It is truly magnificent, magnificent.

Of course, when I came, I understood that everything is not so great in Russia.

The years of communism were beneficial for them to establish their infrastructures well, even when the parliament building, the white house, which they call the white house, was bombarded with tanks from the bridge, the subway was running and did not stop. Power plants, central heating, standard residences similar to each other even if they are in minimum comfort, heavy industry, educated staff, cultured people are all works of communism time.

Although all these had positive aspects, according to the signed contract, when we passed through the arch in the middle of the building on the main street, on the back side of which we entered to construct the new building, to the inner garden, the view from the front and the back of the building seemed to belong to two different worlds.

All these years have passed, this Russian mentality has not changed yet. I think the habit of making the visible side magnificently beautiful and leaving the back side smashed, actually the habit of showing off, is a habit from the cold war years.

Still, as I said, the infrastructure is solid, not just the physical infrastructure, education, state order, institutions, administrative system, all. It's just that they're having a bit of a problem with the written norms these days, it's been inextricably confused since it's been changed for adaptation purposes, I hope they fix it over time.

I think all this show is done out of necessity, partly as a result of a deeply felt fear and limited opportunities.

The Primary Threat for Russia Is Actually China:

When they have such large lands, especially when they have so much underground wealth, the Russians also know that the real danger is in the east, especially in China. It is a huge threat to Russia, already some areas on the border with China have actually been invaded. They try to control it, but it's not enough. They are on good terms for now, but you never know what time will show. They can even enter into an ally against China with the arch-enemy USA.

Yes, the United States, its arch-rival behind the mask of NATO, did its best for the collapse of the Soviet Union for many years, but the giant country, which was reborn as Russia, still continues the cold war with the potential food on the table, the resentment of not being able to do what it wants. It smashed some, but not enough.

While China stands out as the main threat, for the United States China is a threat that must be eliminated, but Russia is more like a tasty dish to fill the plate than a threat.

Of course, in order for Russia to become a delicacy on the plates, it must first go through a series of processes.

Previously, it was tried to be taken under control with loans given to every country, but Russia got rid of this trap in a short time by activating its rich underground resources.

Russia, using its geographical advantage, became a cheap enough energy source for Europe with the agile mind of former KGB employee Vladimir Putin, who took the lead, while improving its economy, adapting to modern technology, which he could not do on his own during the cold war years, and filling his coffers as a capitalist individual of the new world.

US Actions Against Russia:

Meanwhile, the USA did not stay idle, and narrowed the NATO circle around Russia by gathering many former Warsaw pact countries, which had gradually declared their independence, under the umbrella of NATO. Putin said in a conversation that he was deceived because you promised. He regretted that you said only East Germany.

Of course, this did not stop, the USA, on the other hand, did its best to weaken Russia by causing confusion in Central Asian countries, Georgia and Ukraine, the aim is to narrow the circle again.

With unexpected speed, Russia suppressed all these conflicts in time. First Georgia, then the Crimean peninsula that was annexed from Ukraine. Things seem to have calmed down in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan for now. The problem is still not sufficiently resolved, but they did not cause the loss of power as desired by the USA. The US's provocations in Armenia to kill a few birds with one stone were resolved by not resisting the rightful motivation of Azerbaijan and Turkey, under the guise of an impartial attitude, by making concessions in a sense, but by stepping in at the desired stage, again just in time and without losing military power. was pacified. The main purpose of the USA was to get both Turkey and Russia to fight by interfering in the situation in Armenia, so that with the loss of power on both sides, maybe they would sell weapons to us, and it would get one step closer to what it wanted by putting Russia in trouble.

It didn't work, Russia showed the whole world who has a say in the region by excluding both the USA, Europe and Turkey with a timely intervention, and nobody was upset.

That's why they decided to drive Russia, which they couldn't cope with yet, to the swamp they prepared in time, like hungry lions that surrounded an elephant in the field for now, and then they decided to eat it.

Ukrainian Marsh and Russian Losses:

Ukraine is really a swamp for Russia. He loses power with every move he makes, and as a general disease of one-man regimes, with the misguided army around him, Putin also made serious mistakes at the beginning. Due to the fact that the military experts and staff overestimated the strength of the army, it first dispersed and attacked Kiev. He kept the front too wide. The fact that the operation was revealed before the planned time with the information leaked to the US intelligence also played a major role in this error. But with his quick wit, Putin quickly mastered the situation and switched to Plan B. He replaced the entire staff in the middle of the war, even the army commander.

For now, they don't show all the losses in plan A in the news in the country. It is understandable when all press and news sources are under control. By making necessary restrictions on social media and the internet, it is doing its best not to lose public support by pumping nationalist discourses through the press, which is under control for now. It also succeeds in this, because the situation in Russia is not like ours. Putin's method is not to polarize to stay in power, to exploit conscience with religious rhetoric, not to show animosity, but also to be thankful for yourself.

He knows how to silently eliminate those who oppose by showing his charming face to every part of the public. He kept on good terms with the oligarchs who exploited the rich underground resources and ensured that he remained in the administration for many years. If there are cracks among the oligarchs, he still knows how to deal with them silently.

He is a HERO in the eyes of the people, with his show of power and his strong Russian rhetoric once again. Even the name of his party is "United Russia". You get the message of unification, not polarization, even from the name of his party.

Sanctions on Russia and Measures Taken by Putin:

The public is taking every precaution to prevent them from being affected by the embargoes, the markets are still full of products, yes there is a certain increase in the prices of some products, but the prices of basic foods are compensated, and those for luxury consumption are not unbearable.

In particular, there is no change in state-controlled electricity, water, natural gas prices, transportation costs, that is, gasoline and diesel prices, metro fees, trolleybus, tram and other public transportation fees. Daily life is the same now as it was before the war, you don't feel any difference. Everyone is at work.

On the other hand, in order to prevent the collapse of the country's economy, it strengthens its connections with Japan, which is an alternative to energy export, especially in the Far East, and with its border neighbor China, which also needs intense energy. There was no objection from either of them regarding the sale of natural gas and oil in rubles. For a while, pipelines and necessary infrastructure constructions have been continuing in the far east of the country, in the Amur region, that is, in the region closest to Japan parallel to the Chinese border. These are strategic projects.

Under these conditions, Ukraine has been a headache for Russia for a long time, as the elephants are not afraid of the swamp, even quenching their thirst by getting the water they need, and cooling off. it worked for it too.

The ruble move, establishing its own swift system, making new connections for energy exports, and returning to domestic production with the effect of embargoes were advantageous. Russian-made materials have already been used in many projects. All projects are being revised, and everything needed in daily life, from water pumps to electronic systems, as well as building materials and establishing their own internet system, turns into Russian goods. This situation has already started to have a positive effect on the public as a factor in the revival of the economy in the country.

I can say that even we were positively affected. They recently called for the natural gas that could not be connected to the daça for years, they asked us how to build the line, they would probably lay a line a year later.

Russia continues to challenge the world with its moves:

Yes, going back to the war, as I said, Russia is taking firm steps forward in Ukraine. He expands the blockade by saying, "This is me for Ukraine, I will get what I want, even if it is difficult, no matter how much you help, but I will eventually reach my goal." I've written before, it can take a breather, most likely the Black Sea coast and the east of Ukraine, where the Russian-speaking population is concentrated. In the last move to convince the Ukrainian people, they started to distribute Russian passports to those who can speak Russian without ethnic discrimination, they don't even ask questions, they just need to know Russian. My guess is that they will soon extend as far as the Transdnester region on the banks of the Dnester river, blockading the city of Odessa from above and completely dominating the Black Sea coast. Odessa can't last very long, as they have already turned the port from the sea. Thus, the first stage plan is completed. If the situation comes to that stage, I think that both sides will agree to the situation and they will start to sit down and talk about peace terms, at least there will be a ceasefire, albeit temporarily.

In the war, Russia did not put its reserve forces into action for the time being. The groups conducting the conflicts in the field are Ramzan Kadyrov and Chechen forces, who are deadly loyal to Putin, whom he put in power after the Chechnya conflicts, Buryats living around Lake Baikal in the far east, Kalmyks, the Mongol minority living in the north of the Caspian Sea and remaining from the time of Genghiskhan, and many other minorities in the east.

Putin is not yet taking the Russian ethnic armies, especially around Moscow and Petersburg, and the Russian troops in other big cities into the war.

Yes, after all I wrote, let's come to our main question, it has been really long until here.

Our question:

Would Putin use nuclear weapons?

In order to find the right answer to this question, I had to explain the situation in such detail. Sorry, it is not possible to make an accurate analysis otherwise. All cards are supposed to be on the table.

As we know, Putin has openly declared that he can use his nuclear power in case anyone tries to interfere directly with the issue. In particular, the images were presented to the press with the adjutant following him with a bag in his hand.

Let me first say that this is not a bluff. A move on the chessboard.

Putin is a leader who has been meticulously trained by the Russian intelligentsia, in a sense, by the deep state of the Russian intelligentsia, and who has given priority to the rebirth of Russia from the ashes when the time comes, saying Yeltsin, step aside. A true leader.

It is obvious how accurate this operation was.

First of all, a person who loves his country very much, he started his job years ago with a young and fit mind as an intelligence officer, and he is still in good health and sanity. He's taken a while, but at least he knows which way to turn after his speech, so he doesn't fall into a frame trying to shake hands in front of the press.

Neither blindfolded Hitler nor as ruthless as Stalin, at least not on the face of it. Although he made some wrong moves on the chessboard, he managed to get rid of the difficult situations he fell into successfully every time for now.

He is not at all lonely and in the psychology of evil, like the monster scientist at the beginning of our article. He has a family, loves his children and wife very much. He was able to hide his family from the press, but here everyone knows who they are. Even though he is not officially married (though maybe he was secretly married, who knows, no one knows yet) he has a family and a father, he also knows, he has nowhere to live outside of Russia. Now he wants to hand over the task to the next specially trained person. However, with so much knowledge, only he is able to make the right move in this perverted world order for now. He is aware of that, if he did not intervene, the country would become food for lions.

Sometimes circumstances dictate certain things. We all know. We do not even hurt the ant, but we lime the tree trunk so that it does not harm the tree, if they find a way to enter our house, we prevent them, if they have built a nest in the middle of the garden where we planted vegetables, maybe we poison them.

Would Putin use nuclear weapons?

I don't think he would, but he showed that he was serious enough, because he had to.

When playing on the chessboard, we may sometimes have to exchange queens. I think he just took the position, he won't make the exchange move himself, but put the queen in front of the other queen. He left the move to the other side. He said, "Either check your own queen or if you provoke a little more, I will not hesitate to change the queens in the next move."

It is currently the opponent's turn to move. Will he scare away his queen? Otherwise, I don't hesitate either. If you change, will he leave the move to Putin again so that you can change?

Let's see, we'll wait and see.

Have a nice day.

Love and regards from Moscow.